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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    And the core elements of this 'win' would be recognition of the 'Russianness' of Crimea and the Donbas and a commitment by Ukraine never to join NATO.

    Zelinsky has signalled his willingness to concede on both but would have to get some alternative guarantee of Ukraine's future security.

    So what could this be?

    One suggestion I saw was to arm Ukraine to the back teeth with everything bar WMD, effectively make them another military superpower. Would likely involve building a Korean-style DMZ along the Russia-Ukraine border. I wonder could this be built up to a point where even the most reckless Russian leader would never consider invading again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    Keep talking in crankish rather than English by all means, you're only discrediting yourself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,023 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I don't know enough about the Ukraine to say whether they should fight or not. They're best positioned to judge that for themselves. I hope they win or achieve some kind of advantageous stalemate and that Putin is diminished.

    But here in Ireland I have opinions on neutrality, censorship, ousting Russian pianists from concerts, accusations of sedition/treason/'pro-Putin'-ism thrown around like confetti.

    Its a seamless continuation of the hysteria against first restrictions-breakers, then the unvaccinated.

    I don't want a political culture based on demonisation and rotating between scapegoats.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,777 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    What's the end game here if Russia do eventually achieve some sort of Ukrainian submission?

    Russia won't have the resources to support and police Ukraine. We're going to be looking at an even bigger humanitarian crisis but this time one the West won't be able to help with..

    Is the plan here just hoping Ukraine can somehow survive this with a combination of economic sanctions and a supply of Western arms?

    Any sort of Russian success here is going to lead to some real questions needing answers in Brussels and Washington..



  • Posts: 25,917 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I asked earlier on the thread but got no answer; any "definition" of genocide I've seen has basically spelled out that for an actual genocide to occur is pretty much impossible and hasn't ever happened. It's a completely meaningless term.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 894 ✭✭✭Bayonet




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,777 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Well you can attempt a genocide. You may not ultimately be successful but you can kill a lot of people in the process.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Hypothetically if Russia were to be "successful" in Ukraine. We now know that Putin could invade other non-NATO countries, e.g. Moldova, with impunity. Using the spectre of nuclear war to protect them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,156 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Yeah, the cities are being encircled alright, and given enough time Putin's army will likely be able to conquer the country, but this conflict appears to be taking a lot more out of the Russian forces than Putin anticipated. Given the economic sanctions being imposed on Russia, and that will likely remain upon the country if he insists on following through with Ukraine, I don't really see how much of an appetite for war can be sustained in Russia. Maybe the people can stay majority on Putin's side, but the economics of the thing can't really be propagandised away.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Starting from nuclear weapons, you would swear the world just woke up in last two weeks to Russia having nukes (Putin waving them around is sign of weakness and desperation) news for everyone losing their rags about nukes, they had them for long time (and might work as well as the tanks we seeing from Soviet era)

    Eh of course the world knows who has nukes, including Russia and Realpolitik and conflicts around the globe since both sides got them have been based on that fact. Their tanks work well enough. They drive around and shoot, unless they're being nicked by Ukrainian farmers. The biggest stick he has are nuclear weapons, if anything is going to get the grease that's the squeaky wheel that will.

    Hitler had that eras equivalent of nuclear weapons in form of chemical and biological weapons which he could have rained on London etc, he didn’t, neither did allies both opted for conventional weapons

    Actually both considered their use and the Germans used gas on a few occasions. It came damned close to being used more widely, circumstances and happenstance saved the world from that. However their level of destruction is paled by the nuclear threat.

    going back to your spotty recollection of history, Putin had his anchlus in form of Crimea, Donbass is his Sudetenland and Ukraine is his CZ

    Really bad comparisons. The Germans took all three with relative ease and even held onto them until near the end. putin's Crimea was a close run thing, his Sudetenland is not his and resistance is strong and he's unlikely to take his CZ never mind hold it.

    he using the exact same nazi propaganda and tactics of repression at home adapted for the modern tech

    Here we agree.

    Keep in mind I’m not calling for a no fly zone, that should only be done if he uses a WMD in Ukraine until then there is plenty that could be done to cut off Russia from world including literally blockading their shipping and extending sanctions to any country that trades with Russia

    I'd agree with that too, though would avoid a no fly zone like the plague, because he is begging for that. It would be a very early or late Christmas present.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,761 ✭✭✭maebee




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    From the Guardian, speculation on Putin's health/condition:


    Western intelligence believes that Russian president Vladimir Putin’s personality has changed dramatically over the past five years, with the 69 year old Russian leader displaying increasing and obvious paranoia about his health.

    But while the shift in character is marked, intelligence sources say, there is an underlying mystery about what could be the cause – with explanations ranging from cancer, Parkinson’s disease, the onset of dementia or the use of steroids for treatment of another condition.

