Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

But there was excess liquidity and a shortage of t-bills for what reason? From what I have read it is due to the Fed's excessive QE in the form of asset purchasing; perhaps following the massive "bailout" in 2019.

residents objecting is just one factor, people should be allowed have a voice, they are more often ignored than they are listened to anyway.

The shortage in tbills was because they were running down the US were running down the balance on their account.

you talk about bailout when it was a simple repo transaction that exchanged one liquid asset for another.

For a start, there are loads.

Well I won't disagree with you there. However, most likely the occupants of these human livestock pens would either not be the working public, or would be paying a fortune in rent, in which case they are likely not the average worker.

As your name-sake would say: "Goooooood"

Well its all guess work what way prices will go but you can inform yourself using different mechanisms that will sway the way property prices will go.

For going up or down you have:

Interest rates rising.

Wages not rising as quickly as inflation or the price of housing.

the new retrofit scheme taking workers away from building new housing.

Rent prices are above what you pay for a mortgage.

A soon to be refugee crisis from Ukraine some reports have nearly 3/4s of a million people leaking over to Poland and other countries, these people will need housing. Also this will push up the price of oil and gas and other materials needed for housing

The changing of our time frame from 8 years to 4 months to process undocumented migrants in Ireland.

Lack of building workers

Costs of building sky rocketing.

The government both the ones in power and the new suitors for the throne Sinn Fein all have not got one documented theory as to how they solve the housing crisis. Politicians no 1 goal is power and making sure they are set for life with their pensions.

I am sure there are others but looking at the macro economics of how Ireland fits in to this world. There are more pressures from the above that will push prices up. Just my opinion.

Just for yourself it took nearly 5 years for the 08 crash to bring houses down to its lower point in 2013. Have you calculated what you would pay for in rent over the 5 years as apposed to a mortgage.?? You might be surprised by the numbers

Seen some Greek guy coming out trying to sponge more by suggesting a “European energy fund” to buy exploding commodities with even more debt. Lol what does he thi k will happen then? Inflation 20%?

at current levels I’d almost be more comfortable with Russian ruble cash than Euros.

How do you deem certain houses to be over priced? What are you measuring against the only true price of something is the price that someone is willing to pay? If this property doesn't achieve the price in the the short term the people selling it will have the options of waiting, reducing the price or just taking it off the market.

Also your take on affordability is not really valid there are areas all over the globe that are not affordable for the average person, New York , Paris. London to name a few but in this day and age of local property markets being globalized it means there are more players and more importantly more rich players in the game than ever before. Ireland has a USP for property in that if the property matches a certain criteria it can be given to the government for up to 25 years with no maintenance for the owner and a Government backed ROI, now to me in the current stratosphere of money being printed hand over fist and the cash that was in your bank account is now worth less now than this time last year. Throw in the horrors unfolding in the Ukraine and a solid safe investment is where a lot of investors will be running too. My advise is to put an offer in for the house at a price your happy with and tell the EA to get back to you if it doesn't sell that way your base is covered for a property (you think is over priced) and you will get it at a price point your willing to pay.

I wish you good luck with your future but I would not be just counting on the bog standard Irish citizen being the only players in the Irish property market as you have foreign investors, REITS, vultures and the county councils also buying up property and these entities have very deep pockets.

Like 500k average property is a long way off (i know you were just picking an arbitrary number but its over 200k higher than the average house price currently as its 290k. ,maybe do the math again on 290 instead of 500?) . People will have to get their head around the fact that areas in Ireland like Dublin, Cork and Galway are very desirable places to live. You may have to buy something a little further out and then as your wages and savings go up and your mortgage goes down you may be able to afford something closer to where you want. Its been like this for the last 30 odd years.

If the conflict in Ukraine sucks in other states, then we’re in trouble. Wars always cause spending to balloon, and if that happens, the printing presses will be turned up. I doubt that the ECB would raise rates, but then again, I don’t know.

Personally, I’m rather at a loss as to what to do.  I’ve tried to buy a house, but anything that would be suitable to me has gone far, far over the asking price, and moving to somewhere cheaper isn’t really viable as I have to care for my mother and elderly grandmother.  I currently have about 150k in cash, and I’m very concerned about inflation.  Bullion is the tempting option, and I kind of like the idea of having a “stash”, but the problem with it is that it can be difficult to liquidate, and if there’s some sort of implosion, it would be years before the value rose back up again.

It's a fine mess we’ve been landed with eh.

Have you a link to the intake of Ukrainians? 20k , how many houses were we building this year I think I seen a figure of 20k as well. I know its not a 1 to 1 correlation I think someone put a figure of 2.5 being the average household size in Ireland. So thats 8k houses gone out of the 20k new builds. I know they wont be getting new houses but it will be 8k off the over all house supply and on myhome there is only a between 10 and 11k properties available for sale. As I pointed out a week or so ago with regards to the Ukraine the properties of unforeseen circumstances for housing in this county will square hit supply again

We have 4 star hotels for those seeking asylum.

I don't think these Ukranians can afford our rents and we don't even have rentals for them; they will have to stay in repurposed hotels. Even if the State increased direct and indirect (i.e. via housing bodies) social housing acquisitions (because the State doesn't build) to help house the war-fleeing Ukranians, it will come at a cost to well-paid workers emigrating to Ireland (which IMO has already happened from the rental-demand-inflating policies to date) who desperately need to see supply increasing and rents decreasing in order to decide to move over which will feed into corporates stalling or slowing growth plans in our country which will in turn feed into corporate tax not increasing to match the ever increasing public expenditure. We are caught in this self-perpetuating housing cost increase cycle where the State is being forced to spend more on housing due to rising costs which in turn causes further increases in housing costs and thereby requiring more State spending on housing costs. It seems like FF and FG are hoping to keep the charade going until SF get into power so then SF will get blamed for the inevitable catastrophe.

Separately, on interest rate rises and inflation, a bizarre article in the IT today that the Ukranian Russian crisis would actually somehow delay interest rate increases. So even though inflation will go higher from the crisis, thereby requiring interest rates to increase even more urgently, this crisis-inflation would not need interest rates to increase. I'm not an expert but my view is that the central banks will have to make higher and sooner interest rate increases and as a result of the crisis, but I'm not a hedge fund boss (though perhaps that means I don't have a vested interest in low for long interest rates?).

We have a relatively poor country holding back the largest and most experienced army in the world with a significantly under equipped small army and citizens with home made petrol bombs.

Given that we seem to be unable to build enough houses for our small population, these brave people will be a welcome edition to the gene pool.

Refugees! They are the bravest, strongest, courageous people to stand on this planet. Their leader is an example to every world leader