The Omicron variant

Spiderman0081 · 12-12-2021 01:38AM

What if this variant is actually the beginning of the end of the pandemic? Experts are saying this variation arrived because of the high percentage of unvaccinated in one area. Would we have to thank the unvaccinated, for the eventual end of the pandemic?

Polar101 · 12-12-2021 04:17AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118307913#Comment_118307913

Happy to award each of those geniuses a medal, if it is the end of the pandemic.

Not too sure what's so great about Omicron, though.

Lumen · 12-12-2021 08:23AM

Surely the real question is what protection Omicron infection gives against Delta?

If Omicron infection does not protect against Delta, we may get continuing Delta infection and hospitalisation after the Omicron wave is done (end of Jan?).

If Omicron infection does protect against Delta reinfection, we're done provided that no further variants emerge with evasion from that but worse CHR.

It doesn't matter whether Omicron infection protects against Omicron reinfection if CHR is low.

is_that_so · 12-12-2021 09:44AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308178#Comment_118308178

Even so the reaction to Omicron is beginning to look like it may have been extraordinarily OTT. If it does have an effect they are still going to have a very hard time convincing people of the risk of future variants unless people are falling over dead from it in numbers.

Leftwaffe · 12-12-2021 09:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308243#Comment_118308243

Judging from everything I’ve read it’s essentially a two day cold. If even that. Tiredness for a day or two. People won’t even know they had it. Gonna sweep through everyone and hopefully provide a good blanket of immunity on top of what’s already there.

Lumen · 12-12-2021 09:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308243#Comment_118308243

That's quite ironic. You're jumping the gun in an accusation of gun-jumping.

Remember that the early response to COVID was hobbled (particularly in the UK, which had knock on effects for us) by a couple of damp squib pandemic near-misses previously.

12-12-2021 10:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308257#Comment_118308257

It's been three weeks since it was first reported and we can assume it was around for a while before that. There haven't been any deaths yet and its symptoms are different. Surely it is plausible that its symptoms simply don't result in death often if ever.

The UK saying it could result in 75k deaths before even one is reported anywhere in the world is way OOT and jumping the gun. Maybe in the next week, loads of people with Omicron will start dying, and then some statistics can be built up, but 75k is just a random number at this point in time based on Delta's mortality rate I believe, and there is no suggestion it is as deadly as Delta so far.

In 2019, there was no active global pandemic. This is extremely strong proof that in the entire history of homo sapiens, every single pandemic has mutated to a mild form and for all intents and purposes, has disappeared. You can't really get any stronger proof. In 200,000 years, no disease has become an unstoppable pandemic that has never gone away. Far too many people refuse to accept that.

is_that_so · 12-12-2021 10:07AM

I didn't claim it was true and I am responding to data which is pointing that way more and more, a good thing. I am happy to admit the answer is still unclear. Oh I think the reaction has been absolutely OTT to something whose risk is effectively unknown. More monitoring of travel from those areas is fine, PCR etc. and you might just about tolerate MHQs but a reset back to massive case obsessions, completely ludicrous projections and a raft of restrictions worldwide suggest we have learnt nothing about living with this. I genuinely hope it's a damp squib, at worst it may cause some issues but for now this alarm is right up there with NPHET pessimistic scenarios.

Lumen · 12-12-2021 10:28AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308276#Comment_118308276

But where are these Omicron restrictions, here in Ireland, allegedly the most overactive and lockdown-hungry country in the world?

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-restrictions-to-tackle-omicron-not-being-envisaged-at-the-moment-1226429.html

is_that_so · 12-12-2021 11:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308319#Comment_118308319

Well, we were never fully out of restrictions anyway and while Martin continues not ruling things out there is always a risk we can get more of them. Once again hospitality has taken a very big hit on this, a cost to them and the exchequer. Our only new one is possibly one of the stupidest that has been proposed and the old rejigged ones have never of much use either. Take a look across the EU and at the UK, responses are purely based on Omicron case numbers only, not outcomes.

Mango321 · 12-12-2021 11:22AM

Criticism of the recent hot takes from Balloux and others by South African professor.

(BTW Pieter Streicher is MD of spam messaging company BulkSMS)

https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1469954015932915718

El_Duderino 09 · 12-12-2021 11:32AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118306739#Comment_118306739

It doesn't have to be more deadly if its more transmissible. What do you think will happen to hospitalisations if the virus is 50% more transmissable and 20% less deadly?

cheezums · 12-12-2021 11:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308243#Comment_118308243

This is exactly what I said here last week and several posters here jumped on me.

deholleboom · 12-12-2021 12:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118306290#Comment_118306290

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59627188

ALARM!!! PEOPLE IN HOSPITAL WITH OMICRON..

