Off Topic Thread 5.0

Kiev seems to be surrounded now, so it could be decision time for Zelensky. There are many many lives at stake, Russia might give him the option at these talks tomorrow of relocating to Lviv or to face terrible war. Not unlike Michael Collins and Lloyd George I suppose.

strange, wonder why?

^^^ jaypers its like the masons😑

Yeah, seems to be a bad case of overreach. I expected he would annex Donbas and the Russian speaking areas to create a buffer zone but he's gone all in and if he can't achieve his military aims very quickly all of his political leverage evaporates and the whole thing becomes a major liability for him and Russia. It looks to be going badly for Russia but it's worth remembering that when the US invaded Iraq the whole thing ground down for two days while they waited for fuel supplies from the rear. They will capture Kiev, etc and probably lots of people will die. The military part of it should not be very complicated in the short term but an occupation of Ukraine is likely to be a very expensive and unpopular clusterf*ck for Russia longer term.

But lost in all this by many people (in Europe and the USA) is that Ukraine joining NATO or the EU is an existential threat to Russia and has been since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which is why there was an understanding that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe in the 90s, which it did. Russia now has American troops on its border in the Baltics, for example. This was always going to blow up in one way or another so the idea that Putin is a madman or somehow exceptional in how he sees this situation is deeply misinformed. Any Russian leader would have the same view of Ukraine and see the same threat in its cozying up to Europe/US/NATO. None of this stuff fell off a Christmas tree, and the powers that be have been fully aware of these dynamics for decades.

There is no threat to Russia. NATO was never going to invade Russia. However a functioning democracy in Ukraine would be a threat to Putin himself. He’s just guaranteed that NATO will be reinforced and potentially expanded.

I’m not defending it, I’m trying to understand it. What’s the world in which this makes sense for Putin and the elites who support him in Russia? Morally it is obviously disgusting, and at the same time it’s true that what’s happening in Ukraine has a context that goes back further than tanks rolling last week. I’m opposed to Russia invading Ukraine the same way I’m opposed to the Iraq invasion and what the Saudis are doing in Yemen, the Palestine horror, etc. It’s obscene, but I’m not that interested in trying to understand it as some other category of operations. It’s powerful states acting on weaker ones through violence for particular reasons and for particular objectives. What are the objectives and reasons? There’s more to it than, ‘Putin’s a mad bastard and I’m tweeting 🇺🇦 ’.

@swiwi_ As for NATO not planning to invade Russia so why worry about it.. that’s not how Russia has ever seen it, as they’ve been explicit about since ‘89. No more than America could tolerate missiles in Cuba in the 60s, or Russian troops on the Mexican border. No one is invading anyone until they do.

Maybe the wrong forum tho’. I’m not planning to make any more work for mods.

Big Sky is a decent show! I have added the books, so I don't know if they follow the plot lines.