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Nuclear power in Ireland

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Cheap small reactors don't exist yet.

    Reliable small reactors have been used in submarines since the 1950's. They aren't remotely cheap. The UK recently had all 7 of it's attack subs offline but they kept at least one of the four mission critical missile subs going at all times. So possibly not as reliable unless you are prepared to throw lots of resources at them.

    Rolls Royce won't commit to develop unless there's something like £20-30Bn worth of firm orders in the bag. Come back 20 years after they get serious funding to see if they work as advertised.


    And we can't even be certain the missile subs work.

    Nuclear weapons: A firm public commitment to build the £100bn renewal of the Trident weapons system, followed by an

    equally firm private commitment not to build it. They’re secret submarines, no one will ever know. It’s a win win.

    * Lord Buckethead - If you can't trust an intergalactic space lord who can you trust ?


    Nuclear baseload is impossible in Ireland. Only 25% of demand needs to come from synchronous generators or compensators and that's well covered by the geographically separated units that are needed to provide voltage and frequency across the grid.

    Nuclear diverts resources away from renewables and storage eg: Hinkley C will cost €27-28bn (and £80 bn extra on fuel bills)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭RainInSummer


    @Capt'n Midnight

    Contrast the output from US stations with the UK:

    Not far off a clean sweep of 100's across the board, with only two producing nothing.

    FWIW I am a strong believer in nuclear but am still unconvinced it's a good match for Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    There is next to no economic arguement for nuclear power in Ireland that makes any bit of sense. It would basically amount to the Irish exchequer bunging money to keep the French nuclear industry afloat, paying for it via massive capital outlay and higher electricity prices over the lifetime of the plant. It would be madness.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    There is no economic argument for solar either, but with the money being siphoned off from taxpayers into the Cayman Is accounts of the sleaze bags begging for fixed contracts so they can build their cheap money printing machines, there certainly is and the morons in power have already pencilled in Twh of subsidised solar stupidity.

    Why is electricity so expensive in Germany? - Ok, lets do that then.

    There are only three likely paths to zero CO2 - batteries, hydrogen and nuclear. Batteries are out as they will always be more expensive than nuclear, especially considering lithium prices are skyrocketing, leaving hydrogen. If hydrogen pans out in terms of cost and practicality, great, nuclear needn't be considered, but it's not a sure thing and it's not costed and there is no reason whatsoever to suggest that renewables plus hydrogen storage will be either safer or cheaper than nuclear. The inefficiencies of generating hydrogen and then creating NOX free electricity from it are prodigious. Inefficiency = cost.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Last year the average was 90% but it dropped below 80% from 17/10 to 4/11 with 2 days at 75% ( 27-26/10/2021 )

    That's weeks of backup needed unless you plan on building one spare nuclear plant for every three you need operational.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭RainInSummer


    So what's the back up, gas peakers?

    Even at it's worst nuclear is still doling out a pants down shellacking to wind or solar.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight



    Nuclear provides about 10% of the worlds electricity or 4% of primary energy. There's 90 years of economic uranium reserves left at current usage so nuclear could decarbonise about 3.6 years of global energy. Since the initial fuelling up of a reactor takes about 3 years worth of uranium you might not even get close.

    Uranium is $20/Kg. Even if you looked at low grade ores of $260/Kg you get one fuel load and 2 years 4 months of additional fuel.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭RainInSummer


    Maybe the argument shouldn't be economic, maybe on environmental ground it makes sense.

    Even if we did consider it from a purely economic point of view there's less sense in throwing money at wind or solar.

    But I can walk up the hill and see two large windfarms in the (thankfully) far distance, and there's an 80ac solar farm in planning about 10 mins away.

    I love solar from a demand side reduction point of view, but that's where it should stay IMO.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,037 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    realistically ireland could never afford nuclear, the costs are insane as we all know.

    we could get a lot more for the buck with all of the other alternatives available.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Hinkley Point C is the poster child for the ridiculousness of nuclear energy as an economic prospect.

