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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Interesting stats but it is a site with a vested interest and that's not how much money Russia is getting. I don't think EU countries are quite ready to test their population's resolve by just cutting off Russian supplies without alternatives, especially as we are already looking at close to double figures in inflation.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,298 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    It might have been part of the plan initially, but post unexpected Ukrainian resistance and the crushing sanctions on Russia I'm not sure it's so clear now. Let's say they did grab the oil and gas reserves, which IIRC are mostly in the West of Ukraine. They have to take and hold Western Ukraine first. No chance. Then they have to get the stuff out of the ground, facing ongoing insurgency while doing so and then they have to find buyers for it. Russian Ukrainian oil and gas would be unsellable.

    The puppet government won't work either. It didn't work before, it really won't work now. Nobody would recognise or deal with it and again you have ongoing insurgency from well armed militias and the general population being constantly supported by the West.

    They simply can't reduce the country to rubble and outside of Mariupol they haven't really tried. The main centre of Kyiv remains intact, power and comms still on and Russian forces are well in range to be able to hammer that. They did fire on Kyiv to a much greater extent early on, but much less so of late.

    IMHO they're angling for leverage in peace talks. They can go back to their home crowd claiming they got rid of 'nazis' in the Donbas and Maruipol, likely get to keep the Donbas, Ukraine and NATO off the table for the foreseeable. Job done. They don't need to install a puppet government or any of that and can't do it anyway.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,812 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    For any aviation nerds on this forum:

    I've noticed a massive increase in light aircraft movements across Poland over the last week or so. Their pilot training has gone into overdrive with the Airforce Academy and private academy flying single and multi-engine variants every day from dawn till dusk. Many of the aircraft are of the two-seat, very light aircraft type ( for example, the C-42, which is, by coincidence, the type I'm trained on). But the really interesting thing is the amount of flights that fly right up to the Polish-Ukranian border, just beyond and around the Lubaczow region. Now, I'm not suggesting that there is anything fishy going on, but it might be a good exercise for any OSINT folks to track the daily movements of some of these very light, STOL aircraft. It would be interesting to compare their takeoff weight to their landing weight on any given flight that ended up meandering around the border regions.

    Or maybe my imagination is running out of gear....lol

    Screenshot_20220323-074718_Flightradar24.jpg 34114223785_9af40799e9_n.jpg




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,812 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    There are thousands of perfectly good weapons in storage at the Curragh. You'd be surprised what they have lying around.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,592 ✭✭✭Field east


    I am not aware of any other war where one Soverign attacks another Soverign by physically invading it and the attacked soverign does not try to invade the attacking soverign



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,592 ✭✭✭Field east


    Could the staff be surrounded and kept on site until the threat of chemical use is over . Could apply to POW also



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228




  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That might work great against military units on an open battlefield,but not against military in a city with civilians,and also why western choppers have a laser guided version with pinpoint accuracy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,592 ✭✭✭Field east


    The guy did not get time to fully make his point. Her question was inappropriate IMO



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    Perfectly legit though, contrary to belief the 2014 EU arms embargo was a bit of a farce and wasn't a proper arms embargo, see my post from 2 days ago:-




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    There was a Ukrainian MP on 6.1 yesterday, also confident that they will win, in time. Part of that confidence seems to come from her OH in the field, describing Russian troops as useless. She also asked for a no-fly zone to speed it up. At this stage such confidence is not completely misplaced.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,633 ✭✭✭brickster69


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Russia’s Defence Ministry has said Russian forces hit a Ukrainian arms depot outside the country’s northwestern city of Rivne on Tuesday, destroying an arsenal of weapons and equipment.

    All a bit pointless as they can be resupplied very easily from the West but it can be spun as a part of the success in demilitarising Ukraine. Meanwhile the Russians run down their missile inventory.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    You say Ireland has "a lot of anti-tank weapons": I mean no, we don't really. We have less than 100 Javelins in total across the entire Irish Defence Forces. We might have around 1000 AT-4s; but Ukraine has already been sent some tens of thousands of AT-4s and equivalents to supplement whatever existing stocks they had. Any offensive military capability we could supply would be tiny in comparison to what it is receiving and has already received.

    It's a somewhat pointless argument in any case since sending offensive weapons would be a much more clear breach of our military neutrality; even though some might argue sending armour and fuel could already be construed as such.

