Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Some of the age breakdowns for the latest Red C/SBP poll yesterday

Age 18 to 34 - SF: 32% --- FF: 17% --- FG: 12% --- GP: 10% ---SD: 9%

Age 35 to 54 - SF: 42% --- FG: 14% --- FF: 12% --- GP: 4% ---SD: 4%

Age 55+ ------ FG: 28% --- SF: 25% --- FF: 19% --- LP: 6% --- GP: 4%

Not typically, but as more and more of those "well-paid services sector workers" can not afford homes either the resentment is building and so is SF voter base.

Housing is the single biggest issue and it shows.

The youngers just have more votes split off to more social policy led parties like SD and Greens, which has always been the way with the youth.

As you get older its all about money, housing, health, taxes. All things that current 2 incumbents have totally screwed up throughout successive governments. 35-54 are old enough to remember it.

55+ are old enough to have profited off it!

It's not that want anyone wants to vote Sinn Fein. It's more the fact that a vote for FF or FG isn't worth a **** for anyone under 40 working and saving hard for their own house for past 10-12 years. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.

Puts to bed the argument that existing homeowners want to see higher house prices. It would appear that most in the country now see that high house prices are bad for them and the economy

This will literally be the end, FF/FG have spun and spun and couldn't get it done I don't have any truck with people being unhappy with them. But the parties your talking about have policies where the costs are going to cost the average tax payer they are going to be on the hook to pay so much more for our social welfare trap that a large % of those working will feel they are working so that those who earn less or don't work at all are allowed to stand on their shoulders to access housing and other benefits. This cannot end well the math will prove this and it might be a self fulfilling prophecy that SF will bring in a recession that so many on here are looking for but it will only be for those who are already paying through the nose currently and paying for everything

Further update on this:

1. Open viewing on Saturday was first showing of property
2. Opening offer came in this morning €40k over asking price (opening bid)
3. EA was fairly candid and explained to me that it was an elderly couple downsizing

It’s insanity. How can I compete with that?

FG and FF still have plenty of support. It may seem like the out of control market is a huge problem, but to someone who is sitting in a mortgage-free house that is worth multiple times what they paid for it, it's not a problem at all. If a problem doesn't affect someone directly, it's not really their problem; that's just how humans are. Thus, many will still still vote for the candid neo-liberals in FG and FF. Everyone else will vote for the useful idiot lefties in the other parties.

Anyways, what will really change? The civil service largely runs the country, and those people are not elected. There is no housing crisis to these people because this is a direct result of policies that they put in place; this is what they want, and they will not give it up without a fight. The only thing that will "fix" the shortage of housing is some global even that kills demand. Then, and only then, will prices fall. What could do that? I don't know.

The cheap cash is gone….rates have already risen on the back of ECB announcements…SF will need increase taxes to pay for it…whatever they give with one hand they will takeaway more on the other hand with increases in tax unless you are on a low wage and then you will get cheap accommodation.

if the MNC’s are impacted then it won’t just be immigrants impacted it will also be Irish people and an increase in social spending requirements which will also equal higher tax.

What is it with your belief that we needed to repay our national debt? It would make more sense to default and start afresh than even try to repay it. Just look at how astronomical it is ludicrous to think we would ever repay it. Furthermore, why would we repay our own central bank and how would we repay our central bank unless we took the cash out of assets ((eg property) which is where a lot of the borrowing has gone via government spending on propping up the market)?

The cheap cash is not gone, the ECB controls the printers and has billions more to give Ireland post-covid to help get the economy moving again. This borrowing was stated to be available the whole time during covid when we were paying billions to people for sitting at home and for businesses to not trade so to claim there is no more free ECB cash is to basically claim FF and FG were lying and thereby squandered our only chance to avoid a hard crash when this whole charade gets found out by using that ECB cash for investment in the areas of the economy badly needing to be brought up to scratch. Another reason that FF and FG are not the solution and need to be replaced from power as they have not insulated our economy or property market from another financial crash by diversifying the revenue streams in the economy and by not allowing the housing market explode to ridiculously overvalued, unsustainable levels once again.

The trigger for the whole thing, including our property market, is most likely going to come in the major US stock markets (as our economic performance is more aligned to the US than the EU) and the (as I have mentioned before) shadow banking industry with structured notes, ETFs and derivatives which reference the major stock markets having margin call / liquidity triggers in the event of market declines, which are likely going to occur when the Fed raises its rates aggressively and unwinds its QE. A big investment bank will tank (my money is on DB) and there will be contagion across other major banks which will trigger a liquidity squeeze and panic selling as assets decline. The scale and speed of the liquidity squeeze in assets will be terrifying and the regulators will be acting to try to catch falling knives. However, as with 08, the damage done won't be undone for a few years afterwards no matter how shortlived the "recession".

Inflation won’t be 8% by the next election and the ECB will have reintroduced restrictions on gov lending that were relaxed during covid but none of that info will ever be included in sound bites. And people won’t read budget proposals that are unrealistic…just look at the no of social housing and budget allocations…do you honestly think houses can be built for less than 150k.

you never answered my question when I asked how you believe SF will lower house prices to back up your claim in your earlier post

And basically anyone else than Martin as leader of FF would take it to cling to power.