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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Better picture of the gas network https://transparency.entsog.eu/#/map - today those pipelines are hammering nuclear on price. With a hydrogen economy you'll probably only carry 1/3rd of energy in a similar volume of hydrogen, but with better insulation and heat pumps etc. it should still allow gas to undercut nucler in the future.


    To see gas flows for the previous day , right click on node, choose a tab and click + (it's complicated as there's storage too and right now the UK is exporting gast to Belgiim / Zeebrugge)




  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Again you choose an exceptionally windy day to spin your windy nonsense. Some soft heads on here my buy it but the realities of a modern grid are very different, hence the current panic across the EU in terms of looking at more gas and nuclear capacity. As for installing yet more wind generation, the past year has highlighted the folly of continuing to go down the German route on this and its telling that that the current Greenwashed goverment continues to refuse to conduct any independent CBA or SEA on any aspect of this folly



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Who's looking at 'more' nuclear in Europe ? There's a lot of plants emarked for closure. New build isn't at replacement rate and it's years late and way overbudget. Russian and Chinese reactors aren't an option because you are reliant on them not playing political games for the next 70 years.

    Nuclear won't arrive by 2030 so we would have to use wind until then. Refurbising existing wind farms is way cheaper than building nuclear.


    Or if you order a nuclear power plant today then in 2030 when they announce it's been delayed yet again, you could order floating offshore floating wind turbines for half the price they'd cost today and be producing power before the nuclear plant does.



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Ok for the nuclear fanboy's, let's suspend reality for a moment and imagine that there was political will to go nuclear right now. Obviously there isn't but let's play hypotheticals.

    How long would it take from here before the first watt of electrical power was produced?

    For me a minimum of 27 years - breakdown

    • 4 years convincing the people of the benefits
    • 4 years to find a site & put in place a new planning system
    • 5 years to complete planning process
    • 4 years for final political approval & commercials to be agreed
    • 10 years construction

    So the best case scenario is the site is generating power by 2049.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You left out the judicial reviews, appeals and appeals of the appeals. Add in another 8-10 years and even then I think its still an overly optimistic timeline



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,031 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    so that is 35 to 37 years for 1 nuclear power plant at the cost of hundreds of billions.

    vs a few billion or less for renewables and if needs be gas which can all be got up and running in reasonable time.

    there is just no competition, nuclear loses hands down on all metrics.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,647 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Lets just repeat this, since it got such a good reaction last time - the majority of Nuclear Advocates are climate change skeptics.

    If you want to object state your position on climate change in your reply.


    But lets just state my position, in the time and with the money available, multiple times the generating capacity we need could be brought online before a single watt of nuclear was released to the grid. The advantage is that over that time our carbon footprint would be gradually reducing making our position better year on year. If we went Nuclear all that capitol would be tied up in the nuclear project and we wouldn't be accruing a single benefit until the first nuclear plant came online - 10-20 years down the line.


    Nuclear answers no questions that are relevant to the Irish situation.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,485 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The argument that we will be importing nuclear electricity from France once the interconnector goes on stream is based on a simple fallacy.

    Once the electricity is generated, it is electricity - it cannot be distinguished whether it came from a windmill, a nuclear reactor, or a bicycle dynamo ridden by Eddie Merckx. However, nuclear generally provides base load which is at the bottom of the pyramid - unlikely to be generated to supply us. We will only get the surplus - or it will be very expensive. We, of course, will return the favour.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Nuclear's uptime is generally good, but it's downtime is awful.

    It's winter and France has 25% of it's nuclear capacity offline. One unplanned plant outage has been extended to the end of the year.

    With fewer plants we'd be far more exposed because nuclear isn't as reliable as adverstised.

    At present, about 75.8% of installed capacity is available, with about 15.1 gigawatts (GW) now offline because of corrosion assessment, maintenance or other issues.

    The 1.5 GW Chooz 1 reactor outage date was also extended to the end of this year from the expected restart date of Feb. 11. Chooz 1 was taken offline in December after corrosion was detected in some pipes at the plant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 738 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    I think it is partly a way of derailing talk about workable solutions to climate change and partly that nuclear appeals to a particular set of bitter cranks who also happen to be climate change deniers.

