Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I think that Sinn Fein's getting into power would make little difference. There are legions of civil servants who have enormous influence, and they are not elected. Besides, the Left in general all too often play right into the hands of neo-liberalism, whether they realise it or not.

Given that there has been recent talk of a "post-covid boom", I think it is a safe bet that we are condemned to ride this rollercoaster of economic chaos for another decade at the least.

Those In NE were certainly on their minds as they are more likely to vote than renters, but I'd say the primary target for the government was the rescue of the banks and their balance sheets

Renters in Ireland are second class citizens. Think of the response when energy bills rose a bit. 100 euro for everyone.

Rents are a multiples of energy costs with substantial annual increases. Do you think they'd get even as much as a tax credit

FF definitely to blame...totally reckless what they did

FG also to blame, they have had long enough now (even with covid) to not make such a massive cock up of it ..... their policies are moronic so they don't get a free pass afaic.....there have been many many highly questionable policies/decisions under their watch and not just in relation to housing.

SF I shudder to think what kind of bolokology they will come up with....I can't believe I'm saying this but with what I've seen so far from them it looks like they could easily make things even worse.

The only thing I can imagine being worse is if we were somehow governed by the dregs of the Conservatives currently destroying our neighbours across the water...that's literally it, the only solace I can find is Boris Johnson isn't the Taoiseach.

And our current greens with their heads either in the clouds or firmly inserted up their own back passages will get to make a mess of environmental policy no matter who gets in so there's that to look forward to.

I agree I have been on here a few times stating that any party getting into government should have a clear and concise 10 point plan as in 10 things they will do for joe public if and when they get into government for the 4 years. When they are in at the end of the 4 years if they don't get elected again their pensions should be cut by the % of what was not implemented so if they impliemented 1 out of 10 things they promised then they should only get a pension pot of 10%. Its nearly like the bankers back in the boom , getting paid bonuses for arranging 110% mortgages with no one keeping an eye on it not to mention there was no drawback if a person didnt bother paying the mortgage, the lads legged it with their bonuses. I find it galling that any spoofer can promise the sun, moon and stars and have 4 years of first class flights, Limos, champagne and caviar on the tax payers dime and not bother with any of the promises that got them there in the first place and worse still is they get paid a pension when they head into the sunset. This needs to be addressed in order to keep politicians to their word.

The evolution of dysfunction

There certainly is a back-lash to globalism / neo-liberalism, but I think it's going no where. Really, beyond the online circles of politics or economics, most seem to have no idea what neo-liberalism or globalism is. Furthermore, there are investment funds now that control assets that dwarf the GDP of entire states. Blackrock investment controls, I believe, something in the region of ten trillion dollars. Thus, I disagree that neo-liberalism is toast, respectfully.

With regard to the Irish situation, I genuinely think that SF will do absolutely nothing one way or the other. They can pontificate, wave tri-colours, promise the earth, moon and the stars, but the entire apparatus of the state is a well oiled machine to promote and further the causes of globalism. Just look at something like Ireland 2040. Do you think that that that was cooked up by politicians? SF may as well be a collection of gorillas in suits for all the difference it will make.

The only political parties that seem to have a handle on globalism and actively call it out are those deemed "alt-right", and I would not bank on any of them getting anything more than a few seats here and there. These parties suffer from a massive hinderance in that they almost always court, or are composed of, fundamentalist Catholics, and that will only alienate people who otherwise may have been supporters.

Thus, what do I think that this means for housing? Well, I expect this mess to get worse over the coming years. There will, almost certainly, be one hell of an economic upset somewhere down the road. The state has learned that it can burn out the funny-money printing presses, call the inflation that occurs a boom and not once get called out by the venal, perfidious collection of hit-piece writers referred to as the media. This would be a comedy were it not so sad...

My two cents (rising with inflation).

Don’t know

Didn't you know? The reason anyone under 40 can't afford a house is that we buy too much take-away coffee.