    Notably, the British nuclear industry was one of the very few parts of the economy to survive Margret Thatcher's privatization blitz, because the market wasn't fooled, they realised it's a duff industry that can't turn a buck and the decommissioning costs make it completely unpalatable.

    Roll on 2008 when Gordon Brown's brother was a big-wig at EDF, a PR blitz by the industry and a comically bad deal for the UK taxpayer gave the Hinkley Point C the go-ahead. Turns out that EDF couldn't make it work even with a sweetheart deal so the Chinese state were cut-in to the process (way to go).

    The undercurrent of all this is that one of the driving forces for the push for Hinkley Point C is it's necessity for Britain to maintain its independent nuclear deterrent, Trident (with the Chinese state hilariously poking around the entire process) - with baked in higher electricity costs thrown into the bargain.

    One of the biggest infrastructural jokes and all-time bait and switch boondoggles ever to be pulled on the UK (possibly Europe if we're honest).



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Hinkley C is €27Bn so that's €13.5Bn per reactor. But the UK weren't the only ones to get suckered by the cost and delays.

    The EPR in Finland, Olkiluoto-3 was initially put at €3.2bn, but in 2012 Areva estimated the overall cost at closer to €8.5bn. Since then, it has not made public any updated cost projection. And it's 12 years late.

    On the 11th of Jan EDF announced that Flamaville 3 has been delayed another six months so pushed back to a 2024 start, only 11 years late and counting. Cost increased again from €12.4Bn to €12.7Bn "In 2015 euros and excluding interim interest" not to mention the costs of getting power elsewhere during the delay. (Was originally costed at €3.3Bn in 2005 values)


    But the UK agreed to the strike price that will likely see another €80Bn lifetime cost added to that power station.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,037 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    agree and i couldn't have put that anywhere near as good as you have.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The aim is zero CO2. How are you going to achieve it with renewables and what's the suatained average final cost? You must have the numbers to have the confidence of claiming getting a lot more bang for the buck.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The results are in after 70 years of experimentation. Nuclear power doesn't and can't wash its own face without massive government subsidies, huge capital outlay with unacceptable financing risks for the exchequer, a ridiculously high strike price per MWh for the consumer, huge cost externalities and decommissioning and waste management costs.

    The notion that nuclear energy is a cheap energy source is the stuff of Ronald Regan General Electric videos from the 1950s - it's atomic age PR bluff from an industry that has no future, and with good reason.




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Last year Spain allocated 3GW of solar and wind at an average price of €24.47/MWh. The offer was oversubscribed with 9.7GW capacity submitted. Burning electrolysed hydrogen in gas turbines would give you an overall efficiency of 40%. So you'd need to spend €61.18 per MWh at the other end of a pipeline.

    That's less than half the Hinkley C discounted strike price of €127.44/MWh.

    The €9.5Bn Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which can carry 55 billion m3 of gas a year over a distance of 1,200Km. That's 10 times our annual usage of natural gas. Hydrogen has 1/3rd the energy per m3 though even so it's still over three times our annual usage of gas.

    It's 900Km from Ferrol in Spain to Kinsale. 1,080Km to San Sebastian if you stay on the continental shelf or Brest in France would be 450Km undersea if you wanted to use existing networks to transport gas



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,709 ✭✭✭zv2


    Once you open a uranium mine the trouble starts. Radioactivity comes out immediately. Then they go in with machines and the radioactive dust rises and goes into the air, streams, the seas. And that's only the start of it. Leave this stuff in the ground.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,792 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Some of the stuff I've read on this thread has been amusing but I feel the need to bring in a much needed reality check and some facts.

    Firstly, the "point" about nuclear being unreliable is nonsense. I've been monitoring the live data on and off from Electricity Map and in the large nuclear market of France, most of their nuclear capacity is available at all times. The data on capacity factors for various power types are clear and irrefutable.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor

    Nuclear plants also avoid the problem of region-wide drop offs in output as they do not depend on the weather. It is common for wind speeds to be similar across a wide region and solar panels are also tied to the time of day, so again, will all produce or drop off production at the same time across a very large region. The idea that a power type can all fail simultaneously is much more true of "renewables" than nuclear.

