Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

One thing that may be of interest to some posters (and apologies if this has been posted already)

These are the top liquidators in the country. I expect they are anticipcating an uptick in business in the next 3-5 years ...

If they are right it will probably have implications for property prices. Somewhat tangential but interesting in any event.

You need to wake up if interest rates go up by 2% which is projected in the next 3-5 years we will have to service the debt to the tune of about 5 Billion a year on interest alone that has to be paid and its money that will be taken away from day to day spend. What your suggesting is trying to get out of a hole by continuing to dig downwards. In what scenario does this end well?

They have found a way to close off "transportable" houses in a sense.

Try getting planning for a flat pack or modular home, borderline impossible. A lot of people I know would love to buy a small site and get one of the converted shipping container homes for ~80k. They wouldn't allow that either, even in this level of an emergency. Stuff like that has existed all over other countries for decades.

It's absolutely maddening how every solution is shot down and nimbyed.

There's no sense of urgency about helping people whose lives are being destroyed. We can't even help ourselves by being resourceful.

Perhaps he forgot the /s?

Well, apparently this policy has no cause of inflation or higher interest rates if the ECB and local regulators statements are anything to go by. The causes of inflation are nothing to do with this policy for them.

I think liquidations will start before 3-5 years as costs are rising and margins will be squeezed as consumers reign in their spending. Can see a load of liquidations in the hospitality sector as they have increased their prices during covid when people had extra disposable income from working from home etc. And now as that the economy opens up I can see them rejecting the prices.

What would be crazy is to implement austerity during a time of a recession as it only compounds the problem. When the economy's are growing they should be taking advantage of it and paying down the debt to enable them to borrow during the next recession. If there is inflation in the economy is generally down to the economy growing to fast and repaying debt destroys some of the money in circulation which in turn slows down the economy.

but new debt and when the debt matures we will be on the hook for the higher interest

[Deleted - duplicate post]

It implies they are buying new, high end, and yes also outbidding would be owner-occupiers.

The article also spells out why - because of rental yields, the cuckoo funds' valuation of the property is higher than what a family would ever pay.

Based on annual rent received/property purchase price - they set their purchase price based on market rents as they target a certain level of return. If interest rates rose, this would be much less viable for them.

If that term is referring to REITs, then no, they are not stupid, because they don't pay any tax whatsoever - not on income or CGT on disposal. The idiots are the voters who aren't marching in the streets and writing to their TD's, asking why the government treats mostly foreign REITs so generously - the beneficiaries of which are mostly wealthy foreigners - while treating local Irish landlords so abominably and comparitively unfairly with policies deliberately intended to drive them out of the market - and why are they letting FTBs be completely screwed over by large corporations?

I'll be voting Sin Fein, that's for sure.

and how much more debt will we have added in that time? What it suggests is that there will come a point in time in the next decade when 5Billion+ will be snapped up on our annual spend for interest and god knows what that rate will be if 2% is predicted in the next 3 - 5 years it could be double that meaning 10 billion out of our spend is gone on servicing the debt. If I was in government I would be looking at ways to stop borrowing and reducing the debt so when rollover time comes that 5 to 10 billion is a lot less. Other wise things welfare , ps pensions , OAP and capital expenditure will have take a hit.