Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

So they work and the tax payer still pays them welfare its still costs the tax payer money that they should not have to pay

Small developers would have difficulty finding funding to develop as banks are reluctant to lend to property development because of the capital they would be required to hold. This isn’t dictated by the government but by a Eu directive to prevent risks that caused the ‘08 crisis.

Everybody gets it. Working or not. That includes homemakers and retired people, too. It’s taxable so benefits lower earners more but provides security and flexibility to middle and high income workers. But yes it would cost some amount of money and I don’t know enough about it to say how much. I’m not a hard core proponent, I just think it’s seems like something that would have a lot of benefits. Was curious whether others had an opinion.

You know what will happen in Ireland. Everyone will get it except the middle income workers, who will have to remain working to pay for it for everyone else

How good of an artist do i have to be to get it?

More money for everyone = more inflation for everyone

Not to mention the extra taxes needed to pay the initial UBI payments also. The only way UBI benefits small businesses, is by them paying less than minimum wage and allowing UBI to cover the difference. Not exactly a progressive outcome.

Also not sure what it would have to do with property prices.

Finland trialled it and then left it, if the scandis can’t make it work we have no hope.

How would you implement it and how is it to be paid for these are the questions that will have a consequence for someone else who has to pay for it? I mean is it like your tax free allowance you dont pay tax on x amount or the rate of UBI?

gas up 39% electricity up 27% in April ... some serious rebudgeting and belt tighetening on the way in irish homes and businesses on the way ...

anyone over paying for celtic tiger priced nose bleed houses at the moment till the dust settles would want truly their head examined ..

KBC report for consumer sentiment says otherwise. Consumer sentiment has being falling since June 2021, all this food and energy inflation will make it worse. I do believe wage growth is some industries has being what you say, but the average wage inflation is very small. Personally I was on the side that a wage inflation spiral may occur but I am now leaning on the side of a deflationary recession looming over us. Blackrock, Goldman Sachs, Citi group and Credit Suiss all after getting roasted by the sanctions imposed on Russia not too mind the Stock market crash in China as well as in Blackrock's case their exposure to the Property sector in china that seems to be going wallop. Once the Quantitative tightening starts and interest rates rise (and they don't have to rise that much) we may see a stock market sell off in the western world as these Inflated asset classes at the minute are Crypto, US Stocks and Housing. This recession most probably will dampened demand and help with the energy cost inflation but the food price inflation caused by the Ukraine Russia war and fertiliser raw materials shortage will still mean food inflation is here to stay at least for the next 3-5 years. Worth noting that the last time the federal reserve raised rates (by only 0.5% increments) in 2018 they only got to 2% and the US stock market was down nearly 25% across the board. Then Donald Trump put pressure on the Fed Chairman Powell to do a reverse on the rates and lone behold the market started to climb again.

So if a Wallop of a recession comes it will be bad just as bad as 2008, therefore unemployment and poor job creation will mean lower demand for housing and negatively affect their price by how much no one knows. One thing that does slightly bother me about this is what the central banks will do if this happens, will they resume the status quo and start QE again and lower rates, I somehow doubt they will be able to do this as they will still need to really reduce their balance sheet from the covid QE stimulus. This really could lead to a lost decade like in Japan.

Grand. I'll just live with me ma until i'm 40!

High Unemployment, Quantitavtie tightening food price inflation asset bubble collapse, If what I said in previous post occurs I do believe banks will be extremely cautious on credit and borrowing. If demand destruction happens, and raw material cost falls in terms of building materials, who will buy the houses built that cost €400,000 to build when compared to a house that cost €300,000 to build. Also who will take the hit if it is the developers and or contractors. The knock on affect from Roadbridge has yet to play out but I presume the building materials suppliers, Subbies, Consultancy Firms will get stung. The knock on affect of even small insolvencies have a habit of snowballing very quickly.

You won’t have QT with high unemployment.

Overall Construction costs are never going to fall 25% we may seem certain materials fall in price but not all especially not if we do enter a war time economy where these commodities will be in high demand.