    This bizarre idea that nuclear "doesn't make sense economically" is coming from people who support weather-dependent renewables which are the ultimate creature of government. Without renewables mandates, subsidies for renewables, use/wastage of enormous amounts of raw materials, a willful blindness to the extreme destruction cause to nature by these supposedly "green" technologies, a tolerance from extreme unreliability of output, and a tolerance for mind blowingly high electricity costs like they have in Germany and Denmark, without a tolerance of for all of this, "renewables" would not exist.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing

    Not to mention the fact that these renewables for all the cost, environmental destruction and unreliability they case, aren't actually all that useful in reducing emissions. Right now, at this moment in 2022, Germany is producing more than 500g of CO2 per kw/h of electricity. This is despite the fact that they have been following a policy prescription laid down in 1980 called the Energiewende.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energiewende

    Though the Energiewende was first promulgated as a policy in what was the West Germany, I don't think Leonid Brezhnev or his successor Yuri Andropov who was leading the Soviet Union was pushing Erich Honecker of the former DDR (a.k.a East Germany, the German Democratic Republic) to follow suit. Because that's how long this bolloxology has been failing for. 40+ years of failure. It was nonsense when first promulgated nearly half a century ago, it's nonsense today and it will likely continue to be half a century from now.

    Meanwhile we actually do know how to reduce emissions because the French did it starting in and around the 1970s. They virtually eliminated all CO2 from their electricity grid, by accident, (nobody cared about climate change back then) and simultaneously allowed a large scale increase in the use of electricity by French people and businesses from the mid to late 20th century, all at reasonable prices.

    As to costs, we know, absolutely and without any doubt that with good reactor choice, sound public policy and sensible regulation, nuclear power plants can be delivered on time and to a sensible budget. The commissioning of two reactors at Sizewell B from 1985-1995, a pair of PWRs in the United Kingdom shows us this. France likely had similar experiences as they were able to electrify their entire county and didn't go bankrupt in the process.

    As to this idea that Ireland is too small a market to justify a nuclear programme, there are 5 million people in the Republic and another 2+ million in the North, plus the associated workplaces, industries etc. Plus there is a growing demand for data centres, and soon electric cars. Oh and we're also just a little over the water from a very large market in the United Kingdom, well within the range of electrical interconnectors.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Calling bullsh*t on the costs of nuclear power. Look at how Hinkley Point C is being funded, the feed-in tariffs intended by the UK government to transition to renewables is being used to prop up the project's construction the agreed strike price per Kwh to make the project wash its face is multiples of other power generation types and far in excess of typical wholesale electricity prices. Your argument fails on that point and the cost overruns are replicated in other new build reactors in France and Finland.

    While legacy nuclear plants may look like they are producing cheap electricity, a German study concluded that over the lifetime of a plant, taking into account financing costs, disposal of waste, decommissioning costs and other hidden goodies that Ronald Regan in the 1950s didn't tell you about, nuclear power has never been economically viable and has always relied on huge state subsidies.

    Nuclear is complete bunkum from an economic point of view, and extra stupid for a small country like Ireland with no indigenous nuclear expertise.

    If your argument is for economically sustainable electricity, why on earth argue for nuclear? No private concern would touch a nuclear power project in Ireland and wouldn't dare finance it. That should tell you all you need to know. It can only possibly work with distortive much higher feed-in tariffs than we even currently have with a gas crunch and utterly huge economic risk borne by the state. Crazytown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,159 ✭✭✭RainInSummer


    Would you stop.

    I knew lads that worked in uranium mines in Canada in the 50s and somehow in an era when cigarette smoking was advertised as a way for women to have an easy birth those lads had more sense than to talk like that.

    There's a few things that should stay in the ground. Oil and gas are two of them.

    Uranium is one of the most heavily regulated metals on earth. You don't get to take the piss mining it.

    Quick edit: These days.... You don't get to take the piss these days.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Capacity factor is meaningless when you need a fourth power plant to cover for every three you depend on. That level of backup requirement is a hidden subsidy to the nuclear industry.

