Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Positive new

ICU Will hover around those figures for a couple more weeks beofre dropping gradually hopefully!

Eh that's data from July to November last year. We're talking about the 941 in hospital today which is what is relevant. How many of those are unvaccinated, as you claimed they were a disproportionate number? No going back to July, what's the stats now?

Basically, most medical research uses a branch of statistics called inferential statistics. What you do, you take a small group of people from the big group (a sample who represent the overall group that you want to study). You then study this smaller group and extrapolate to the wider group. If you were to study the effect of vaccine on the transmission rates, you would divide the smaller group into vaccinated and unvaccinated. You would get a mean difference. However, if you were to take another smaller group from the bigger group, you would see a different mean difference due to randomness (sampling variation). You calculate a thing called the 95% confidence interval. This is a range of numbers. If you took 100 small groups from the big group and repeated the study with them, 95/100 would have a mean difference in your quoted range. The purpose of the stat test is to determine what is the likelihood that the observed difference in your study is due to chance. If something is P<0.05, this means that there is <1/20 chance that the observed difference was due to chance. By convention, in medicine this is often used as an acceptable threshold. However, in some cases, they seek P<0.001, meaning that the difference due to chance is <1/1000.

Inferential statistics is used because it is just not financially or logistically possible to collect data from every single member of the big group.

The hard part is to make sure that the little group study actually represents the big group and that the variables (ie known and unknown differences between groups) are accounted for.

Are there any datasets on transmission rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated in omicron? I think that I read somewhere that the risk is reduced?

That news is super! Fingers crossed the trend continues!

I am not a pin-cushion for pharma. That term that you use would suggest a degree of equipoise. We have conclusive evidence that vaccines reduce serious Covid.

If vaccine means me not getting serious covid, then line me up and I will gladly be jabbed until my risk of catching Covid is a lot less than now!

We don't know.

The last hspc report only goes as far as 4th December. The last CSO report goes to 10th December.

Hspc report unvaccinated from 7 November to 4 December:

15% cases

21% hospitalisations

45% icu

16% deaths.

Still higher than percentage of population unvaccinated but had been dropping.

Was expecting updated report last week but has not arrived yet.

What the current stats are for the omicron wave is unknown so far.

Cases over Christmas unlikely to be known until near the end of the month if the new style reports continue the two week release schedule.

Surprise surprise. And covid doesnt suddenly appear in households either. It probably came from freely mixing kids in playgrounds and classrooms, like most other respiratory viruses.

Does anyone still doubt schools were the main driver of this thing all along?

Give it 3 months and you'll need another or be just as much at risk of infection as the rest.

Besides, I thought the goal of the vaccines was to stop serious disease and not infection rates?

Do you have any evidence that the vaccinated are at risk of serious disease from covid? Sounds like an anti-vaxxer talking point from you.

The vaccines work to protect you from serious disease and death - there is very little waning from that.

I fail to understand you? I love the vaccine! I am triple dosed. My point was about the data suggesting boosters reduce transmission

I was responding to somebody who questioned the study I thanked, stating that transmission rates are lower amongst the booster cohort. They told me that in 3 months I will be in the same boat as everybody else.

vaccines are effective at reducing serious Covid AND there is preliminary data to suggest that the transmission rates are lower in the booster than even the doubly vaccinated. Boosters are our best chance, especially now with Covid at large

Because boosters confer ongoing protection against serious illness (I.e. requiring oxygen) AND there is preliminary data (see earlier in thread) that boosters reduce transmission, even compared to those with two doses.

1,000 hospitalisations is a lot of pressure. We are coping. But we need to ensure that it doesn’t get worse.

What is your relative comparator. You are simply looking at the society as a whole.

But you have to compare transmission rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated to know if there is a difference in transmission rates.

Also, given the risk of serious disease in unvaccinated and the pressure that puts our health service under, surely we need to help reduce the risk of unvaccinated catching Covid

You really don’t understand analogies. God help you if you ever have to attend an ethics lecture!

Usually, I would laugh and like your point. But by making me the arse of your jokes, you make me into a figure of ridicule. Therefore, no matter what I say, even if it is valid, you can just dismiss it as nonsense. It is easier to laugh than listen