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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Posts: 533 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yeah, but unless there’s an immune block on its ability to infect, there would seem no reason why omicron couldn’t fly along at 70x transmissibility, while Delta would just plod along regardless.

    Viruses don’t reproduce sexually, so it’s not natural selection of traits, by choice/access to more virulent partners, nor is there a shortage of host cells. So, it’s just raw number of infections driving the change and the only blocking factor seems to be human’s developing immunity.

    It looks like we are driving it up an evolutionary pathway that is basically selecting less virulent but more contagious strains.

    I wouldn’t take it for granted though. As you could get a roll of the dice that produces something that gets past immunity and carries virulence forward too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 999 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    It depends what incidental is defined as. If it’s the proportion of people who didn’t present to hospital as a confirmed positive and tested positive subsequently while in hospital, it’s 20-30% of hospital figures;

    “Hospital-acquired infections occur in the latter part of each surge of disease, and in each of the three surges hospital-acquired Infections account for 20-30% of hospitalised cases.”

    From government website from last January (need to scroll to page 42);

    But those people could still become ill and need treatment.

    The better figure to know would be those in hospital needing no treatment or so little treatment it has no bearing on their illness or length of stay.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm still curious about Tony saying 5% in hospital are non infectious. I can only assume he means testing negative?

    But that person stays in the hospital figures until discharged.

    I'd love someone to clarify that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭corkie


    @Octopod

    Omicron is displacing delta science

    Omicron infection also produced immunity against Delta. This means someone who has been infected with delta is largely immune to subsequent delta infection. Therefore delta will soon have no one to infect, therefore will go away. Omicron infection enhances neutralizing immunity against the Delta variant

    ⓘ "At some point something inside me just clicked and I realized that I didn't have to deal with anyone's bullshit ever again."
    » “mundus sine caesaribus” «



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Sure we know he is disguising the truth constantly to make things sound worse, why take any notice of anything he says, isn't that what we do eventually when people aren't honest, boy who cried wolf etc , credibility is gone.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ICU now at 93, up 6.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,750 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,073 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,246 ✭✭✭✭hynesie08




  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    It could be, and I'm not sure if it panned out that it was true, that he had one of those Lidl antigens (GENRUI) that were supposedly giving a lot of false positives? But if not, and still positive antigen, given that they say that some people are infectious for 10 days odd, going out with knowingly positive antigen rather than waiting another day or 2, seems a tad wrong.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,719 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    I don’t understand this either. If you test positive, how do they know if you’re non infectious or not?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    HPSC are noting that the numbers reported today and yesterday are basically the positive swabs, not confirmed cases.

    Still gonna reserve judgement till tomorrow, but ...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭cheezums


    Agree. It serves absolutely no purpose anymore.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    i see ConorRiocht has taken himself off twitter due to some absolutely tool bags on twitter trying to show who he is and where he works!! Oh and look who thinks he’s too positive miss caution olive! Herself and Paddy Cosgrave are a joke! Some serious gowls! God forbid anyone wants to be positive!!




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,740 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    Ive always been against the "let it rip" way of thinking throughout this pandemic.

    And im still of that opinion, however this new variant is an entirely different beast to anything we have seen before.

    It is starting to look to me anyway that the only thing that is going to significantly reduce it spreading from the level it is now is by introducing a lockdown even more severe than anything we have had before, I dont think more restrictions will do too much by themselves. I dont think we will be going down that road.

    So if spread does continue the way it is then there may have to start being some uncomfortable converstaions about infection control measures in hospitals. If we come to the point where the spread of infection is so rife in the community and in hospitals maybe their may need to be an acceptance that spread of infection may become inevitable in some sections of some hospitals, in order to keep and allow other hospital services to continue.

    Now I dont think we are anywhere near that point yet, and hopefully we never will be, but I do wonder are these conversations being had? and are their any plans being put in place for this eventuality? Maybe something like protection zones and covid free zones for certain patients that may be vulnerable or very sick.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,750 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    What an embarrassing attack on him. He posted the HSE data, that's it. Insanity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Ah here,sure if it was possible to have covid free zones in hospitals don't you think they would of had them from the start of the pandemic? There would be no pandemic if that was possible



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭cheezums


    The mass isolations globally that will shut down huge amounts of manufacturing and services sites (including hospitals) is probably the biggest problem right now and a very difficult one. No easy or popular solution to that one I'm afraid.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    The virus has beaten us at every battle thus far. It just happens to be using tricks to beat us that are working in our favour but we refuse to accept them because of the obsession with cases and mitigation.

