Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

’And its citizens’ is probably the most important part of your post.

We did stand up. When there were real risks we bought into the restrictions. We saw the benefits of vaccinations and got vaccines in our droves without the same levels of coercion used elsewhere.

Unfortunately, NPHET had a tendency to talk down to the citizens and not level with us at times. The misuse of data continues. We are not idiots. This is one of my biggest disappointments.

Agreed. Clear honest and open communication. Then the citizenry have an informed understanding of why decisions are being made.

Absolutely. There will be a natural lull over the next 4 weeks. Hospitality is quieter and people are less inclined to want visitors.

Are you saying our hospitals are less full than the UK? Because it's not just routine things like a hip replacement that can cause an overnight stay in hospital. Or are people needing hip replacements more likely to test positive?

So the big discharge numbers did come in alright. 87 discharges is a huge number. But they're being overridden by higher admissions numbers.

Doing some rough comparisons here to try and see why our admissions appear to be so high. Comparing with the UK, there was a 5-6 day lag between their surge and the hospital numbers going up. Us too. And we're about 6-7 days behind the UK in our surge.

From the start of their hospital surge (~17th December) to 24th December, their hospital admissions jumped by about 33%.

From the start of our hospital surge (~24th December) to 31st (today), our hospital admissions jumped by about 66%. Twice as much.

Let's drag in Denmark here to see what's happening. Uh-oh. Their surge started either 5th December or 20th. Either way, their hospital numbers have gone nowhere. Slight linear increase, no surge.

Suggests to me that the counting of hospital admissions is not uniform across countries, which makes this even more fraught.

Going back to the UK -v- Ireland, one thing is that our case surge is steeper than theirs. Which means we may peak quicker, but would also explain why hospital numbers have risen faster.

It may also be a cultural issue (which would also explain Denmark's numbers): We, and to a lesser extent the UK, have a population cohort who use the A&E as a primary care centre rather than the GP. They have literally no idea how to manage an illness and so run off to get advice from professionals for the most benign of conditions.

This has been exacerbated in recent times by GPs refusing to see patients who don't have a PCR test.

So, if you're sick, you can't get a PCR test for love nor money, your GP won't talk to you, what do you do? Most people will do an antigen and stay at home. But some people will take themselves (or their child) off to the A&E, so they can be told by a doctor or nurse what to do.

Pure spitballing, but certainly there's something "off" about our hospital numbers. Some reason why they're unnecessarily high. The ICU numbers will tell the full story. Neither the UK or Denmark have seen an appreciable increase since the start of their surges. So we shouldn't either. And if we don't, then the hospital numbers are unimportant.

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Going by the numbers, this weekend will herald some amount of pearl-clutching. The discharges have so far been suppressing the hospital numbers a bit, but there'll be very few discharges done Saturday, Sunday or Monday. Come Tuesday morning we will have (probably well) over 1,000 patients in hospital, and with schools due to open the next day, I forsee considerable panic from the usual merchants.

Like I say, ICU is the only one that really matters now. If that sees no real change, then our hospital system will cope.

And then people will say the ICU cases don't matter either - since they're incidental, old, overweight, unvaccinated, have underlying conditions, or are unboosted..

Just reinforcing the poster’s point with that juvenile response.

I got a PCR test yesterday as a close contact (and had a positive antigen test). Today with the rule change I wouldn't. However when filling out application for illness benefit while I self isolate I was required to send a screen shot of the text from the HSE as proof. What proof will under 40s have now? And how are we supposed to do contact tracing if they aren't getting PCRs?

This along with reducing the time to isolate in the middle of the highest case numbers seems to be very skewed towards helping businesses stay open and screw the risk to people's health.

Anecdotally, certain doom merchants on twitter, once they have tested positive for Covid seem to be presenting at hospitals only to be sent home when the doctors and nurses realised they were overreacting.

I wonder how many presenting are in this case ?

There may also be other factors at play here. Someone (it may have been GG) mentioned that some patients will be discharged home for Xmas and then re-admitted again on the 27th. As a matter of course.

So if someone has been sent home, picks up covid at home, arrives back in hospital and tests positive...oops.

Looking at some of the hospital data, there may be evidence of this.

Taking the children's hospitals in isolation, on Xmas Day (evening) there was 1 child in hospital with covid. The following evening (26th), that number is up to 5. The next day, 8. By the 28th, there are 13 children in hospital with covid.

If that's how fast it's causing child admissions, that's fvcking alarming. But then it stops. Over the next two days there are 12 and 14 children in hospital with covid.

That can only really be explained by children being re-admitted to hospital after going home for Xmas, and coming in with covid. There is no way actual hospital admissions in children jumped 1300% in 4 days.

So it's likely the same phenomenon has happened with the adult hospitals too.

100%.

2 great posts there Seamus.

Hospital numbers can be ignored.

ICU is the only show in town

Sounds like most January's tbh.

And our frustrations at times.