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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,395 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The UN needs to adapt then doesn't it or become redundant like the League of Nations. Where there's a will, there's a way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,028 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    In my opinion, he has a stronger hold on effective propaganda than any of his predecessors, especially since 2011. Polls have shown that Russians, by a large majority, support his manufactured narratives. This is a man who openly poisons people with trademarked Russian nerve agent. His grip is extraordinary.

    The average Russian seems to be either helpless (arrested if protesting) or apathetic or supports Putin. Of the two key groups, the oligarchs and the strongmen, the oligarchs have shown they are impotent, their fate is entwined with Putin's. The strongmen support the war. Maybe the economy crashing down the line will get normal Russians to wake up and risk 15 years in prison for protesting about it, but I don't know. Perhaps something in the mid-level (with the military) could happen. Not holding out any hope for either really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,402 ✭✭✭corkie


    US is said to believe Ukraine can keep control of Kyiv for another 4 to 6 weeks, according to NBC News

    US intelligence believed the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, could hold out for at least another month.

    The official said that Russia's troops were considered capable of encircling Kyiv in as little as a week but that the latest estimates by US intelligence — subject to change — were that Ukrainians could maintain control of Kyiv for another four to six weeks.

    I assume that the convey of vehicles, now disperse to shelter has sorted out there supply chain?

    CNN 'Staggering': Retired general on Russian convoy's tactics


    Bluesky: ATProtoViewer ~ PWA + #Bookmarks + bsky share feature.
    ^^ My latest github pages experimental code.
    Sorry for neglecting boards, but got absorbed into creating this the last two weeks. (Source code available).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,028 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Yeah but it would involve removing Russia as a permanent member, which China would not allow to happen. The UN does do good work around the world, but in these types of situations, it has bark (for global optics) but not much bite.

    Maybe some new global group will emerge out of the ashes of this conflict.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,734 ✭✭✭seenitall


    “I don't think anyone is claiming it was deliberate. It's possible it went out of control. Seemingly the Tu-141 surveillance drone is Soviet built, but Ukraine is the only known operators of them. Given that it's a surveillance drone, the mere fact that it crashed anywhere indicates a severe malfunction.”

    (The quote function not working for me for some reason.)

    From what I understand from Croatian media (and being an absolute army missiles ignoramus), the crash itself needn’t be a malfunction as such, it has to do with the drone’s range or something. The malfunction happened when it went out of control in the first place. I wonder how that happens. And I wonder which side it was!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,028 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    We don't know if they have sorted it out, but they are moving again. There's always a chance they could be a "ruse" to deflect attention away from the south (although Kyiv is definitely a key strategic goal of Russia) but indeed I reckon they will try to make moves on Kyiv in the coming days. The Ukrainians are pulling counter-attacks, so this whole thing could be slow. The Russians seem to be terrible at doing anything fast, but are having more success taking it "slowly", however the slow approach is heavy on morale, attrition and logistics



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,028 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,528 ✭✭✭All_in_Flynn


    Goes against my better judgement but I'll respond.

    Sure, Russia are shouting everyone down and handing out threats to the west. But in reality, the West knows they are all bark and no bite with those threats. The west is still supplying Ukraine with state of the art weaponry by the plane load.

    Make no mistake about it, Russia are struggling here. They are inching forward due to brute force but they won't be able to keep sustaining these losses. Putin thought they would have control of Kiev weeks ago. He's not even reached the city, is struggling to get control of others and when they do get control they are struggling to keep it. They are getting a little desperate, hence the increase in 'noise'.

    The West cannot get into a direct conflict with Russia for very obvious reasons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Lavrov is a head the ball. In almost every Ukrainian city except for Lviv, the preferred language of the street is Russian.

    The Ukrainian Orthodox church split from Moscow, and when you see how the Patriarchate of Moscow has been completely hijacked by the Putinists and the Russian nationalist agenda, it's easy to understand why.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    The question I have is does “stop the war in Ukraine” mean the same thing in Russia and

    China?


    Like Are they saying it from a “Russia must stop the war” or kind of a “somebody needs to stop the war” (like a “can somebody please think of the kids” statement that doesn’t blame russia).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Everything on Russian state TV is prerecorded, if they're changing the narrative it's because they've been told to. They could be building the offramp that the Yanks always go on about.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Ignoring the tweets of flavour-of-the-week Foreign Ministry crazies like Zhao Lijian, I think in the inner-sanctum of Zhongnanhai and the Standing Committee of the CCP are very thrown by this war. If Putin starts to look like a winner, they'll start throwing their weight behind him more overtly. But it's very very unclear that he'll end up anywhere on top when the cost is counted. China can't afford to have their relations with the West get any worse.

