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Charts for Potential Fall out from damage to Nuclear sites in Ukraine

  • 04-03-2022 4:39am
    Posts: 0 Liam Nutty Bug

    As per title, can the weather boardsies help?

    Currently there is a fire at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine and fighting including 'heavy weapons' fire.

    News is reporting the fire to be in a training room but the potential for a Chernobyl type event here or at another nuclear plant in Ukraine is real.

    It would be good to be on top of the wind/weather systems in relation to radioactive fall out


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,878 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    I heard something about this not necessarily being like Chernobyl because of a difference in technology, but that aside, the next five to ten days look as though low to mid level wind patterns will start out northwesterly (from the northwest), and will shift gradually more to northerly and northeasterly.

    Also of note is the fact that colder weather is setting in, and it is due to become very cold by middle of next week, could be around -15 C overnight and -7 C in daytime in much of the conflict zone (if it still is a conflict zone then). High pressure is building up over Russia and Siberian air is moving in the direction of Ukraine as a result.

    This cold and largely dry pattern with some snow at times in the next few days will persist for almost two weeks then a cold rain or wet snow sort of regime seems likely to replace it in second half of March.

  • Posts: 0 Liam Nutty Bug

    Suppose it would be useful to know about soil temperatures and how mushy the ground will be or is freezing will harden it up and how long it would take to harden up etc........

    in relation to tank movements

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,030 ✭✭✭✭Supercell

    I would imagine if they were going to blow the power plant in some kind of false flag then the middle of next week with easterlies would be the most likely time to do it with lesser effect to Russia. How depressing to be even contemplating all this.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network -

  • Registered Users Posts: 172 ✭✭odyboody

    Not the big issue it was being made out to be, God knows they have enough big issues already.

    It was a training facility in the grounds of the power station, not any of the reactor building, that was on fire.

    Insanity that they would even think of firing on the complex though

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  • Posts: 0 Liam Nutty Bug

    Possibility it might change hands several times like some other places

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,878 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    The situation in general got me looking at ideas about full-scale nuclear exchanges and where the worst radiation clouds would be, in my part of the world, it is not what I first imagined (concentrated over large population areas) but a strong concentration would likely occur over the northern plains states into south central Canada because that's where many of the ICBM launchers are located (North Dakota has the most). So in my own case, we are rather on the edge of that and it would depend on how weather patterns distributed the fallout later (once the temporary disruptions to the atmosphere subsided). And of course it would be a one-way street to nuclear winter at that point. Morbid thoughts, I wonder if I would be better off to drive as far away as I could (towards Yukon would make sense) or go into the target zone and get it over with quickly. At my age I suppose neither is a good choice.

    I don't think a full-scale nuclear exchange would end human life on earth, by the way. Pockets would survive in the northern hemisphere, and there's no reason to think many nukes would be exploding south of the equator or even near the equator, so as the circulation would tend to take a lot of the fallout into the arctic eventually, the southern hemisphere might survive almost intact, and so might some equatorial regions. I think it would be almost a complete annihilation of the northern temperate zones and further north, over a period of time, as the survivors starved to death in the non-technology aftermath. Only a few people would be well equipped to survive and many of them would be older single males with no chance to procreate, thus ending the strain by attrition. Some might say good riddance to all of us, I suppose.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,955 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser

    But in this nuclear winter, might we have an increased chance of snow?! Swings and roundabouts if so.....

  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH

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  • Posts: 0 Liam Nutty Bug

    vegetation takes up radioactive caesium into leaves. This would be released into the air for dispersion by fire.........

  • Registered Users Posts: 464 ✭✭Mr Bumble

    The convoy build-up has been analysed by those who understand these things and the consensus now seems to be that the column stalled 25k from Kyiv is the main resupply convoy for about seven Russian battalions (about 70k men) which were to be the encircling force for Kyiv and need to be resupplied daily which is not happening.

    Mud glorious mud or Rasputitsa"Mud Season" in Ukraine.

    The convoy is mainly made up of supply trucks/tankers with about 100 tanks for protection which are mostly being ignored by Ukrainian forces because they can't go anywhere. There is even some speculation that the Ukranians can now win the fight because of this stalled convoy. No fuel, bombs and bullets to fight with make it impossible to take Kyiv, even if there were not 500k angry civilians with plenty of guns and very sophisticated NATO weapons waiting for them.

    Putin hit the staging base base near Polish border last night for all NATO equipment coming in to resupply the Ukranians so he's inching closer and closer to doing something really stupid. More desperate each day Ukraine holds out. The Ukranians have been taking back towns behind the main Russian convoy.

    The main reason for Russia's success in the South appears to be a mix of better terrain and carpet bombing. Dry and almost desert in Crimea so no issue with mud and poorly maintained equipment. The Russians use Chinese tires on their military vehicles and these have been shown to be badly degraded; ie poorly maintained. This has been seen many times by OSint people, who are fantastic.

    Unfortunately, all of this probably makes it more likely that Putin will try to use a nuke. He seems to be under some pressure in Moscow now.

    There is an interesting series of tweets from someone who claims to be receiving briefings from a senior FSB leaker. He believes that Putin would be stopped if he tried to use a nuke, that it's not a "one red button" thing, but the responsibility of a committee of sorts. He is claiming that Putin has been very badly briefed by all around him, that a corporate culture which was aimed at pleasing the boss, gave overly sunny assessments of how an invasion would progress, how strong his own army was. He offers this as an explanation for the absence of any major air attacks by Russia ie the planes are not in good nick.

    On a positive note, the leaker has also suggested that Russia's nuke stockpile might be in a similariily poor state of repair since the enriched plutonium in the warheads must be replaced every ten years. They're struggling to change tires.

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,327 ✭✭✭An Ri rua

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,218 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir

    As the crow flies, The Kremlin is 700 km northeast of the Chornobyl plant and the Belarus border is just 22 km. An initial southerly and then northeasterly flow would be the best as it would dose both countries with maximum effect. Plenty of rain along the way to make sure nobody in those countries gets missed. A nice high over the Caucuses and a low over the Baltic should do the trick. War over.