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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Solar is commercially pointless at this latitude, and that goes several times over due to Ireland's very high degree of cloud cover. There is no economic case for solar in Ireland. No commercial entity will builld capacity without long term contracts subsidised heavily by the taxpayer - which means greater energy costs fo the populace. The Germans have had the most expensive energy bills in Europe because of huge levies placed on bills to pay for wind and solar subsidies that were necessary to get them built out.

    Energy is needed 24/7/365. Solar can only approach name plate capacity for 15% of the hours in a year. For that remaining 35%, solar only manages to produce at 18% of it's rated capacity. And goes on and off like a hazard light if clouds with gaps are blowing overhead. it must be an absolute nightmare for grid managers.

    A cheap but 85% unreliable car is not a bargain, it's a burden.

    If there were really cheap and reliable storage, it might make sense, if you could prove slave labour wasn't involved.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    So if you had 4 times as much solar and you were allowed to import part of what you exported then you'd be running off 100% solar.

    It's not a technical issue, it's a tarrif issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The grid is not a battery and there is no meaningful storage.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The simplest model that completely removes the case for nuclear is three times existing wind + existing gas as backup, restricted to a max of 20% of current emissions. Can be done for 2030 for less then the cost of one nuclear power station and gets us to 2050 without needing storage or interconnectors.

    In the real world that model is backed up by our other existing generators, storage and interconnectors and by 2030 there'll be more synchronous condensers, batteries, solar, storage and interconnectors reducing the demand for gas and allowing more wind to be exported.


    Solar is a no-brainer. We could install 3GW on farm buildings. And most farms already have a grid connection. So zero land used, near zero new infrastructure needed, very low costs compared to other generators. Obviously it won't run the grid 24/7 365 but every MWh of gas saved adds up.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight



    To a first approximation demand is from 2.5GW to 5GW so solar can be accepted up to those limits. On top of that Turlough Hill has daily storage of 1.6GWh. Our existing grid can soak up a lot of solar each day.


    If there is no meaningful storage then nuclear has no possible role other than providing the ~2.5GW baseload that isn't being provided by existing renewables. It also leaves the problem of how to provide peak demand even if nuclear could magically arrive before 2030.


    Nuclear is a high cost partial solution to a problem that renewables can solve better, sooner and cheaper.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    So you are saying that if we install 20GW, (ie 5 times peak summer demand and that 18% becomes 90%) we'd be meeting most of the grid demand 35% of the time out of a maximum possible 50% hours ( because solar doesn't work at night)

    And 15% of the year we'd be able to store or export the remaining 16GW ? And all for less than half the cost of the cheapest real world cost of one nuclear power plant ? (Solar modules have gone down to $0.20/watt and should fall further by 2030)

    Sounds too good to be true, but existing buildings and depleted bogs and floating panels etc. means we could do it easily.

    Solar, like wind is geographically dispersed around the grid so it's unlikely that all the panels would suddenly be covered by clouds at the same time. Though Germany did keep the grid going through a 15GW drop during a solar eclipse and we've been monitoring cloud cover by satellite since 1960 so it's probably not an issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    On a day like today there is a surplus of wind supply which as was pointed out before makes solar the complement of wind.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Its almost never untrue for the whole of the country which is the scale we are looking at.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    How much would it cost us to provide enough nuclear to meet the increased demand for decarbonised transport and heating by 2030 ?

    Today we have wind.

    In the future when we don't have wind or solar we could dip into gas up to a max of 20% of today's emissions. And soon we will have 2.2GW of interconnectors as well as the other generators and storage on the grid so may not have to dip that deep.



    We were meeting 89% of equivalent system demand from wind overnight.

    When we have three times today's installed capacity we'll be able to export or store oodles of it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    One problem that is very apparent for Ireland is the suboptimal nature of most of the installed wind capacity. Eirgrid's strangle hold on connections and its auction system for those slots means that much of Ireland installed wind capacity is sited in suboptimal locations scattered wherever Eirgrid has a suitable hook up point. This means that much of Irelands installed capacity is producing at far below its full potential wasting time, money and resources for everyone. The same is likely to be the case for much of the installed solar capacity. Cloud cover can be brutal in some area but on the east coast out to the midlands its much lower.