    Aside from all of this the original point made was that we should "show solidarity with Ukraine" and my argument was that our actions have already shown significant solidarity with Ukraine; sending a tiny number of offensive weapons is hardly going to make that solidarity any more... solid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,592 ✭✭✭Field east


    WHAT A DEFLECTION POST along with other similar posts. Russian children will NOT starve if Nestle pull out. The Russians will find other food types that every country have been using for hundreds of years - how do you think society ‘ survived / thrived ‘ to date. So GET BACK TO THE ISSUE AT HAN D



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    One of the replies appropriately said bringing beauty to chaos.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,592 ✭✭✭Field east


    Are u forgetting that every little makes a contribution to the development of a ‘Big Picture’.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    I like their updates but Russia seem to have been reorganising for about 2 weeks now, to no great effect.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,298 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Stuff like this kinda reminds me of watching TV reports from Russia's invasion of Afghanistan when I was a kid and the Mujahideen fighting back and how we cheered them on. Even Rambo got involved. 😂 That aged badly as the 90's rolled along and the new century beckoned.

    Now these are no Mujahideen as far as alien doctrines and attitudes go, but let's just say the same above member of parliment would have more in common politically with The National Party here in Ireland than FF/FG/SF. Her main political drive has been anti corruption in Ukraine and she was dragged out of her car one night and very nearly beaten to death by thugs with the support of the government of the time for her work there. And it didn't stop here. Very cool and brave isn't in it and the above current stuff shows she's lost none of that.

    However she started her political life in and as the press secretary of the Ukrainian National Assembly party, a far Right outfit. Her since murdered by the opposition husband was a member of those Azoz lads. Then as her views matured she ended up in the National/People's Front, a very conservative and nationalist Centre Right party. In Ireland and I'd bet by many reading this thread they would be seen as much more Right than Centre.

    Like I was saying earlier when some were pointing out that other European nations have more neo nazi and far right groups than Ukraine, in that part of the world they simply don't need as many as the mainstream parties are more Right wing and conservative and nationalist anyway. Certainly more than many if not most centre Left and Liberal Irish people would be exactly comfortable with. Now Ukraine has been changing and much of that down to a real desire to look West and join the EU. EG attitudes, if not legislation have softened to LGBT rights considerably over the last decade.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,125 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "But the volume that you give… for one week we use in 20 hours. We have so many occupiers, our military calls them locusts." Zelenskyy

    I don't think Ireland or any other member of the EU should be neutral in the face of this. Solidarity doesn't prevent deaths and casualties - it's a cowards way of soothing their tiny conscience.

    The Ukrainians want more aid and you are saying 0-1,800 AT4s wouldn't make a difference when everyone else is sending enough - well they aren't.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    Well I suspect medical equipment, ambulances, helmets and body armour might prevent deaths and casualties to some extent.

    And in case you hadn't noticed the EU has been supplying weapons; Ireland just chose to make its portion of that donation to not include weapons. If you're arguing for the EU to dive into Ukraine and fight the Russians well that's a slightly different thing.

    I mean I'm not opposed to Ireland doing more to help Ukraine but I don't think sending offensive weapons is going to be of much material help to Ukraine in the grand scheme of tings; and is also at odds with our long-held military neutrality. If we had a few medium to long-range Soviet SAM systems which Ukraine badly needed I might have a different view.

    EDIT:

    I mean they're even asking explicitly in their message for anti-air capabilities and cruise missiles; none of which we have.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    Well a Ukrainian minister claimed that Poland is actively preparing for a Russian invasion so it wouldn't be a surprise if their training is ramping up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    Sergei Lavrov speaking a short while ago at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations has said even a peace keeping mission will risk war with NATO!



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes only russian «peacekeepers» are good enough offcourse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    At least he's being consistent with his veiled threats. On present evidence that imaginary war would be extremely brief.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It's a pretty far-fetched notion when they can't even secure a few small eastern Ukrainian cities and they'd have to get across western Ukraine first.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,298 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Historically Russia and the USSR before it has been fond of spouting stuff like this to judge Western responses to them. Kinda like the way they send in conscripts first. To soften things up and judge the opposition. Like those Russian TV shows with ranting old farts straight from Soviet central casting going on about invading Poland and the West and nuking Washington. It's all spin and smoke and a way for them to try to hide their true aims. They can always deny afterwards anyway.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭ARX


    Renault isn't the only French business still doing business in Russia: Decathlon is still trading there (something to think about if you're planning a trip to Ballymun) as well as the Leroy Merlin DIY chain and the Auchan supermarket chain.

    Liberté, égalité, fraternité indeed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    Worrying signs that Russia might have badly compromised Kyiv's air defences; at least one S-300 launcher and possibly more claimed to have been destroyed yesterday in Northern Kyiv:

    And then today what might be Russian SU-25s spotted attacking targets in Northern Kyiv uncontested which they haven't been able to do since the start of the war:

    It's also possible they're Ukrainian SU-25s I suppose; it's impossible to tell from the video.

    This is my main concern about Ukraine's ability to keep Russia at bay; that their air defences just will be whittled away and Russia will be able to use their air superiority much more effectively all throughout Ukraine. All while the West takes its sweet time getting them the anti-air capability they've been constantly asking for.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil




This discussion has been closed.
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