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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,571 ✭✭✭Underground


    SF will get in to government at next election, make a balls of it, and then lose to FF / FG / FF & FG coalition combo and we will be right back here, only at that point Leo or Helen or whoever is leading FG will be able to say "now didn't we tell you not to vote for those silly shinners?"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,011 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    sf are actually the only ones talking sense, its clearly obvious the ffg approach is never going to work, but sf will absolutely struggle to get their ideas off the ground, and since the electorate has had enough, they may only get one go at it, and this issue will absolutely not be resolved in a single term.....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 641 ✭✭✭J_1980


    so Argentina’s approach is working then?

    because that’s what the west is trying to do now. The US will be the first to turn away from it (22, definitely 24), and the resulting $ strength will force the EU to follow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,011 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    oh ffs, no its not!

    countries such as Argentina, Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc etc, are the way they are for various different reasons, the most common being due to serious supply side issues, and the fact that the bulk of their debts are in foreign denominations such as the dollar, the majority of our debts are in euros....

    again, we are in this situation primarily due to our default position of the over reliance on the private sector money supply, the credit supply, the only way to counteract this is to increase our reliance on the public supply, i.e. public debt, and become less reliant on the credit supply, in which is hard wired for returns, public debt isnt, it just needs to be serviced, and can, and regularly is, permanently rolled over, until fully serviced. it is rare that a country fully pays its debts, doing so, would more than likely cause a serious economic crisis, as it would result in a dramatic fall in the money supply, as debt is the money supply....



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 641 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Well whatever.

    prices will rise until the western “needs based” welfare model breaks.

    so don’t expect any drops in property prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,011 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yes, prices will more than likely keep rising, largely due to our chronic supply problems, and the fact, we re still driving a primarily fire sector approach to this need, again, credit is its main tool, and credit is hardwired to maximise returns, at all costs, a similar issue is also occurring at the corporate level, hence the dramatic rise in financialised activities such as share buy backs etc etc, i.e. returns are easier and faster via these methods, rather than investing in productive means, i.e. creating new assets etc....

    what in gods name are you talking about 'needs based welfare model'?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 997 ✭✭✭iColdFusion


    SF are making some big promises that to me seem pie in the sky stuff and I expect them to double down on them when there's an election coming but I think they will be their own undoing, whatever social housing demand is at the moment it will rise sharply if they get into power, shur why wouldn't it when they are promising everyone a brand new state subsidised house or apt!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 641 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Unemployed/low level employed people getting a €250k house for pennies rent, a dole that is higher than the average salary in China.

    Chinese people have a higher iq than irish, better education (in science subjects) and MUCH better work ethic. Eastern china should be richer than Ireland. Simples as. Currency and price moves will force that adjustment over the next decade in a globalised world. If their living standards go higher someone else’s has to drop, hence the so called “supply bottlenecks”, in reality this is just countries getting richer buying up e.g. all the LNG at any price as they can afford this now. This won’t go away.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,011 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, oppositions tend to make all sorts of promises that simply cant be made, and that is more than likely the situation here to, sf are gonna really struggle in government, theyre gonna have to pony up with all sorts of uncomfortable partners, in order to get the job done, and that might not work out for anyone.... social housing alone wont solve this, we need a broad arrange of solutions and approaches, we ll also need major involvement from private sector entities to, including the fire sectors, all that wont be easy.... they ll struggle...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    I am biased because of my extreme dislike at dysfunction and blatant corruption of FF/FG culture. However.

    Watching Eoin Ó Broin stumble over his words on prime time and not able to answer core questions, which were simple enough was, alarming. I understand the program is too short for any meaningful discussion and should be a long format. Still I think Darragh O'Brien came off better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,011 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,398 ✭✭✭jj880


    😆

    Yeah got my eye on a bedsit in Athlone. 500k. Bit of a fixxerupper but need to get on the ladder.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,914 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Things like the latest Metrolink delay don't exactly fill me with confidence. Maybe if these projects got rammed thru planning as quickly as all the cycle lanes on the Dublin Quays did then maybe Ireland would have a hope.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,011 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yea these delays are a serious problem, if we want to get serious in regards reducing carbon etc, we ve got to crack on with public transport, this is the only way to truly deal with the problem, we have to flood the country with alternative transport options, we cant keep defaulting to the personal car



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Gobsh1tes, pure and simple. They should have no ability to object to any development for a few years until the "crisis" or "emergency" aspect changes.

    Honestly, can't believe how people are so oblivious to how elitist and "pull up the ladders" these people are; Mary Hennessy and Tom van Nuenen's objection is here https://webapps.dublincity.ie/AnitePublicDocs/00993327.pdf Such rubbish; "transitory population", "ghettoisation", "lack of public transport as the Luas is 20 minutes walk away so people will cycle and the infrastructure for cycling is poor";

    "The rent only nature of the scheme belongs to another era, the direct rent taking being reflective of the worse form of ‘rentiarism’. It is inevitable that the limited type of unit proposed, will attract a ghettoized population, who through no fault of their own, will contribute little to the support of an established community. We will all end up ‘bowling alone’."