    Until the Eirgrid monopoly is broken this will continue to be the case for future installed capacity of both wind and solar.


    For a Comparison its informative to compare this to N.Ireland where all the wind capacity is sited in the most strategically advantageous locations.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Its a laughably poor discussion simply because those who advocate Nuclear for Ireland are simply shouting into the wind, short of a significant leap forward in the technology there will never be a single watt of Irish Nuclear placed onto the grid. Thinking anything otherwise is simply delusional. There is no serious advocacy for it politically or industrially and that is because those who matter (those with money to invest) have done the maths and shown that Nuclear is neither economically viable for a country the size of Ireland or a solution to the climate crisis which exists at this moment, ie net zero by 2050 whilst progressively meeting stricter and stricter emission limits.

    Nuclear advocates have lost the argument and nothing is going to change that in an Irish context.


    I would ask the nuclear advocates how Ireland installing nuclear would solve its 30 year climate obligations.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Look, there is no use my engaging with you because you are basically dishonest. A few posts back you gave the cost of the UAEs nuclear plant as €40 B, when it's half that. The other $20b is over the next 60 years of operational life and has not been spent. You talk of fossil fuels needed as backup to nuclear, which is needed once in a blue moon, but will blithely tout gas as an obvious backup for intermittents - required frequently - but you don't call it fossil fuel then, oh no. You also ignore all comparative costings from Lazard that I have provided, who are so authoritative I have seen them quoted in academic papers.

    So pose all the questions you want, I'm not intereested in dealing with your cute approach to discourse.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Barakah was $18.6 when the original deal was signed in 2009 for startup in 2017. Then the normal nuclear cost overruns and delays happened.

    By 2016 it was US$ 24.4 billion, composed of direct loan agreements of about US$ 19.6 billion as well as a total of US$ 4.7 billion in equity commitments. $32 billion in 2021 and there's years of construction to go.

    Cheap labour too "employing more than 17,000 laborers from the Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and other developing countries." So it would cost a LOT more to build here.

    Also Re: "The other $20bn" to run the plant it was $49.4 Billion AND on top of that Kepco is negotiating another deal to dispatch Korean workers to the new plants for 10 years.


    Besides it's probably a smoke screen as it looks like they are using nuclear to carbon balance coal or sell more fossil fuel. (With nuclear the more you look the worse it gets.)

    It’s worth noting that the UAE became the first country in the region to generate electricity from coal – the dirtiest form of electricity creation – in stark contrast to its clean energy pivot.

    Dubai’s $3.4 billion Hassyan coal-fired power plant has begun operations, with a capacity reaching 2,400 MW by 2023 and expected to provide 20 percent of the emirate’s power needs.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I would ask the nuclear advocates how installing nuclear would solve 80% of climate obligations in the next 8 years. (average emission reductions of 10% a year)

    After 2030 there's only a 20% gap left for the dispatchables that will need to provide most of peak demand at times. (average 1% a year)



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You are doing it again. The price is not $32.2b in 2021. There is no sourcing of that figure that I can find. Given that price keeps referring to project, it's likely the long term price, not the current expenditure, which I fail to see how could be substantially more than the agreed loans. The generally accepted cost is $24.4 Billion.

    So Barakh is 5.6 GW for $24.4b so $4.357b per GW, while Berwick Bank Wind Farm off Scotland, will be 4.1 GW for $19b, so $4.634b per GW.

    And that's just construction costs, we haven't got to the best wind falls apart bit. Berwick Bank will probably have a capacity factor of 53%. (based on East Anglia One 52.3%) Whereas given Barakh is a Korean design, it's reasonable to think it might have a similar capacity factor as nuclear energy in Korea, which is 96.5%.

    Now the usual problem with renewables applies; what's the real cost of the energy - not the cheap while it's blowing pricing the public is always being bamboozled with. I'll go with it costing 96.5-53 = 43.5% more expensive, which given it's already 6.35% more expensive than Barakh, makes it about 50% more expensive in total - which is quite something.

    24/7/352 Nuclear power from Barakh will be significantly cheaper than that from the latest Scottish offshore wind, which we know won't be any cheaper here.