    Before someone gets upset I'm not saying all or even a majority of people who support nuclear are cranks. I'm in favour of maintaining nuclear power in larger countries myself and I think it's an amazing technology.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Pity none of that corresponds to reality anywhere in the EU - I suggest you read up at what Germany alone has spent on wind/solar in the last 10 years, yet is still heavily dependent on fossil and outside grids to keep the lights on. 24 billion Euros in RESS money was paid out in 2020 alone there!! and thats before you go counting all the other hidden costs wind power adds to a grid due to its dispersed and sprawling nature



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Actually that argument simply serves to highlight how useless wind power is alot of the time cos there is no export market for it anywhere in Europe due to its non-dispatchable nature eg. Germany has to dump any excess wind generation on surrounding grids during the rare occasion it occurs and gets no payment in return, whereas they have to pay top dollar for importing power when wind/solar output is low.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    gets no payment in return

    You claimed this previously and were shown to be incorrect so I'm curious why you are maintaining this fallacy.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    If you install offshore wind equal to three times peak demand (3x33.8% =100%) then you will be able to meet peak demand 53% of the time with wind alone. Minimum demand is roughly half peak demand and would be met 74% of the time.

    The rest of the time demand could be supplied by a mix of wind and other sources. Which up to 2030 could be gas alone, which gives us to 2050 to rollout storage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,031 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    there are no hidden costs with wind, the costs are the costs.

    anyway, 24 billion to pay for excess electricity from other grids is still a fraction of the cost of nuclear.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,485 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Uptime is just a number. Is it measured for each turbine, or are you referring to the variability of wind?

    If you have 500 turbines and 50% are out of action for one reason or an other, you still have 250 functioning. If on the other hand you have one reactor, if any % of it is out of action, then it is 100% out of action. Now if it is there to look after your base load - 25% to 40%, then the grid is in trouble, unless you have a spare one or two. Also, reactors tend to go out of action for protracted periods measured in years, while wind turbines can be repaired or replaced quite easily using spares that could be kept in a warehouse (if that is the policy).



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    €0, Zero. Nothing.

    The infrastructure we'd need to deploy to keep the lights on until nuclear power arrives would meet our 2030 80% emissions reduction target. So there'd be nothing left for nuclear to do when it predictably arrived years late and way over budget.

    Nuclear will need 100% backup 100% of the time until at least 2035 if you look optimistically at real world construction times. The cheapest way to get that backup is to add twice the amount of wind power we already have and use gas to top it up. That alone gets us to an 80% reduction in emissions by 2030.


    You need 3GW of wind backed by up to 20% gas to replace each 1GW of nuclear to meet our 2030 obligations. (That's without storage or hydrogen or interconnectors or solar or other renewables any or all of which could be deployed by 2050 to meet zero emissions.)

    OR

    If you decide to roll out nuclear you'd need 3GW of wind backed by gas and or storage for up to 20% of the time to keep the lights on until the nuclear plant supplies full power to the grid.

    Note: It takes about six months for a new nuclear power plant to bed in / ramp up to full production after the initial grid connection. It's one of many things not mentioned in the brochure.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    A rough rule of thumb is that Nuclear is about ten billion eurodollars per GW* not counting costs of fossil fuel used during the delays.

    75.8% after a buggy Bugey power station went off line because overheating. (Tricastin was down earlier because of an oil leak of all things)

    Onshore wind 25-30%? So add twice that amount of onshore and you have 75-90% average capacity. Add offshore and you are hitting 100% average. And that's without storage or offsetting exports of the massive surplus.


    (*) Under construction, costs are still rising

    Vogtle 2,2GW $29.5Bn , Hinkley C 3.2GW €27Bn , Barakah 5.6GW $40Bn (authoritarian desert regime with low cost labour)



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,031 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    you are twisting what he said.

    he didn't say nuclear was unreliable because 25% of it is down in france, he said it is unreliable because large percentages of it can go down at any time and for anything from months to years at a time, and that percentage could increase at any second for any reason.

    the fact 75% of it is just about working currently in france can change rather quick, that is not something you get with other, cheaper more efficient options.

    the claim that nucler is the most expensive option has been shown time and time again and plenty of figures to back it up have been provided.

    wind requires subsidy because harvesting it at scale is a new technology and it needed to be tried and tested, we already knew small scale harvesting of it which had been a norm a couple of centuries ago worked but at scale was an unknown at first and now it has proven itself cheap and efficient.

    it may not require subsidy as time goes on but then again i would be surprised if other sources like gas don't require some either currently.

    but either way, subsidies for most power sources are a fraction of that which nuclear requires and that is, along with the other issues mentioned, why it can't compete especially for a small country like ireland.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Please explain how, while waiting for nuclear, we'd meet our 2030 target of 80% reduction in emissions without using renewables ?

