Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

For me it is also about supply picking up, not just about prices potentially dropping, so people have a bit more variety in what is available at these high prices rather than bidding over the odds for something they're not fully happy with just to have anything.

The way things are going with COVID ending, it looks like heading into spring/summer 2023 would be a more optimistic time to be buying the long term home. Particularly as a home buyer, a lot of people coming over here for jobs aren't coming here to buy homes and building sites were shuttered for months the last past two years so I don't think that the post-covid migration tap being turned back on will impact on the home buying market too much particularly in terms of the availability of properties, if not the price.

It's amazing how people think anything over a year or two years in the grand scheme of a 25/30 year mortgage is someone a long time but I see people fretting the whole time and not appreciating that COVID restrictions ending followed by a period of recovery to normality will take time, at least a year when it's over, so no need to be so panicked.

Its really crazy to think this is happening again. Im gettin a strong smell of "This time it will be different" in this thread - just waiting on someone to say it will be a soft landing any day now.

We're completely fvcked and if people thought the 2008 crash was bad they better get strapped in.

100k in building materials isn't a lot and it's a hell of a lot less than what you could get for that 18 months ago.

I hope you aren't thinking a 100k would go along way in building a house.

The last time the market crashed we were building 80k+ houses a year. That is 4 times last year's number's. From 2000-2008 we build 550k houses or 60 k houses a year.

When we reach 2/3 of the numbers for 3-4 years in a row I will be getting worried

Milltown residents say build-to-rent scheme will create ‘a ghettoised population’ (irishtimes.com)

Blackrock residents oppose seven-storey Frascati apartment scheme (irishtimes.com)

Two articles published on the same day. The sheer contempt held by home owners for the younger generation and renters as a whole really is staggering. It amazes me that these people are comfortable putting their names to such comments and I really hope one day they become socially unacceptable. Similarly all the talk of the "cost of living crisis" at the moment because energy bills are going up. If you think that's bad, try renting in Dublin for the last 5 years...but of course that's not news worthy because renters aren't real people.

"Milltown residents Mary Hennessy and Ton van Nuenen have told the council that the units proposed “will create a significant transitory population due to little variation of tenancy, or size of unit across the accommodations”. 

They said “the effect of such a ghettoised population will be to create a significant disruption factor within what is a mature residential area”, adding that renters “will contribute little to the support of an established community”. "

"The objection lodged by Dr William Killeen on behalf of the association said that he and its members “feel that any investment made in our houses run the risk of serious monetary impairment if the scheme is approved”.

A number of other objections have been lodged from the area, with Daniel Crean telling the council that “Ireland needs new houses – everyone deserves a home to live in, but it needs to be done in the appropriate manner and in the right location”.

....this is going to be critical going forward, we urgently need to increase the stock of 'public housing', this is a combination of both social and other types of accommodation, but all these types must always remain in public ownership. an increasing amount of people cannot afford either rental or purchasing, this is where the state must step in, and public housing is the way to do it, many of these individuals can afford to pay substantially more than many social housing tenents, large amounts of public borrowing is required to build, and these individuals can pay a significant amount of this debt.

Has anyone seen any sign of any affordable sale or shared equity schemes coming up from their local authorities or even being allowed to register for future schemes?

We are circa 6 months on from Housing for all being announced and I hear a lot of talk but zero actually happening!

What about the US1tr infrastructure. The 750bn next gen EU funds. Italy wants to rebuild a whole new high speed train network. The amount of steel, wood, labour needed for that….

not a cent of that has been spent yet. You don't need irish houses for price inflation.

People are going to vote SF because it is the only feasible way to give FF/FG the kick up the arse they really need. It is basically drain the swamp but without the racism.

Trouble is that even if (and it is a very big if) a future government gets its act together, how long would it take for them to actually sort things out? I'm not hanging around for 10 years for it to happen.

By the time this government’s turn runs out we’ll be back to austerity. Sweet f all SF will be able to do then. There was a 1y window for big government Spending and that has passed.

I didnt say the next crash (and contributing factors) will be the same as the last one.

"People have savings. The price of houses AND materials are going up this time so prices will level off. There's no supply of houses."

These are the new versions of: Rent is dead money, Are you renting or buying? There'll be a soft landing, Bertie on the TV saying the tiger will roar for another 20 years and anyone who whinges should jump off a pier somewhere.

Everyone has their own definition of hysteria. Mine would be people panicking and convincing themselves to buy towards the end of a bubble.