As my dad once told me, "we hadn't a stick of furniture when we got our first house". What he leaves out is that the house in question was killer location in Dublin 3, a minute's walk from his parents, purchased for just over two years' combined salary and paid off in full in just over five years. Oh, and he was 25 when he moved in. But again, not a stick...

Now if only you'd not had that coffee once a week. Then you could have afforded to buy a house in Stillorgan for cash!

All anecdotes. As is Jacks story which adds humor to the article but is not the bit that I was focused on.

Key points:

"A couple renting in 1989 would have had to save around a quarter of their income, after paying rent and tax, over a year to raise a 10% deposit. Today’s equivalent couple needs to put away almost half of their disposable income over a year to do the same thing.

If today’s pair rent in Dublin, it becomes almost impossible. They would need to save 75% of their disposable income to get a deposit."

"In the same period, wages have only increased by around 100% in real terms, meaning that earnings have not kept pace with property price increases.

And, despite the famously high mortgage interest rates of the 1980s, buyers today are still paying far more for their mortgages.

"There’s been a 169% increase in mortgage repayments in real terms," Turnbull, who conducted the research, found.

Mr Turnbull calculated that the current average income of a couple after tax is €5,176 per month. Average mortgage repayments come to €1,176 a month – meaning almost a quarter of everything earned goes to mortgage repayments. Homeowners in Dublin pay an even greater percentage of their income on a mortgage, some 28%.

Raising a deposit was significantly easier for previous generations

In 1989, the equivalent national figure was just 15%. There was more income left over for life’s other expenses, even when borrowers were paying higher mortgage rates."

Everything else is just mental gymnastics.

Most older people are fairly understanding these days, but still a cohort who for some reason can't just accept the FACT that buying a house now is incomprehensibly harder than it was for previous generations - even in the face of irrefutable evidence. It's very confusing.

No mention of employment anywhere in this which I thought would be a big factor. In previous generations, emigration in order just to find work, let alone a decent pay, was a part of life as we all well know. Hard to get a mortgage if you don't have a job.

Workers in modern Ireland today are amongst the worlds most skilled & highly paid in in the world and hence attractive to immigrants looking for a better life. Long term property prices are directly correlated by population growth driven by immigration. Australia and Canada are good examples of this.

I am not arguing that it is easier/harder, rather making an observation that different factors were at play, each with associated long term social implications.

A person in 1980 would be 8-10+ years into there career at 25-28. Average wages nowadays are pulled down by the amount of students working parttime.

I started working in the very late 70's an apprentice type job.

Wages 42 pounds after tax I had about 38 digs cost 18.50 and the trainfair home was 1.5 and I still had to hitch a lift another 8 miles home.

In 1982 I was earning about 100 pounds and had 72 net digs still( I was being moved around with work) 25pounds a week, I had bought a car and car insurance was 350 or 7 pounds a week

In 1984 I changed jobs I earned 142 pounds it was 105 net I think. By 1990 I was earning over190 pounds/ week which was 140 net

In early noughties after working over 20 years in my career I was earning ( as the euro was coming in our employer used to do the wages in Euro and pounds. My wages were 450 euro/ week and I had about 300 out of it.

My youngest left college this year. On the course he did the graduates are from 30-35k with one outlier on 50 k( a female gone to a larger Employer who is working on gender balance in the company)

30-35 k is 23,5-27.5k in pounds. If as the article stated that wages have doubled in the meantime his cohort would be starting there career on 11.5-13.6k pounds. I was 5-6 years working before I earned that.

As I said lies, damm lies and statics

And just a few add on's. I was lucky enough to be employed full-time. Lots of people on three day weeks or unemployed.

Building wages in Ireland were quite low by international standards. Plenty of unskilled and semi skilled workers. Machinery driving was considered unskilled and s lot of drivers owned there own machine if they wanted to make a living. So house building costs were quite low. Finally you got four walls more or less not what you get now

Of course it’s in plain sight.

only people denying reality are “big government lefties” who think the rampant price hikes have something to do with supply chains and corporate greed. Last time the world experienced inflation like this (70s) Keynesian big government was “in”. What a coincidence….