    Capacity factor tells you nothing about how unpredictable sudden outages are. Or how long scheduled or unscheduled outages will be extended. It tells you nothing about early retirement. Or delays in construction. Nuclear power is reliable right up until it isn't.

    Finland had 98% uptime in 2020, provided you ignore the 1/3rd of nuclear power that's been unavailable since 2009.



    EDF lost 20% of it's value when the French government stopped it benefiting from increased prices caused by a 10% reduction in EDF's nuclear energy this year. They'll have to walk away from €8.4Bn. It's real ENRON stuff when a company could make more money by taking plant offline than by operating it. Nuclear economics is bizarre.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Calling BS on your cherry picking. The UK are on a roll of stupidity - Brexit and Hinkley point being stand out examples. The UAE have not had a Hinkley point nonsense with their Nuclear program. They go the Koreans in.

    There are more nuclear power plants than Hinkley point - have fun scrolling: https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/world-nuclear-power-plants-in-operation

    Both the IPCC and IEA see more nuclear capacity as inevitable and vital. Nuclear power has been in the doldrums and that has not been beneficial for the industry, so costs in some regions have risen, such as Europe, while costs have been steady in regions that haven't been victims of nuclear negativism and panic attacks, such as Asia. Costs will improve as plant building activity increases.

    I am certain that Germany will come to it's senses and restart it's reactors at some point. It will only take one large German conglomerate to announce their energy operating costs are too high and they are relocating to Asia or somewhere, with significant job losses, for the German populace to wake up. The current threat to Ukraine is a very difficult wale up call in Germany at the moment. Whatever possessed them to think Nordstream 2 was a good idea? Making yourselves, and by association Europe, Putin's puppets - now how do you calculate the cost of that? Makes nuclear look cheap to me.

    It's risible to go on about nuclear being expensive and wind 'cheap', when the price paid for wind electrons is determined by the most expensive source at any given time. Wind costs whatever gas costs, and at the moment, that is more expensive than nuclear. The only financial winners are the turbine operators who have secured stupid pricing structures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Are you seriously suggesting Koreans could magically make the Hinkley project not the dumbest thing in the economic universe? Koreans are many things, but they can't defy basic economic principles or bung up a 'low cost' nuclear plant in England without Bangeldeshi and Nepalese migrant slave labour to rely on to do the dogsbody bork. Take an old wander through Google and find out for yourself about the scandals blighting the Korean nuclear industry with counterfeit and substandard essential parts for plants and forged documents to cut cost corners and how it effected the UAE project. The UAE project still cost 25 billion dollars and was a sweetheart deal from the Koreans to showcase their first nuclear export. And you talk to me about cherry-picking?

    Still too rich for Ireland's blood, and and still utterly economically thick.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Germany can't start reactors without another public referendum. Nuclear power can't escape politics. Politics can help it escape economics.

    Korea has had it's share of nuclear snafu's. A fake parts scandal took large parts off the grid with no advance warning. Right now the plan is to phase out nuclear plants when they reach their design life. Korea depends more on coal 15% than nuclear 10%.

    The UAE plant is years late. And costs nearly doubled from $18Bn to $32Bn in 2018 (costs on this one aren't fully clear since it's 3 out of the 4 reactors are still under construction.)


    the price paid for wind electrons is determined by the most expensive source at any given time

    Citation needed : because that's not how auctions / strike price / contract for difference works or any of this works - Even for offshore wind the UK is down to £46/MWh over 15 years on contract for difference which represents the maximum price.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The tide is rising: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-02/nuclear-power-is-essential-in-fighting-climate-change?srnd=premium-europe

    "Nuclear Power Is More Important Than Ever

    Retiring nuclear plants early was a bad idea. Failing to invest in new ones would be disastrous."



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Please explain how nuclear can be cost competitive with renewables backed up by hydrogen stored in disused gas fields like Kinsale ?

    What you recommend for dispatchable peaking plant because demand varies a lot during the day and there's extra demand in winter ?