    “The big tell that Putin is concerned about his health is that he is so obviously worried about coronavirus,” an intelligence source said, citing his insistence on sitting at a distance from foreign leaders like French president Emmanual Macron, or some of his own key figures, such as defence minister Sergei Shoigu.

    He only met China’s President Xi Jinping last month after elaborate coronavirus precautions were taken on both sides.

    “Coverage of Russia is pretty good from both a human and signals intelligence perspective,” a Western source added. “But there is a grey spot when it comes to Putin’s personal health. What we know is that there has been an identifiable change in his decision making in the past five years”.

    Speculation about Putin’s long-term health is widespread amongst Russia experts in the West’s intelligence agencies.

    Similar claims were reported in the Mail on Sunday over the weekend, but ultimately there is no firm evidence to back up any of the theories circulating. Putin is believed to have had three Covid vaccine treatments. One Western source said he had taken the Pfizer vaccine, although the president himself said in June last year that he had received Russian Sputnik jabs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭wandererz


    This so surreal. It's like watching the series "Colony".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,508 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    No, but at least he's publicly stating his feelings on it. Like we are doing on here.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think Putin can eventually take the cities through Siege tactics, but it looks like he'll not be able to take the entire country, especially if Russia is reduced to a 19th century economy.

    He'll surround Kyiv with tanks. He'll surround towns in the West of Ukraine with Horse and Cart.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,156 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @wandererz

    It's like wabs z0ptching c

    yes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭wandererz


    Would be a good thing if for St Patricks Day the Ukrainian flag was flown instead or alongside.

    And rather than the green being projected across the globe, the blue & yellow was instead.

    Or perhaps the Ukrainian flag with a shamrock.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Even if nuclear weapons didn't exist, war with Russia wouldn't be a small matter and victory wouldn't be guaranteed.

    If nuclear weapons didn't exist NATO would have likely enacted a no fly zone. In open conventional war the Russian airforce would be a smoking wreck within 48 hours, their radar sites and artillery craters, their logistics burnt husks and their army in rapid retreat within a week. They are so far behind the NATO forces and especially the Americans the outcome is barely debatable. If even a batallion strength of British or American marines crossed the border today, I'd bet they'd be noticed pretty quickly on the Russian side.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,156 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Invading forces don't usually have to literally control every bit of land. The main thing is putting boots in the major urban centres - the places of economic and political importance. And Putin's forces may be able to take those in time - how much I have no idea, but what a headache it'd be trying to hold onto them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,508 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    If anything this invasion has put to bed the myth of the Russian superpower. Its a country run by d1ckheads who happen to have nukes.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭deise08




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,029 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    So looks like we're seeing the M.O. for Russian occupation of the country. They kidnap local mayor of town/city, accuse him/her of "terrorist activities", replace with Russian puppet mayor.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,422 ✭✭✭Snooker Loopy


    RTE platforming Irexit activist Karen Devine on the Brendan O'Connor radio show, hosted this week by Dearbhail McDonald. Devine talking absolute drivel, claiming there is a "partition between Ukrainian speakers and Russian speakers" in Ukraine and referencing the discredited fools Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer in admiring tones. McDinald did not challenge her.

    Two weeks ago Brendan O'Connor platformed David Horgan, who argued against sanctions on Russia and trotted out the standard pro-Russia tropes. Horgan is an energy industry corporate type who was involved in setting up a LNG terminal in occupied Crimea. O'Connor never mentioned this.

    Is it any wonder that pro-Russia propaganda spreads in society when you hear this absolute bollocks going without challenge on the national broadcaster's main weekly current affairs discussion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,784 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Victory wouldn't be guaranteed, is that a joke?

    NATO would decimate Russia's armed forces in about 48 hours in a conventional war.

    Nuclear weapons are 101% the reason there's no intervention.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭cheezums


    Russia will back off this unwinnable invasion and claim they achieved their objectives or some rubbish. Not after a massive amount of indiscriminate destruction though. They will keep forces in donbas and crimea.

    Western sanctions will continue.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    There have been a lot more public demonstrations against that gobshíte than seen in Russia against putin. I get the strong impression far fewer support him than support putin and this war will harden that further. Lukashenko in the last few years has lost all of his curated facade and looks and acts like a joke puppet of putin. He didn't even make his pet a general in the Russian army. 😂

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,296 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Yeah, the yanks have such a surplus of military hardware their national guard (reserves) are better equipped than most standing armies, even their police forces have more military hardware than many armies have

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭wandererz


    Ha!

    Not sure what happened there.

    Corrected now.

    I meant to say:

    "This is so surreal, it's like watching the series "Colony" "



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  • Posts: 6,583 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So your usual anti vax conspiracy theory "news sources" have started providing military assessment now, with the same level of accuracy.



This discussion has been closed.
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