Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

So if there is a recession and demand hits the floor building slows up due to consumer spending down as high unemployment building materials prices will fall especially if coupled with a property crash in China. But I'd like to know who pays for the house built with the higher cost materials at the higher price. Will they let it sit there or sell at a loss.

How's the Hang Seng Index going today?

I disagree that emigration is necessary for housing demand to be quashed.

For me, there are two interlinked areas where demand will (pretty likely) be hit that don't involve emigration as the main factor (at the same time, I think younger Irish people in their 20s who are renting are likely to emigrate in a rather surprisingly high number now that covid is over);

1) Cost of Housing - as standard, all new build apartments to rent in Dublin cost around 1900/2000 for a 1-bed, 2200+ for a 2-bed etc; this is the standard and not the luxury lets. Sure there is demand for housing, but quite frankly not at these levels if these are the standard prices for new rentals. Therefore, demand won't continue to exist if this is the lowest cost for rentals in Dublin, let alone if rents keep going up. No refugees, average-salaried workers, students, Brazilians/Indians etc. will be paying these rents.

2) Population Growth - a lot of our housing demand in the future is based on population growth but population growth projections are based on immigration for the most part. Therefore, a slowdown in immigration will hit our demand for housing. Where would a slowdown in immigration come from? A few places; big tech employee growth in Ireland could stall due to increased regulation, international tax alignment, wfh and cost of hiring employees in Ireland.

The most likely scenario is a Japanese style stagflation, prices slowly creep up over the next decade, immigration slows but doesnt stop, inflation keeps ticking over.

Everyone ends up worse off, but slowly. There is no big event, no crash or building boom to rectify things. Just a slow decline of living standards and affordability. House prices in this country are not good, but do I believe there will be a bargain in 5 years time? 100% no. If you are dead set on buying in Ireland, then I would buy sooner rather than later. Otherwise consider looking abroad for better bang for your buck (and quality of life in general).

Lofty, boomy, frothy.

Interesting, if you note the factors below as the reasons for the huge (and probably unsustainable) growth in house prices, logic alone would indicate that removing these factors would stall or reduce house prices; and these are factors which are disappearing or have disappeared.

The interest rate rises can easily be embedded into models so the market can predict the future. What can’t be predicted is how much and how fast the fed will shrink its balance sheet.

Tbh it’s really deflating trying to buy a house in your 30’s being mortgage approved and having cash deposit is literally irrelevant in this market.

Ive lost out of three properties now because of “cash bidders.” So much money floating about you’re immediately on the back foot and it’s insane how consistent this is

What is effectively happening here is the State is the one who pays for the apartments; firstly, NAMA was handed the property, paid for by the State via a bank bailout and now the State is paying NAMA indirectly via social housing leases. While the fund just sits there and let's the State do all the work. It's almost cannibalistic or incestuous and all functions to inflate the property market.

The big loser is the taxpayer, yet again, whether it is via this two card trick of the State to squander vital tax revenue into the property market instead of investing it in infrastructure or whether it is what comes after the next crash when the State has no money and can't borrow cheaply because it squandered its cash and borrowing that it had in the good times.

Edit: and to add that the fund will then sell the apartments at the end of the social housing leases if they want, potentially to the State which could mean the State has paid for these homes three times over. Another reason why our housing market is a scam.

yes, there are many vacant properties all over the country, some are currently uninhabitable, or simply arent available for rent or purchase, but yes, we re currently experiencing one of the most serious shortages of properties the state has ever experienced, so yes, there is a housing crisis!

Probably holiday homes or similar 2nd homes - the housing crisis is only for poor people!

Spain isn't western?