    Annual demand for natural gas for heating and electricity in Ireland is 5 billion m3. To give an idea of how little it would cost to store it, the UK tried to save £750m over 10 years by closing the 30 year old 3.31 billion m3 Rough storage facility.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I don't need to explain, because there are no costings for grid scale hydrogen, production, storage and NOX free energy generation. The existing infrastructure is not able to handle H2 without upgrades and retrofits, given an H2 molecule is more than 100 times smaller than an NG one, so pumps that pressurise or move and seals that seal, will not work.

    You endlessly push this simplistic and dishonest idea that H2 for energy storage, transport and generation, is exactly the same for existing NG infrastructure as it is for existing H2 infrastructure used in industry where it was designed and built for H2 from design to completion. It just isn't.

    Bottom Line: Hydrogen is smaller and lighter, meaning it can slip through cracks methane can’t.

    Hydrogen will combust with both higher and lower concentrations of air present, making combustion more difficult to control.

    Quick flame speed plus a wider combustion range make hydrogen more challenging to control. 

    Hydrogen burns hotter than natural gas, so be mindful of material selection, heat dissipation and NOx emissions.

    Hydrogen might seem like a bargain in terms of heating value per pound, but you’ll need to bring in much more volume to get the same amount of energy as natural gas." https://www.powereng.com/library/6-things-to-remember-about-hydrogen-vs-natural-gas

    "While some gas infrastructure can safely accept higher fractions of hydrogen, most gas infrastructure would require major investment or replacement to be compliant with 100 percent hydrogen." https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/pictures/HydrogenProduction_CGEP_FactSheet2_052621_0.pdf

    "Potential infrastructure needs for the widespread adoption of green hydrogen: Once green hydrogen is produced, it must be stored, transported and potentially converted, unless consumed on-siteTransport and storage (e.g., pressurization) are meaningful barriers for green hydrogen being broadly cost competitiveMost existing natural gas distribution infrastructure cannot accommodate pure or even low-level blending (i.e., <20%) of hydrogen with natural gas

    ...

    Current Levelized Cost of Hydrogen Production(1)—1 MW ElectrolyzerSensitivity to Electricity Cost and Electrolyzer Capex(2)Sensitivity to Electricity Cost and Utilization Rate(3)Green hydrogen is a relatively expensive fuel as compared to conventional alternatives" https://www.lazard.com/media/451779/lazards-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen-analysis-vf.pdf



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Current Levelized Cost of Hydrogen Production(1)—1 MW ElectrolyzerSensitivity to Electricity Cost and Electrolyzer Capex(2)Sensitivity to Electricity Cost and Utilization Rate(3)Green hydrogen is a relatively expensive fuel as compared to conventional alternatives"

    Aye, and wind and solar were crazy expensive when they started out too. Nothing new there. I'm honestly not sure why you would expect different. This is normal in the life cycle of development and rollout of new techs/methods/structures.

    That being said, the costs associated with it are going one way, down, whereas nuke costs are going the opposite way, up



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,010 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Given the same logic, the cost of nuclear is on the way down, thanks to increasing adoption and cost savings anticipated from the shift to economies of scale with factory built SMRs

    "Capital cost under £1.8 Bn*•Typical LCOE of electricity £35-£50 per" https://www.ecosmr.fi/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Macfarlane-Smith_rolls_royce_overview_ecosmr_20210322.pdf

    "The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from the SMR would be $36/MWh compared to $92/MWh for the reference plant." https://www.nucnet.org/news/economic-modelling-compares-costs-of-smr-to-conventional-pwr-10-4-2020

    "When subsidies are included, onshore wind and utility-scale solar weigh in at $25/MWh and $27/MWh on average, respectively. Lazard pegs the LCOE for a new combined-cycle, gas-fired plant at $45/MWh to $74/MWh.

    The average LCOE for existing, fully depreciated coal, nuclear and combined-cycle gas plants is $42/MWh, $29/MWh and $24/MWh, respectively, according to Lazard.

    That's well below coal ($42/MWh), and a few dollars below nuclear power ($29/MWh)." https://en.solarbe.com/home/article/info/catId/49/id/5071.html

    So much for repeated erroneous claims of nuclear being prohibitively expensive. The UAE reactors have a projected lifespan of 60 years.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight




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