    Here's a clue. Norway are spending $2.6Bn to capture 1.5m tonnes of CO2 a year for 10 years. That would cost us $14Bn a year for our annual emissions of 8.3mt CO2 (2020 down from 15m tonnes in 2005) so forget CCS.


    Nuclear can't arrive by 2030. Even if was the cheap it's an additional cost on top of what we need to do anyway to meet our 2030-2050 needs. So the onus is on you to prove that if nuclear arrives after 2030 it's capital costs are cheaper than the ongoing operation and maintenance costs of pre-existing wind.


    Or prove that nuclear can be guaranteed to be fully operational before 2030 at a capital cost less than three times that of offshore wind per GW in 2030, and even then there are issues regarding load balancing, reliability and providing backup and spinning reserve. Real world examples only. And not forcing reliance on Russia or China for the lifetime of the plant.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Really?? Can you post that in terms of what Germany gets compared to other conventional based grids for energy exports



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    What a nonsense statement - wind is a highly dispersed and non-dispatchable energy source that requires a vast amount of extra grid infrastructure in terms of pylons etc. which in turn leads to significant extra ongoing maintenance costs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,677 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Targets my ar$e - as I mentioned earlier this state is decades behind on targets for water quality, habitat protection etc. In any case building more useless wind farms isn't going to achieve much in the way of any targets since the government is now having to scramble to find extra conventional power capacity to keep the lights on thanx to their own clueless developer led greenwash energy policies.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Nuclear missed the boat. It can't arrive in time to provide an 80% reduction in emissions.

    And it can't compete with gas to povide the other 20% until 2050 becuse it's not dispatchable nor can it provide 100% of demand for short times. So we have to deploy wind by 2030 to provide that 80% reduction in emissions. Going nuclear won't change that.

    Which means in 2030 we have the choice of paying zero for wind that already exists, or paying for nuclear that still won't arrive for years.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    What a nonsense statement - Nuclear has to be built in remote areas, it's a non-dispatchable energy source that requires a vast amount of extra grid infrastructure in terms of pylons etc. which in turn leads to significant extra ongoing maintenance costs.

    FYP

    Also since nuclear can't arrive in time to help with the 2030 emission targets you'd need to build the wind infrastructure too.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Those useless wind farms produce ~40% of annual electricity already. Double that and we've practically met our 2030 targets.

    But we'll be installing more than that which means we can get demand from wind alone even in relatively calm weather. That still allows us to use gas to provide 100% backup for short times until 2050.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    As I said, it was already posted in a reply to you



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,647 ✭✭✭Shoog


    It's not a discussion of just wind Vs nuclear. Everyone is ignoring the fact that solar can contribute a significant amount of power even in Ireland. Wind and solar are complementary because when one has low output the other is high. Solar is well suited to domestic situations and can easily provide 80% of a houses needs unburdening the grid exactly when wind is low


    Without consideration of solar in the mix the wild claims about alternatives by nuclear advocates is disingenuous at best

    .



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,647 ✭✭✭Shoog


    I know a lot of people with solar installs, solar with battery supplies 100% of their electricity in the summer and about 50% or more in the winter. In the summer many are giving their surplus to the grid. A substantial amount of the housing stock could do the same and this maximises the efficiency of the installed solar capacity.

    Any discussion of renewables vs nuclear that ignores solar is not an accurate picture. The ambition set by the Irish state for solar is very low and doesn't seek to install solar on every house where it is viable meaning it will fail to make a useful contribution unless more money is invested in it and more ambitious target are set.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,647 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Throwing in electric cars and heat pumps doesn't change what I said, for typical current usage scenarios in a domestic situation 80% of need is a realist figure for all but the most profligate users.


    The proof of the pudding in whether nuclear is viable is are business investors pumping money into it. the answer is no and the reason is that they have done the calculations and discovered that renewables offer a better return on investment. That really is the bottom line in this discussion. Unless the government wants to stump up a 100% investment in Nuclear for strategic reasons - it will not get built. All the evidence shows that the Irish government are averse to purely state funded infrastructure even when the risks of overruns are low.



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