Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118544365#Comment_118544365

I believe we have one of the lowest turnover of houses in the world, it's highly unlikely that existing homeowners are driving prices higher.

People buy houses to live In and their passed down the generations, therefore people buy houses to live in while government pump them into an investment vehicle.

Therefore the population believe houses are homes, government have turned them into investment vehicles.

Also that graphic you posted states that FTB are buying used over new at a ratio greater than 2:1 meaning two thirds are foregoing htb or that new prices are out of their reach

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545026#Comment_118545026

Being priced on location alone, just off Saint Vincent's Road. Move it 300 meters in any direction and you could knock €150k off the asking - at least.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545026#Comment_118545026

This is a highly desirable location. Very short walking distance to Greystones main street, but still tucked out of the way so it'll be quiet.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118543375#Comment_118543375

and how many extra properties will this 27k construction workers need to built to be housed?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546334#Comment_118546334

Have you morphed into another poster not seen for a while 😁

We need supply, let's get in workers to build, oh no we can't, where will they live,

OK, let's continue to sit on our hands

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545026#Comment_118545026

G4 always commands a premium.

Joking, but that is a nice mark-up since 2017 where it is listed on PPR for €437,000.00 - 43%.

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546563#Comment_118546563

The markup reminds me of this one in HC

Sold September 2019 - 450k

On the market now - 725k

61% rise or €8,430 per SQM

Granted its a period red-brick in D6W but still

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-275-harolds-cross-road-harolds-cross-dublin-6w/3690873

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546334#Comment_118546334

so long as they all build more than 1 house each during their time in the country, its all good

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546530#Comment_118546530

No just highlighting the problem we will be inundated with foreign migrants once covid is gone we will be back to the trend of over 50k people a year coming into the country which was the norm just before covid. Ireland is an attractive place to live and to work. It has it down sides but when your coming from the third or second world and you want to learn English , get a job and progress our country is a beacon for people from all over the globe. This is before our birth vs death rates are taken into consideration we are a nation of breeders and we are living longer this is also feeding into the issue of housing. So your once off 27K construction workers will be small potatoes when it comes to housing but where do they go to live when they get here??? I am not slagging your suggestion just asking the question. I think we need a hell of a lot more than 27k construction workers to solve our current and future housing deficit by the way..

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546774#Comment_118546774

Thats assuming that they are all going to leave?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546907#Comment_118546907

I get what your saying, but we are allowed choose who we can let in from outside the EU. If 27k construction workers wish to come in to add to the existing pool of 130k, great, give them a 5 year visa, more than likely we will need them long term as there is an age issue with the current pool so we'll need more workers to pay their pensions.

As for where we are going to put them, an extra 27k construction workers could boost output enough to house them all so we have a net gain after 12 months.

I don't see anyone ringing up eli lily to tell them to cancel their plans for a new facility in Limerick because we don't have any houses for the workers

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546907#Comment_118546907

Emigration massively affected our population demographics. Not to be morbid but deaths per year will increase considerably over the next 40 years.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp3oy/cp3/assr/

The population hump from 80s children is now likely in the 40s age bracket from the 216 figures.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118543916#Comment_118543916

The alternative of the state buying private houses for social housing and competing with FTB’s is providing HAP until such time as the the state can build its own social housing. And once the state starts building social houses it will create extra demand on building resources which will push up the building cost unless the state import builders which would in turn put upward pressure on rents.

With regards institutional investors most of these are pension funds or are REITS that will package up cashflow and sell on so that they can buy more property. I just don't see a situation where these big buyers will exit the market and sell existing properties. Rising rates will mean that property will become less attractive as yields on other assets rise so we may see a slow down in the buying of new properties but I somewhat doubt that this will happen to an extend that it would cause a fall in prices.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545278#Comment_118545278

FTB's are buying used houses because there is not a sufficient supply of new houses.

I think that a lower turnover of houses is due to the fall in house prices after '08 because before then the talk was always about getting on the ladder and trading up overtime. The no of former house owner buying whether trading up or down or sideways is still twice the no of FTB.

Source: CSO HPA02 - Residential Dwelling Property Transactions

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118543882#Comment_118543882

The FED is raising rates fast and at the same time undertaking QT but as Powell said the other day the will closely monitor the situation and adjust accordingly if needed. To me that was saying that if choke growth to much whilst fighting inflation we will ease off or reverse some of the changes if the US economy starts to go into recession.

