Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

How?

Well, to put it another way, how is it sustainable for the State to support 1/3 of all leases, putting a floor of at least 1250 pm on rents in Dublin, but not expect salaries to continue to go up? Effectively, since 2015/2016, the average worker who is renting is worse off today than they were back then.

And as I said watch the big companies pause further growth in the country and make announcements post-covid restrictions (whenever that time finally happens) that actually staff can relocate to other EU countries where they have an office.

Populism is the last nail that will hammer the coffin shut.

That's how it ends, slowly the momentum of economic growth ends and then suddenly its flat.

on tapering topic, FED said they are planning 3 hikes next year. In sept they were saying there wont be any till 2023. Clearly they are concerned. I remember there were a number of smooth brain operators arguing we will never see rates go up coz people are juiced up on leverage.. ask your parents what rates they were paying on their mortgage.

Wallstreet saying they are banking on non aggressive hikes.. but the market have been sliding downhill for the past two months. Usually they are a good counter indicator.

Do you mean that Main Street banks will increase IR's on any new loans now? I have heard this said before I was just wondering how it manifested itself.

so you are saying supply will increase because of an increase in emigration once covid ends.

The fed is buying less government bonds and mortgage backed securities. This means the supply available increases. If you Assume demand stays the same then the price will fall.

As yields (rates) move inversely to price the yield (interest rate) on risk free bonds increases and results in all other rates repricing according. (including retail bank rates)

It has always been like that and still the number of rentals available is at an all time low compared to prior periods.

But this is Ireland and it will never work like that. Any "savings" disappear into other charges. I would see "standing charges" increase or carbon tax increase etc. We don't do incentives good.

Look at low carbon vehicles and reduced car tax. People bought into this and low and behold the "lower car tax" increased.

We aren't fair, those who shout the loudest normally get better treatment than those who don't, and those who don't just don't have the time or energy to complain because we are busy working, commuting and everything else that goes with day to day working and personal life.

Do these large landlord publish their occupancy rate somewhere? I mean if it always been like then clearly the total is incorrect and we can not say that the number is at all time low ?

how can you determine a trend unless you account/estimate for hidden variables?

The survey you posted put the cost differential between 2 and 17% with the average at 8%

Ive seen another survey that puts it between - 4 and 15%

The survey from reading it covered all home types including those glass boxes you see on room to improve. For the purpose of the relatively small houses we build in Ireland and the need for 1 and 2 bed units the cost would be closer to the lower end of that scale.

One gets the impression from those surveys that costs come down as more adopt the technology. This may offset the inflation and may push construction to less labour intensive practices

Wrong about what with respect to salaries?

I am saying that salaries would need to go up to justify the current housing situation but the overall cost of living must stay down at the same time (this obviously won't happen). I have said that those renting and working are ending up worse off financially each year since 2015/16 due to the rise in housing costs and general cost of living while salaries are not climbing as swiftly.

We are going to see salaries increase, and it looks like it is already starting to happen (anecdotal observation), but we won't have a clear picture until into next year as people typically have annual salary reviews that won't have been undertaken as of yet. This will fuel more inflation into next year in housing and cost of living, undoubtedly. At the same time, the State can only justify the current level of public spending (which of course is contributing to fuelling demand for housing) because of the pandemic. But the pandemic will end and there is nothing to replace the State at the same level. That's where it all cools down.

1 why would there be no revenue? I recall back in the early 00's families paying more in rent on a council house than what it would cost to rent a better private house in a percieved better area. Security of tenure being far more valuable to them

Revenue positive might be a stretch, but the situation would be markedly better than forking out billions to foreign investors every year. With social affordable the money stays in our economy to be recycled

2. Do you think the private sector would reduce output pro rata if the state ramped up building their own supply. Initially I suspect the private sector would ramp up their output so that they could get theirs built and sold before the states supply comes on stream.

State and private developers would be serving separate markets

We are pulling workers from many different countries for many different sectors. We are not the first country in the world to suffer a lack of required skills. There are tried and testedsolutions

We are hopeless at teaching foreign language yet jobs requiring such skills are created all the time

Many countries in Europe are struggling and would have spare capacity we could tap into

There are also more methods and materials used to build housing that require less labour

1. Rents are already high, are you saying council houses will be able to prop-up even more? What's the point than, to get more from middle class that pay high rents already. Do you have any link showing that families paid more for council housing, than for private? It's abit difficult to believe, although I was not living here in Ireland back than, so have no idea about council rental back than.
2. Private builders are chasing the profits, and who provides better conditions. If public sector will provide better profits/conditions they would move to public sector projects. "State and private developers would be serving separate markets" - this will not happen, and if it would start quickly to move that way further from Market economy, I would expect a total disaster.

what was the reason for 10,000 construction workers on PUP payments in September?

Did they have covid or were they a close contact or was it that there work needed to be undertaken indoors where they were unable to social distance?

can’t help to think that there was a % of pup recipients that were claiming PUP at the same time as working for cash. No idea how big an issue this was but it did result in Garda setting up check points to target this fraud.