    If you look at the objectors, it seems to all be coordinated by the residents of the Abbeyfield estate in Milltown. These are all homeowners of course.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Baffled as to why you came here looking for advice when you have all the answers..



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sorry if I came across as knowing all the answers, far from it. Just giving my opinion on matters, is that not what this discussion forum is about?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    "So what to do now?" -don't know

    "Surely there could not be a worse time to buy?" -there always could be something worst.

    "Are people crazy to buy houses that are at least 70k overpriced and sometimes even more?" -you have wrong assumptions what is overpriced.

    "Will they regret it in a few years when they go to upgrade and find their house is in negative equity just to get on the property ladder?" - you have wrong assumptions here as well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,328 ✭✭✭Brego888


    Are open viewings still a thing since covid? Big groups of people turning up without individual bookings to view a property for a period scheduled by an estate agent?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭The Student



    we are a small open economy. If costs of labour increases business will source that labour in other countries and we loose the income tax raised as a result of employment.

    How do you suggest we put more income into people's pockets?

    Bear in mind we are one of the most indebted countries so if we reduce taxes to put more money in people's pockets where/how is the shortfall in tax revenue funded?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    The level of debt that is used in calculating how indebted Ireland is heavily distorted thanks to the multi-national presence in Ireland just the same as GDP is a unreliable indicator of the domestic economy for similar reasons.

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    I'm not saying that Ireland does not have a lot of debt but it is substantially overstated due to the debt issued by multi-nationals.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,125 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Is the poster not referring to national debt and is it not a real figure?... I know all the other non financial Corp debt, Gdp figures etc are useless.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    National debt to gni is a good indicator.

    Yes we are the higher end of the distribution curve but not the most indebted country in the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,329 ✭✭✭The Student


    We are not the most indebted country but we are heavily indebted.

    The question posed was how to achieve the aims of the poster. Do we go into further debt and kick the can down the road and when we go to roll over the bonds the interest rates increase or do we tackle the high cost of living and make some tough decisions.

    Ironically there is an article in today's Independent highlighting this very fact. I understand costs are slightly higher due to our geographic location etc but this can be offset in reducing the associated taxes.

    We are making ourselves internationally uncompetitive in the main because of our wage costs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,261 ✭✭✭Gant21


    Stay borrowing, stay building and stay giving them out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Just watched the debate, couple of points

    This was a debate for Sarah Mcenerny not the puppy that was wheeled out

    Ff continually interrupting SF while trying to portray a narrative that the opposite was happening and getting away with it

    Opposing developments by ff/Fg is more or less nimbyism it appears to be value for money grounds with SF. If we are gifting public land to private developers with the result being "affordable" housing priced at 350 to 400k, we are getting further away from a solution, therefore opposition is valid. From the program one got the impression that only SF opposed developing

    50/50 split between social/affordable and private seems reasnoble given the income divide shown in tax receipts during covid.

    SF claimed 25% of their 40k figure would be through salvaging the empty properties, hopefully future debates will press them on how this will be achieved



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,011 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    we have to get over this fear of public debt, its far safer than relying on private debt/credit, in order to run our economies, theres now plenty of evidence to support this, once again, debt is the money supply, no debt means no money supply, means no economy. yes long term perpetual bonds are now a critical element in getting us out of this hole, its clearly obvious that relying on credit to do this wont work, it will more than likely keep pushing the price of property up, due to its need and want to maximise returns. by not relying on public money creation systems, i.e. bond markets etc, we in fact are obviously just kicking the urgent need of building now down the road, waiting for something to happen..... wage inflation has decoupled with asset price inflation, most obvious with property, i.e. wages need to increase urgently, in order for us to be able to maintain our debt obligations, private debt being the most vulnerable, as private debt can rarely be rolled over, certainly not for the individual



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The world needs more people like him to highlight what is happening.

    Often wondered why Irish banks were bundling one off houses in rural locations into portfolios and selling into investors back in 2014/15. One would have thought that investors would have gone after bulk properties in a concentrated region to allow for easier management.

    Must be quiet a money spinner now if the state is paying HAP and responsible for the management and upkeep



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,224 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    If the state is paying HAP the LL in s conversation responsible for maintenance and upkeep.

    Yes some LA have entered into longterm lease's on some houses. Totally different scheme to HAP.

    Not sure if the banks bundled single houses into batches if selling. Generally the put batches of mortgages together to sell on as they were finding it impossible to manage the nonpaying houses. This was because it was virtually impossible to repossess.

    Legally they could not sell any houses that they repossessed in batches. Each is an individual cases. Technically the best price has to be achieved for each individual houses as the remaining debt is with the owner. This is why most were sold at auction. It was why there was serious value in houses and apartments from 2011-2016. Some were sold for 10% of original build costs and mortgages. Small and mid sized investors bough these

    There was some apartment blocks and house projects that were sold in bulk to larger investors. Some of these were serious value. Amy that were.not 90% complete were not sold until the market started to lift 3-4 years ago.

    Your post just shows how misconceptions start and how many have no understanding of what happened.

    Slava Ukrainii



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