The US will have phased out the purchase of new QE by the end of march. Which put in English is that will stop growing their balance sheet. Once QT starts they will start reducing their balance sheet by either selling back to the open market or by not buying (or reducing) new debt when the existing debt comes to maturity.

I don't believe that one area re-opening earlier is the canary in the coalmine as any inflationary pressures from reopening would be temporary.

The US economy is in a different place to the European economy. The US are at/or close to full employment and this along with the fact that they don't have to go through a pay review process with unions means that prices in there labour market change quickly and I would put this down to the main factor driving inflation in US at the moment.

The EU is not at full employment (I think it is 7-8% in Europe compared to 4-5% in the US and UK) and the fact the workforce has a significantly higher Union participation means that there is not the same upward pressure on wages as in the US. I should add that I believe the Irish economy is more in step with the US economic cycle as opposed to the EU due to the amount of US FDI in Ireland. Brexit has generated inflation in the UK way more than it has throughout the EU and any strife in the Ukraine will push gas and oil prices higher which will impact all countries a like and not just the EU.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118544130#Comment_118544130

How do you stop the supply of money from going into property. Introduce further legislation to to restrict the amounts people can borrow for house purchases? Is that your solution?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545278#Comment_118545278

I believe we have one of the lowest turnover of houses in the world, it's highly unlikely that existing homeowners are driving prices higher.

This is the root of the problem, and I'm consistently amazed it does not attract more comment.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118546563#Comment_118546563

40 percent isn't that unusual in that time frame in desirable locations as mad as that sounds

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545026#Comment_118545026

Bungalows are relatively scarce aswell and desirable to those trading down so that'll be a factor also.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118551479#Comment_118551479

I guess....

It looks kind of like a prison to me. I hope I never feel the urge to move to such a place on retirement.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118551315#Comment_118551315

Existing home owners account for nearly half of all property purchased.. rising house prices don’t benefit them when they are selling and buying at the same time. But they still contribute to price increases especially if competing with FTB’s

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118552585#Comment_118552585

I would think 45% is low on long term averages. But even if 45% is the norm, it is 45% of a very low number.

Buyers moving up/down/sideways should always account for bulk of purchases. We want more of them buying and selling, not less.

I've no idea of the figures, but I would guess if you found the long term averages you'd find that currently existing owner occupiers are a little below the average, FTBers are a little above average and non owner occupiers significantly above average.

Wouldn't rising interest rates also slow down construction growth?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553161#Comment_118553161

I agree that it is a 45% of a low number but unless you have owner occupiers downsizing and other owners upsizing at the same time you are dependent on first time buyers or non owner occupiers entering the market and buying used houses to enable properties to become available for sale.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118553702#Comment_118553702

Yes it would as construction costs especially financing costs of new developments would become more expensive which would mean that cost of building would increase and if developers are unable to sell at a higher cost then they won’t build which results in more upward pressure on rents.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554063#Comment_118554063

You'll get no argument from me that you need owner occupiers up/downsizing/moving sideways at the same time, which is exactly why I said the low turnover rate is the root of all the problems. Once the turnover rate begins to rise to the norms a lot of the current problems will be alleviated.

Villa05

The state won't build and traditionally the private sector built for youngish couples at close to peak earnings that were buying for the future, hence the proliferation of the 3 bed semi d.

There is nothing to downsize too.

The building sector have us all between a rock and a hard place and magically now a 1/2 bed unit is more expensive than a 3 bed semi.

I suspect it's a bit more about knowing where the money is rather than knowing the cost of construction

.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554223#Comment_118554223

Sociology people are reluctant to sell at a lower price than they originally purchased for or think what there property is worth despite the fact that property they would buy may also be lower.

Even if there was more churn it wouldn’t lower the prices it would just increase the supply available for sale and at the same time increase the demand so can’t see how it would alleviate problems in the housing market.

Villa05

Won't come as a shock but...

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/housing-for-all-wont-mean-more-new-builds-for-private-buyers-fc91b2ca

There will be no increase in the number of new-build homes available to purchase on the private market this year, a Business Post analysis has found

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118554380#Comment_118554380

I suspect if there was more churn, Housing stock would be used more efficiently, less likely to be empty and fall into disrepair

The costs associated with buying and selling are a deterrent