Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Yes, I know as well a case where Corporate provide rental properties to employees/contractors. And they may fill those apartments. And even they may increase the share in REIT's to attract new employees, and bring more immigration. But it's a big chance that they won't be able to absorb that much of rentals coming online, nor the Council housing, thus the majority of REIT's likely fall to the hands of private tenants.

Who else is paying 2300-2600 on a 2 bed apartment?

Has to be corpo.

Was talking to a few foreign students there before Christmas, 8 of them are renting out a 2 bed apartment and paying €2100 per month in total.

A three bed house in our estate went for rent at €2400, 6 people are sharing the house to pay the rent.

I would say corporations will be in the minority, the rest are just turning into slum landlords to make as much money as possible from rents.

Gains will be eaten up by normal inflation…the pay rises just mean they can borrow more as the LTI is on gross salary. All it means is house prices will continue to rise for the next 6-12 months

yup, globally, private debts are at an all time high in human history, baring in mind, it was ultimately private debts associated with property markets that caused 08!

I recall the biggest concerns regarding the global economy pre-pandemic was about the mountain of corporate debt, in particular junk bonds, that were due to be refinanced over the next couple of years. I assume that none of these issues have gone away.

Reading Marketwatch last month, it seems in the US that a lot of the obvious risks of inflation, China woes etc seem to be priced into the junk bond market, but the unmanaged risks seem to be if Central Banks over-tighten or an unexpected covid shock. Any tightening of global credit markets would hit us hard and swiftly I would have thought.

U.S. junk-bond supply [Source: Deutsche Bank]

you need to remember that the debt is someone investment. Unlike 08 where the banks issues the debt this time around it is in the capital markets where the debt has been bought by investors.

if the debt turns bad investors loose their investment and it doesn’t bring down banks

They may not be bothered by the returns because the investment will get them an Irish passport.

I get the part to buy foreign property as a means to take it away from CCP control but it seems that some are heading for the hills with little or no profit. So I am wondering if the cash is required to stem losses from investments at home.

I cant see emigration being a minus over the next 5 years. When the skys open up in a post covid world (or at least one where we have to just get on and live with it) migration inwards will be huge. I have stated it here the decision to decrease the time for an undocumented foreign national to go from this status to one who can legally work and live here from 8 years to 4 months will have us overloaded our welfare system is way too generous and our left leaning nature means that we are a soft touch. There will be way more people coming in than leaving. Also just had a look on myhome I hadnt been looking at the number of available properties for sale in the country for a while but it is down under 11k now. I thought it had steadied for a while at about the 12/12.5k mark. So even less properties available than this time last year.

There was all kinds of shenanigans going on back per 08 not just the issues of subprime for example you could get a mortgage based on the equity and only the equity in another property so they were giving loans on the back of other loans and that was just one of the completely outlandish lending practices that were going on or 110% mortgages it was madness. There was no one regulating it and it fell apart - Globally. Now fast forward 2022 in Ireland, we have a huge supply issue (this did not exist pre 2008) we also have a ramping up of demand with different events Brexit, then Covid stopping people in their tracks buying then add in vulture funds and the fact that the Irish housing market is been bought into by people all over the globe. The demand for housing in Ireland pre 08 was no where near the levels of what it is today. The subprime scandal that caught out a lot of people the same dynamics do not exist today. Anyone who has looked for a mortgage over the last 2/3 years will tell you the bank are only short of doing a colonoscopy on you and your finances before they give you a penny. People (and to use a phrase from the Anglo lads) have to have some skin in the game. Throw in our lefties where the family home cannot be touched meaning even if the roof caves in these properties are protected and will not flow into the supply side of the equation. It all points towards prices increasing for IMO then next 3/5 years.

I don't see negative migration myself, but what I meant in case the migration stays in the level of pre-Covid, I would expect slowdown in rental price in Dublin in a year or two, due to fairly significant increase in rental supplies in Dublin.

In regards to the number of adds for sale, January is always the lowest month. In February the numbers start to go up, although I don't expect much for this year.

And yet prices are set to hit the heights of that period this year with rents considerably higher.

Public sector are pretty much banging the drum of pay restoration which implies there pay has not reached the heights of the boom.

Shenanigans going on all the time

ok, if you meant on annual levels, you are totally right, and probably will be hitting record lows next week.

And with an immigration, yes, I wouldn't be very surprised myself to see increase in immigration later on this year.