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Are we excited yet?

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  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    Thought there might have been a bit of a bounce with the various crypto ads during the Superbowl last night, but seems like its more of the same. Red across the board.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,385 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly



    Quite the opposite looking across the board lol



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,548 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    If a war breaks out is crypto bol**xed? Reading that everything will crash.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,385 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,166 ✭✭✭Markus Antonius


    This is also the case for Fiat currencies and by extension literally every known object real or virtual in this world.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,548 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    Yeah true but even Bitcoin? Would be a good time to load up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,814 ✭✭✭Grumpypants


    Unless you have shares in the war machine everything else suffers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,382 ✭✭✭FFVII


    Takes world war to equalize. Its the only thing that enriches the lower classes. Otherwise the top 0.1 just keep on trucking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Not quite. Barring the absolute break down of all law and order and society, a fiat currency is backed by a central bank which is backed by a state or states who have some measure of control over it's relative value. The same structures also have some measure of control over other elements of society which can interact with that unit of value.

    Regardless, it is not clear whether or not you are disputing my point which was I would not understand someone who was very confident about a crypto token having value when it is called "bitcoin" for example, but being very skeptical when it is linked to a digital image.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Actual gold will go up. Magical "digital gold" won't. However what often happens is that it spikes as people pour in, and then hits a slump later on before they get out.


    There would likely just be a rush to safe-havens.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,385 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly



    Because said link to a digital image could be deleted tomorrow, very different to crypto - the image or whatever isn't stored on the blockchain

    So two very different things (rug pulls excepted)



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Actually the link could not be deleted. The link is in the blockchain - no? Immutable yadda yadda yadda. Where it points to could be gone though. Regardless, if that happens, then what you are left with just a cryptographic hash in a digital ledger. Which is what you have with a cryptocurrency



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,215 ✭✭✭✭Suckit



    Just to point out, you have no idea if that is or isn't the case.

    You have no idea if more people would actually find more solace in having their savings stored in Bitcoin for example.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    People can do what they want. It is their money. Money always flows to safe havens in times of crisis. That's just an empirical fact. Cryptocurrency is a 100% speculative asset. If you want to have your money in an 100% speculative asset at a time of crisis, that is your choice. If you want to take money out of other assets and put it into that speculative and volatile asset at that time, again that is your choice.


    Your bitcoin may go up, or it may go down. I would have zero confidence in a prediction that a war would drive up its price. I would have a lot of confidence in a prediction that a war would have money flowing into gold (there would probably be a slump afterwards, but that is not what is being talked about here)



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,215 ✭✭✭✭Suckit


    People have been saying it (bitcoin) is 100% speculative for over a decade now, and it has just kept getting stronger.

    While I wouldn't have anywhere near the same faith in all other cryptocurrencies (bar none) - I would be perfectly happy having bitcoin. I could almost go as far to say I may even have more confidence in it than many other physical assets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    What is your argument against it being called a speculative asset? Because that is what it is. The fact that it tends to increase in price over time is not a refutation of it being a speculative asset. People can invest in speculative assets if they want, and can do very well out of it. Or they can lose their shirts on them. There is nothing wrong, per se, with having a punt on them if you want.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,814 ✭✭✭Grumpypants


    Everything is a speculative asset. People buy it hoping it will go up in value without knowing if it will or not.


    People buy property thinking it's safe and that collapsed in 2008.

    People bought Blackberry and Nokia thinking it was the biggest mobile manufacturer and safe, then one day Apple made the iPhone and killed them.


    Bitcoin could **** the bed in the morning. But the more likely scenario is it keeps tipping along as it has for a decade.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Everything is a speculative asset. People buy it hoping it will go up in value without knowing if it will or not.

    Wrong.



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    Russia pulling back some forces, hopefully leads to a de-escalation in the area.

