Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Thats interesting, in two years time where will Putin be on the world stage? What condition will Russia be in, economically and militarily-wise? As things are going, I'd say that now is Putins last throw of the dice, and he will throw everything he has at it. Ukraine, on the other hand in two years time, while maybe still structurally damaged ( but with rebuilding well underway) and with a completely re-equipped military, and a force to be reckoned with in their own right. Putins days of rolling his army up to and crossing the Ukrainian border are done. When whats left of his army go home, it will be a one way trip.

Migrants from third countries in the Middle East and Africa have been turning up in EU cities claiming they are students in Ukraine in order to obtain refugee status, and in France, up to one in three claiming they are fleeing from Ukraine are not Ukrainian nationals. Arrival figures include more than 7.5% Algerians, 3.5% Ivorians, 3.5% Moroccans, 2.5% Indians, 2.5% Kyrgyz, 2% Congolese, 1 5% Cameroonians, 1% Pakistanis, but also Nigeriens, Chinese, Guineans, Angolans. Many people arrived by bus, from Berlin in particular, but also by train or by plane, also arrived by their own means in other cities. So refugees are arriving by plane in France from a war zone. it doesn't clarify if they are arriving from outside of the EU.....

Refugee status does not depend on nationality!!! But the facts still remain, there have been non-EU nationals in the past decade who have taken advantage of the humanitarian crisis and are now cynically exploiting the genuine suffering of people fleeing from a real war to enter the EU illegally. The leader of the Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Åkesson democrats called for a pause on all Non-European refugees entering the country in order to prioritize those who need urgent help, Ukrainians. This is a country that took immense pride in the country’s decision to accept 16.3,000 refugees in 2015, most from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and has accepted an extremely high number of migrants from other countries over the years, and have paid the price for it too.

Lukashenko has sent thousands of migrants to its border with Poland to provoke and antagonize the EU over the past two years. The EU is aware he is weaponizing migrants and using them as political weapons in response to the sanctions the EU put in place for his actions against political opponents and protesters. Now Lukashenko appears to be utilizing the war on Ukraine for his "hybrid war". On Tuesday, March 15th, in the section Poland-Belarus PSGKuźnica, four groups of illegal immigrants crossed the border into Poland, 23 foreign nationals: from Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Syria were detained. This month, there have already been 624 attempts to illegally enter the territory from a distance.

Among Ukrainian refugees are those who are economic migrants who will rear their heads later on down the line as we have seen on a thousand different occasions across Europe as a result of Merkl's infamous mistake in 2015. The Paris terrorist attacks in 2015 are an example of how a number of the attackers had come to Europe through Greece posing as refugees and how one of the terrorists Abdelhamid Abaaoud had sent a scout to "map out" the migrant route into Europe prior to the attacks. In an interview with BBC's 5 Live Investigates team [link]. A Libyan security advisor Abdul Basit Haroun had warned Europe that the Islamic State was sending operatives to Europe posing as refugees. This was ignored. Surely to God, the past 6 years have woken them up....it appears not!!

Regarding how Russia is paying some of it's interest payments obligations. It looks like certain national regulators could be allowing them to pay if they have the money, i.e. if Russia owes X an amount in Euros to counterparties Y and they have it. Again it seems to be based on a wide range of factors. Will see how this progresses over time, and payments can range in complexity.

Russian banks are sanctioned. If they have money in international custodians (which most do) then it's usually blocked.

This asset block also includes hundreds of billions of good assets held by the Russian central bank.

The March crop for Ukrainian farmers continues to be a bumper one

The sanctions on Russia will not be what people are expecting. There will be a lot of superficial stuff like western companies pulling out, but the Iran deal will give Russia an out AND the sanctions that do stick depend on enforcement. With regards to Iran, the USA hasn't bothered that much to be ruthlessly effecting the sanctions. The same will happen with Russia. Over time, Russia will develop workarounds and learn to exploit loopholes.

It will not bring about the collapse of Russia. It may cause enough disruption to foment internal dissent, which did happen in Iran but was brutally supressed.

Look at North Korea. Heavily sanctioned, cut off from the world - still able to build ICBMs...albeit the last one didn't make it very far in testing.

Today is the 8th anniversary of the annexation of Crimea

 On 17 March, following the official announcement of the referendum results, the Supreme Council of Crimea declared the formal independence of the Republic of Crimea, comprising the territories of both the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, which was granted special status within the breakaway republic.

I'm not allowing myself to be optimistic. I'm still afraid that Putin will win simply because he has so many more troops and so much more equipment.

I really hope you are right. I am just afraid of letting my desire to see Ukraine win or at least hold off the Russians make me too optimistic.

Never mind your sky sabre. The big guns are really being rolled out now. Things are getting serious

Please god. Indications are that everyone survived but as yet not fully confirmed by the Ukrainians. Had a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach reading about it earlier

Supposedly in Mariupol....so Russians making some inroads there

North Korea has to really fight to keep everyone inside their country that they can. Russia will have issues implementing that again and in any case would simply become a joke of a world power.

Often when you face apparent feared evil head on its never as strong or as fearsome as you originally thought. I don’t think the Russian army grassroots have the stomach for this fight. The Ukrainians have it in shedloads. Plus they have very high tech support from abroad if not direct boots on the ground