Off Topic Thread 5.0

History repeats. Do we ever learn?

My guess is he's banking on a quick military campaign to smash things up in Ukraine, keep the new "independent" states in the east but pull everyone else back, and then negotiate from a position of strength. Likely the west will be so relieved to see the tanks heading back to Russia the sanctions will be lifted quick enough (especially since the biggest sanction hits us just as hard, i.e. turning off the flow of gas from Russia).

I’d like to think we’re beyond the days of large scale global conflicts, no matter how much of a bully the other guy is. We’ve ways of making Russia pay that doesn’t require more lives being lost. If we’re smart enough and harsh enough with the economic sanctions then the cost of going to war can become far too high (because let’s face it, people like Putin don’t really care about peoples lives when making calls like this). Trying to figure out how we maximise the number of Russians who believe or realise that Putin and his outdated views of the world is the issue here is the real puzzle. If there’s enough dissent there then maybe this stuff can be stopped at source.

If they invaded Ireland of course I’d want others to support us militarily. And if someone attacked my daughter I’d want the living sh*t kicked out of them. That doesn’t mean the Gards should show up to their door with their batons drawn. My wants in an extreme case aren’t always a good reflection on what’s right or wrong. And when I’m so emotionally invested then my ability to make a balanced call on what third parties should do is severely compromised.

There are a lot of parallels being drawn between Nazi Germany and modern day Russia but there are a lot of very important differences too. Not least the level of destruction the push of a button can do today vs 80 years ago. The global economy is almost entirely unrecognisable vs 80 years ago too and so sanctions are a completely different option now to what they were, and far more effective.

At the end of the day, most of the rest of the world has moved on (at least to a point) from that incredibly destructive nationalism from 100 years ago. We need Russia to move on now too. The best way to do that is to show the Russian people that being the aggressor will hurt them without turning it into a fight. That’s part of why Biden was saying things like “we are not your enemy”. The more Russians that hear and believe that we don’t want to fight but are prepared to punish them if they do then the more they’ll question Putin. That may not help too much in the short term, but there’s a long term game to be played here too.

The Russian people are the key to this. While the Russian MSM is clearly biased and possibly controlled by the Kremlin, they can't stop younger people reading social media. The truth will begin to seep through to the Russian population.

Also, if, and admittedly it's a big if in the fog of war, but if the Ukrainians are to be believed then there will already be literally thousands of grieving mothers and wives back in Russia. I don't see how Putin can hide that from the Russian population.

The problem is that we still don't really know what Putin is trying to achieve, he can't occupy Ukraine, so does he want to create a buffer state between Russia and NATO, if Ukraine ends up like Cold War Germany with and East Ukraine and a West Ukraine will Putin be happy to see "West Ukraine" join the EU.

It's all very unpredictable.

Also to those saying the West should join the fight. I'm sorry but no. The ramifications are barely speakabke. Zelensky knew he was on his own from the outset. That's why he wanted to join NATO.

I think the issue being that a lot of the young people still buy into the anti west propaganda. Putin plays off that feeling. Even now, they’re not blaming the Ukrainians for this. They are blaming America and NATO. Fear plays strongly on any populations mind and Putin exploits that.

I think you’re right though, if there are a lot of Russian casualties. Public opinion will turn. I’m just not sure how much that will affect Putin, or if he truly cares.

I also agree that going to war with Russia is not a good idea. Western Troops would just solidify the conflict. The only real hope is sanctions that hit the people Putin really worries about, the Oligarchs.

I think you’re reading my posts wrong. I could have as easily put Switzerland nz France Germany etc. Not trying to offend or insinuate anything.