Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Back around 2012 I was a software developer working on the NHS website; there was a clause that the Dept. of Health had stipulating that if the traffic for any given browser amounted to - if I recall - 2.something % or more then it required official support. That included IE6 (at the time), which we bemoaned as to who the f*ck could possibly still be using such a bag of sh1t browser in 2012, and in such numbers. To cut a long story short, we were supporting the Dept. of Health users who were all using IE6 because the departments O/S installation image was that long in the tooth ..... They eventually updated to - Win7 at the time and that corrected that little conunndrum.

So, it would not be much of a stretch to imagine that DEFRA - in their infinite state of panic - have resurrected a really old piece of software and ported it sideways, without giving the team resurrecting the software any opportunity to modernise it (I have a former colleague who worked on "Brexit" related software in a gov. dept. and his brief summary of the lie of the land was neither flattering nor confidence inspiring).

This reminds me of Donald Tusk's statement in 2019: "There is a special place in hell for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan of how to carry it out safely."

Shortages didn't materialise as far as I'm aware. But the queues to get goods into the UK have. So the issues aren't "long resolved". It'll increase costs for the UK consumer or reduce choice as importers give up.

Then after all that queing you could be diverted to a checking area on the UK side.

https://twitter.com/MonkdWallydHonq/status/1479127324792610820?t=-7EDiqsi_lUyyMCjDg76fQ&s=19

And if the delays get very bad the head of HMRC has said they'll prioritse flow over compliance.

So shortages should not appear. It's not really a win though.

I'm very happy to see these policies introduced.

The title of that alone, not even mentioning the source, just scream high-quality journalism to me. Here's one from another pro-brexit paper:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/04/time-running-prove-brexit-not-historic-failure/

Remain were much closer to right though

Truss sabre rattling about the Protocol in the Telegraph tonight, but it might just be for ERG consumption, hard to tell.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1479940140202135554

Post removed, more suited to a different thread.

But "Making Brexit work" is an impossible task.  

You can get agreement with the EU on removing some of the UK self imposed problems especially those that can be changed via the 'NIP Joint Committee'. More flexibility in IT system, common SPS rules, and e.g. electronic handling of trade related papers is a possibility, I think. The basic cost of Brexit and trade will, however, not go away. 

But any substantially better deal for the UK (read England and Wales) than the current WA/NIP + TCA will end up with a formal or a de facto requirement for 27 Yes votes in the EU Council and a majority vote in the EU parliament.

This will not happen anytime soon, and will at least require the UK to accept the total EU acquis - trade or no trade. It may well require the UK (England) to reform its internal politics and accept e.g. future EU tax evasion laws and a more global taxation of all.

Many EU members simply won't have 'trouble makers' much closer the the EU. The 'Copenhagen Criteria' for entry to the EU is also going to be strengthen and rewritten into something, that must not only be valid at EU-entry, but must for new members be valid ever after.

The English has lost very much of the public goodwill among ordinary people in more EU countries, and this in itself will be very hard and expensive to reverse. Politicians get their power from the very same ordinary people.

The fact that the EU has not much noted any major costs of Brexit doesn't help any new deal with the UK.

To me it sounds like from another planet to talk about, what English voters can or will - the real decisions will be taken by EU member states in Brussels - and the UK can do little but accept it or continue to live in their increasing misery called Brexit. Next UK application will just have worse conditions for England and Wales.

Lars 

😀

PS! Stop talking about EFTA as a cure. 

The EFTA organisation does not have much relation with the EU. The members of EFTA are member of the EEA, where the EU is the real master or is CH who's 100+ guillotine linked treaties with the EU will not be repeated by the EU (much to slow and expensive to maintain).

What was that definition of insanity? I guess Truss doing the exact thing that led to Frost leaving seems to fall within this category. Her quotes is just a rehash of the same old argument,

'"But let me be clear, I will not sign up to anything which sees the people of Northern Ireland unable to benefit from the same decisions on taxation and spending as the rest of the UK, or which still sees goods moving within our own country being subject to checks.

"My priority is to protect peace and stability in Northern Ireland. I want a negotiated solution but if we have to use legitimate provisions including Article 16, I am willing to do that."'

So we are back where Brexit fell down under May and before Johnson sold NI down the river. I understand the frustration from Sefcovic really, he says it best,

'Last week, Mr Šefčovič warned that "the foundation of the entire deal" brokered between the UK and the EU would be jeopardised if Ms Truss takes the drastic step.

"This is a very distracting element in the discussions. You try to achieve something together and - bam - there's the threat of Article 16 again," he told German newspaper Der Spiegel.

"It touches on the fundamentals of our relationship.

"The Northern Ireland Protocol was the most complicated part of the Brexit negotiations, and it is the foundation of the entire deal. Without the protocol, the whole system will collapse. We must prevent that at any cost."'

On Labour and their plan to make Brexit work, we have to be realistic that there is still a substantial of the electorate that has been groomed to believe that the EU is the enemy and if Labour proposed to rejoin it would cost them votes. They are not in a position with FPTP to go down this route so the next best thing, make it work. It means as much as "Get Brexit Done" but it allows them to be clear without needing to be specific and get bogged down in the details.

It was the details that cost Remain, Labour would do well to stay away from making the same mistakes again.

The journalist Sam McBride had an article recently on the possibility of the DUP engineering a crisis over port checks.

I wonder are the comments from Truss part of a coordinated effort by the ERG and DUP to lay the groundwork for justifying the triggering of Article 16. She will need the ERG types for her own leadership ambitions. Create the problem, and then claim that only you can fix the problem. Hope that the US swallows it.

It's quite stunning how poorly the UK has played it's hand in agreeing a deal with the EU. Trying to engineer concessions now when it's clear they're unable to enforce restrictions on EU goods coming to Britian is incredible. It really is sticking your finger in your pocket to pretend you have a gun.

Very Donald Trump negotiations, bellicose, no notion about facts or details, willing to agree to anything once you think it makes it look like you won. That kind of nonsense won't wash with any serious trading group. The US would make such mincemeat of the UK in a trade agreement, and the Tories would lap it up, bullshit about the special relationship etc etc.

We already know the answer to this one. Yes, he would.

A border poll would never be held though if polling was in and around 50-50 or too close to call. Even Sinn Fein would be alert to the risks of that one (as to lose such a referendum would be a devastating setback for Irish nationalism).