    Might settle the markets a bit anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,991 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    No, he's right. Every class of investment asset is valued at what someone else will pay you for it. All markets are roughly ponzi schemes in a 0%/- interest world. One of the few equities markets that it could be argued is less so, is Australia's, where companies have a long history of returning considerable value to investors as dividends, unlike the US market and similar where the main avenue for returns is price appreciation - ponzi market, so the argument that the economic activity of the company underpinning the valuation is false, as the market is not in any way obliged to recognise that. When a company disperses most of it's profit as dividends, then that is a different proposition. Apple is good example, they are considered a high dividend paying company but what they begrudgingly dole out to investors is pathetic - 0.52%.

    Gold, classic cars, rare whiskeys, fine art, antiques, none of them have any value other than what the market will pay. Bitcoin is the same as all of those and of equal basic validity.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,814 ✭✭✭Grumpypants


    name an investment that people put their money into in the hopes it loses them money so??



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Sovereign bonds. You might have heard about a thing called negative interest rates? The short end of the yield curve has been negative for years for many currencies. You can also buy them on the secondary market as well as buying them at issuance. And, in certain circumstances, you will pay more for them than what they will redeem at (even for ZCs). They aren't hoping they lose money - they know they will lose money (Unless of course they sell them on on the secondary market .... but eventually money is lost)!

    Every day is a school day.

    Here's a link for you https://www.ft.com/content/1bcfde6e-753d-4096-addc-e8545c89c7a9


    For the second part you said:

    People buy it hoping it will go up in value without knowing if it will or not.

    Again, not always true. For example, you might buy an asset for your business which you know will depreciate but you can hope that it will help you to make money in other ways. Like a van.

    Or you might buy an asset to use it - e.g. to live in a house - rather than for speculative purposes



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,215 ✭✭✭✭Suckit


    I am aware it is (called) a speculative asset, but it seems to not be going anywhere. I wasn't referring to it's value increasing, but more so it's position strengthening. What it is, what it is used for, who is using it, how many are using it etc.

    I was initially pointing out that you do not know what would happen to it should a war break out. I stick by that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    That's fine. Should a war break out you are free to liquidate everything and throw it into crypto assets should you so wish.

    What are you using it for yourself btw? Given it's strengthening position in that regard.


    Just a heads up for you. The Fed is likely to raise rates over there very soon. It may even though so on an emergency basis before its next scheduled meeting. That may or may not be already factored into the current level of your bitcoin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,814 ✭✭✭Grumpypants




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,215 ✭✭✭✭Suckit


    Still pointing out that you don't know what will happen with it. But thanks, I am already well aware I can spend my money as I wish, on used teabags if that is my choice. I do use BTC actually, regularly enough too, and was using it long before I was 'saving it'.

    The Fed is likely to raise rates over where? Not sure where exactly you think I am, but I am aware of all the latest goings on that I need to be. Hungary, US, Russia, India, and Colombia as they are currently the latest places talking about it in the news etc, I like to try and stay on top of that, so all or any change will be taken into consideration by myself as much as possible, as things like that have been expected for a long time and have just been pushed forward a little quicker, but nothing really unexpected so far.

    But, that's not really where I was going with my original post. I was just pointing out that should there be a war you wouldn't have a clue what could or would happen with it.

    But with Russia announcing that they have finished their training excercises and moved away from the border, it all seems moot for now what may or may not happen if a war breaks out. I guess we just got to keep our main eye on Kazakhstan now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Read the article. You'll learn something. I'm surprised you were not aware of it already. It's kinda basic tbh



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,239 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    "The Fed is likely to raise raise rates over there"

    "there" being where the Fed is - given you appear confused.



  • Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭jolivmmx


    Can I be that person? I spent 1.5k on crypto at the end of the year. 90% BTC and EtH, 10% alt coins. I stake on Binance. My portfolio is down 500. I was reading on Reddit and people are making out that they are up 300%.

    What am I doing?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,548 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    I started investing on Christmas Day and I'm down approx 9/10% as it stands. Ive been buying bitcoin regularly since and threw a small bit of cash into 3/4 projects that I believe in.

    From now I'm just gonna stay stacking. It's a long game and I think the idea that would can 'get rich quick' is a load of bull.

    Edit: My poorest performer has been Chainlink (LINK). I bought at 23 euro and it essentially halted from that point.



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