    As for slave labour, that's what makes a good fraction of the cheap solar panels China produces, yet you are a big fan of solar.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Nuclear. if we started next year, would see us virtually zero CO2 free by 2032 - 18 years, or nearly two decades sooner, than the 2050 target.

    If you believe in AGW, that ought to be a good thing, as China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, et al, won't be reducing their CO2 emissions within 100 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    There you go again, a nuclear advocate who denies the reality of AGW and thus the need for immediate reductions. What you are advocating is no significant reductions in emissions for 18years (a very optimistic date for an Irish install anyway) which is not what we are signed up for.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Because Nuclear is zero CO2? - something we don't have a realistic plan for. We have 2050 hopium based on no known storage tech, which is little more than wishful thinking.

    As for Ireland being incapable of nuclear because the Irish are what they are; well you are probably right - not that I'd be too proud of that win.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Pumped storage is a proven technology in Ireland and has been part of the energy mix for decades. Its really not a fantasy technology at all. There are cost effective plans to use west coast valleys to do the job of storage and every bit of the technology is proven and well understood. It would also allow us to become a significant spinning reserve for the EU DC supergrid making significant profits by load balancing the EU grid. None of this is unfeasble or unrealistic.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Pumped storage is about as envonmentally destructive as it gets. I'm pro environment so completely against such China Gorges dam like envirovandalism and social upheaval.

    Turlough hill provides 292 MW, briefly. How many of those would be needed here, to fill the gap?:

    Any more jokes, that one was ok?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    The Chinese Gorges dam is not pumped storage so your point is off the mark.

    Also Ireland will have to add much of its future capacity offshore, a situation which is much more stable in terms of output.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Another advantage of renewables is that it has massive resilience against outages since multiple individual farms or turbines can go down without significantly impacting the overall capacity. The same can not be said of the 2 reactors which Ireland could realistically build. If one goes down you lose 50% of your capacity and there is a very good chance that some outages will take down both at the same time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,650 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Not last year they didn't and doubling the number won't improve their performance during extended low wind conditions - Germany again is prime example as it has already carpeted land and sea with them and continue to rely heavily on conventional power



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,650 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Care to back up that statement on solar and wind being complimentary??



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Berwick Bank Wind Farm off Scotland, will be 4.1 GW for $19b - citation please as SSE are only spending £12Bn across all their projects over the next 5 years.

    Again that UAE plant is at a loss leader price with cheap labour. It would cost billions more here based only on 17,000 construction workers for a decade. Or why aren't the Koreans getting more orders if they can do nuclear at a fraction of the price, it doesn't add up. unlike the extra contracts.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    OK then if we added twice what we have already have, what % of our annual demand could it generate if we exported the surplus and then reimported it later on ?

    Until 2050 we can use gas and other sources to load balance demand and wind production.

    We need to remove most of the emissions in the next 8 years. Nuclear missed that boat. Game Over.

    We need net-zero dispatchables to provide the final 20% reduction , they will need to match peak demand. Nuclear can't be used as peaking plant so can't load balance with wind.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,839 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "The project is expected to supply enough clean energy to power 5,000,000 households, to offset 8,000,000t of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) a year. The project cost is expected to be around $19,099.03m. The project will be spread over an area of 1,680km²."

    https://www.power-technology.com/marketdata/berwick-bank-wind-farm-uk/



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    SSE have pledged £12.5Bn ( $17Bn ) across all of their green projects from now until 2026 so I can't see them spending $19Bn on just one of them that they have a 100% stake in and will be delivered the following year.


    From SSE's site "will invest £12.5bn by 2026 – 65% uplift on previous plan ... The funding will be used to double SSE’s net installed renewable energy generation capacity to 8GW by 2026 and more than 16GW by 2030."

    But this £12.5bn spend also includes "working with Equinor to develop the 3.6GW Dogger Bank wind farm  ... Also included in the financial plans, dubbed the “net-zero acceleration programme”, is additional funding for battery energy storage, carbon capture and storage, green hydrogen production and improving electricity network infrastructure. ... On hydrogen, SSE is working with Equinor to jointly develop a 1.8GW hydrogen power station at the Humber Industrial Cluster"



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,427 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Crickets regarding SSE money for nuclear 🤣



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