    Secretly, many at the upper echelons of the Chinese political system miss the high-water-mark days of the early 2000s to early 2010s when their political transgressions were more or less ignored and the economic going was good for them. There is political capital to be had from the West for taking the right line, but the West also needs to make sure if there is a re-set with Beijing relationships, some of the activities of the last decade or so since Xi has really tightened his grip won't be tolerated to the same extent.

    We don't get to see it that much, but palace intrigue in Beijing is very real, and this war will have implications.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,735 ✭✭✭cmac2009


    It's even worse than that, apparently. When the security services came back with their security risk assessment, Johnson took a personal interest in the case, and I assume after some coaxing by him, the security services changed their position. He somehow was no longer deemed a security risk after looking at it again!

    Also, he wanted his title as 'Lord of Lebedev Moscow', but the Tories thought that was a step too far so Siberia it was. The Times had a good article on it last weekend.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    What is Russia’s end game? Even if they overcome a city, they will not be able to maintain control of it for any long period…

    Also, Russian influencers crying about their lack of McD’s, designer boutiques and ‘gram is very maladroit. Hmmm, dying children in a hospital don’t know how hard those young people in Russia have it; no more Big Macs, or Louis Vuitton. Sickening!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,164 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Without a doubt they would. There is an immense amount of western hot air and bravado insisting Putin must not be allowed to succeed, etc, while not saying how that can be achieved via pacifism and inaction. Sanctions take too long and are impotent against rapid military action.

    I know it's doomed to failure, but my suggestion to politicians is to ditch the hollow platitudes and false bravado and only say what you mean.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    Are all those weapons and humanitarian aid nothing?

    The West is doing what it can, without blowing the whole mess into WWIII (though sadly, the Gremlin seems to have its sights further afield).

    People like to bitch at the West. We are damned when we intervene and damned when we don’t



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 545 ✭✭✭Crocodile Booze


    Only the fat, balding, little old man with the bouncing moobs on horseback knows what the end game is.

    Normal people on the street probably just want a Big Mac.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    I do feel sorry on the average Russian person, who had their national wealth plundered by the Gremlin.

    The ordinary people certainly didn’t start this. And it is the ordinary person who will be led to their demise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,798 ✭✭✭✭DrumSteve


    I'd reckon the endgame he had in his head at the start of this mess is slightly different to the one he has now





  • It's become very obvious - to me anyway that Abrahmovich was given a heads up and a few days to get his affairs in order.

    Hence the percieved good grace change of ownership and sale of Chelsea of which benefits will go to victims of the war.

    This was a deflection as he moved his other assets and Chelsea is a drop in the ocean in comparison with his overall wealth.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The British are pretty much sidelined now. They've proven they're a haven for filthy money, they've lost any leverage with the EU because of shooting themselves in the head with Brexit(much of which was to do with keeping the filthy money happy) and their "Oh look we're sending weapons" while handing out a pathetic 50 visas for Ukrainian refugees(to add to their existing xenophobia headed by an immigrant herself) and giving time for their Russian mafia to get their filthy money out of harms way, while their poor become poorer and their middle more squeezed.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,112 ✭✭✭✭briany


    @All_in_Flynn

    The West cannot get into a direct conflict with Russia for very obvious reasons.

    Yes, although I was surprised to see Biden be so blunt about it in his latest press conference, saying a direct confrontation with Russia was WW3. I suppose the euphemism of 'further escalation' wasn't really working.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,004 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Why won't US generals use their hotline to their Russian counterparts to persuade them to let Mariupol residents go west? A similar arrangement between the British and German regular armies regarding Belsen concentration camp was successful, wasn't it?! Surely, the Russian Army has its own equivalents of Rommel and Manstein, doesn't it?!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    And yet the Ukrainians keep telling the world they're greatful to the Brits...weird. Must have been all that modern military kit and training the Brits provided, while Merkel and Macron spent their time posturing. One thing I know is if I was Ukrainian I'd want the Brits on my side in a fight over a EU that is hamstrung yet again by the bad idea factory that is modern Germany



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,028 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Thread here from someone inside Russia describing what is currently happening




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 654 ✭✭✭glen123


    Very little Russian is spoken in the cities in the West of the country.Lviv actually would have more russian speaking than Ivano Frankivsk or Ternopil historically.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    This is good too, former BBC worked for Rain the Russian TV station that shut itself down rather than broadcast Kremlin propaganda, viiew of how official Russia is seeing all this

    https://faridaily.substack.com/p/theyre-carefully-enunciating-the?s=r



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,028 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,164 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    They are a help, but not if there is no one left alive to wield them. I think the Ukrainians need just a little help in the south to free up forces that can then go and attack the Russian encirclement of Kiev from behind and rout them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,028 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




This discussion has been closed.
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