    The ideal outcome for us is a virus that’s very transmissible but less able to cause severe outcomes (hosp/ICU/death). We appear to have that with omicron. The obsession with case reduction and restrictions needs to stop after 2 years of utter failure. Cases on par with the UK for the last 6 months despite them completely opening up society

    Government need to meet pronto to assess the new world we live in. Hundreds of thousands of people in this country sitting in their bedrooms on the off chance they develop a sore throat. Massive outbreaks in pubs across the country despite the 8pm curfew. Expensive tests required to enter the country despite unmitigated transmission in every village in Ireland.

    There’s one big difference as we enter 2022. The fear factor is gone. Last Christmas there was plenty of people afraid of catching the virus but upon seeing the hundreds of thousands of people with sore throats and headaches this Christmas the public appetite for these restrictions will disappear. There will always be the hardcore nutters but in general this is reaching the end game now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,401 ✭✭✭alias no.9


    Not sure what the ongoing value of mass PCR testing is given the lack of availability of timely tests.

    The benefit of PCR confirmation at a point in time where the person is likely fully recovered seem to be entirely administrative, Covid sick pay, case counting, Digital Covid Cert, etc...

    PCR is probably most useful in screening close contacts amongst healthcare staff, to ensure that healthy staff are not isolating unnecessarily and allowing the maximum availability of staff to meet all healthcare needs. Any surplus PCR capacity should be focussed on ensuring availability of staff for other essential state services.

    To address the sick pay, apply the Covid sick pay in all instances of RTIs with or without PCR for the next month. Adding the cost saving of no PCR to regular sick pay will probably make up a large proportion of the difference.

    Tracking cases can be done on the basis of self reporting of RTIs (will be needed for sick pay) and positive antigen with a random sample brought for PCR to determine the correlation between self reported RTI and PCR positive. Not as exact as the PCR for all regime we have had previously but certainly good enough to track macro trends and a whole lot better than just counting those who are lucky or persistent enough to book a PCR.

    As for the Covid cert, there's a digital dustbin somewhere for that.



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  • Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I imagine there may need to be an indemnity put on admissions to hospital that they can't go after nurses/doctors for claims of "long covid" if they need an acute hospital admission and staff have active covid infection/potential covid infection.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,416 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    As someone has pointed out, a clarifying note that England are bringing the COVID-pass in at local level recently for the first time having only used them for international travel before that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    That’s all he did and put into graphs to show trends etc! It looks to me that we actually have a majority of people that actually want all of this to keep trundling on! A man says things are better then models and gets harassed for MSM and the likes of ISAG, The Architect Orla and Everyone will die olive have a lot of followers! Never mind the cultish WAY NPHET has gone…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,740 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    But that is exactly what hospitals are doing, managing infections by testing patients and segregating them.

    What im talking about is if things get so bad in the future is maybe having an acceptance of their being infection throughout the hospital and then trying to protect the most vulnerable patients in hospital and putting the resources into that. I dont think we are anywhere near that point yet though.



  • Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,149 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    A family member from the US has tested positive on a pre flight antigen test to return to where they live in the US so a bit of a sour end to an otherwise alright Christmas



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,939 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    "Let people die to stop people dying."

    Perfectly consistent with the Irish mindset.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,416 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The interesting metric to look at is what the overall increase in hospital capacity was, if a hospital has been at 200 patients all month and then that jumps to 300 (with say, 150 COVID patients) that would imply that there are 100 excess patients being admitted above normal which are probably "for COVID" related.

    Similar with London, there was about 2000 patients over Christmas and that jumped to 3000, if the normal post Christmas jump is 10%, then 800 are likely to be excess and COVID related (and Christmas and holidays may be masking a lot of the true figures anyway, meaning it'll be January before accurate readings are given).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It may or may not and winning the lottery nobody has won for months is easier than predicting future hospital numbers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,598 ✭✭✭crossman47


    Just cop on. You can disagree with Holohan but to accuse him of lying is reprehensible. I'd be as certain as I can be that he presents data in a professional manner. In the UK they have given their CMO a knighthood. Just saying!



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