From our trusty BBC. IT IS TRUE!!! Actual people in hospital with Omicron. How many? What condition? Comorbidities? Have they been in hospital before due to health conditions? Did they come to hospital because of Omicron? Symptoms? How long did they stay in hospital?

These are the kind of questions a proper journalist would ask. Instead, after reporting that there are 'people' in Hospital with Omicron they go on about what possible dire things are waiting for us.

And then you wonder why people are no longer seeing the BBC as a trustworthy news organisation...

Mango321 · 12-12-2021 12:52PM

The 'people in hospital' story is to correct the record of the 'no people in hospital' story that was spread on the basis of Desmond Swayne's question to Sajid Javid.

Rebelbrowser · 12-12-2021 01:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118307856#Comment_118307856

"Captain Blackadder, we've survived the Great War 1914 to 1917. Hurra!"

Seriously though SA figure v promising , 7 day trend is flat now - not exactly exponential.

TonyMaloney · 12-12-2021 02:42PM

I'm cautiously optimistic about SA, but their NICD has admitted that they're having some reporting issues.

If it is really leveling off then it's hard to understand, but undoubtedly very positive. Perhaps there's some sort of immunity holding up to it after all.

TonyMaloney · 12-12-2021 02:44PM

Here's the short thread from the NICD on reporting delays

https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469405508679483395?t=O-PU9fK4mdbpaBcZVma3TQ&s=19

TonyMaloney · 12-12-2021 02:45PM

Can someone please tell

https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469405508679483395?t=O-PU9fK4mdbpaBcZVma3TQ&s=19

I've finally sussed how to post a tweet

corkie · 12-12-2021 03:48PM

https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470038788198080520

UK +1239 additional confirmed cases of the #Omicron ~ Total 3137.

Of which NI +5 now 10 in total.

BNONews has moved the tracker to partner site here.

total (worldwide)7,805 (~78,398)

For anyone looking for figures across EU check '@ECDC_Outbreaks'.

https://twitter.com/ECDC_Outbreaks/status/1470099210548748292

day old figures on site:-

Epidemiological update: Omicron variant of concern (VOC) – data as of 12 December 2021 (12:00)

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1470044127316385793

Ireland +4 Now 10 Confirmed.

Over hyped quote from BBC below?

"This is a big wave coming straight at us - if we see even half the severity that we saw with Delta then we are facing a very large number of hospitalisations and potential deaths," ~ Dr Susan Hopkins (BBC)

Lex Luthor · 12-12-2021 06:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118237578#Comment_118237578

none of your pity is required and dont hold your breath

Lex Luthor · 12-12-2021 06:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118237330#Comment_118237330

as they have been so effective to stop the spread of the disease

imagine a vaccine that is supposed to protect the people who took it from COVID but not protect them from the unvaccinated

corkie · 12-12-2021 06:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118310687#Comment_118310687

In standard PCR tests, Omicron has what's known as an "S-gene dropout" (which Delta hasn't, in most cases) and that gives a clue that it could be the new variant.

But not all "S-gene dropouts" will necessarily be Omicron - full genomic sequencing is needed to be sure. ~~ Link

But

Scientists say they have identified a “stealth” version of Omicron that cannot be distinguished from other variants using the PCR tests that public health officials deploy to gain a quick picture of its spread around the world.

But Denmark reportedly has a special test that can, that they are confirming tests without GS.

The UK Covid alert level has been raised following a rapid increase in Omicron cases being recorded.

The country's four chief medical officers and NHS England's national medical director have recommended to ministers that the UK go up to Level 4 from Level 3.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59629916

astrofool · 12-12-2021 06:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118310673#Comment_118310673

It's more trying to stop the unvaccinated getting infected so they don't get hospitalised (12x greater risk on average).

So you either get protected by a vaccine or get protected by not being able to go certain places.

igCorcaigh · 12-12-2021 06:45PM

This has to be the most uncertain and suspenseful time of this pandemic saga so far. The transmissibility of Omicron is becoming clearer: a doubling time of 2 or 3 days.

The potential of it to cause significant illness could be anywhere between a mild cold up to Delta levels. The truth perhaps might be on the lower on the scale, I really hope it is, because this thing is going to take off big time. In winter. Over Christmas.

ceadaoin. · 12-12-2021 06:53PM

There is no evidence that unvaccinated people are faring any worse with this variant though. The confirmed unvaccinated case that went to Hong Kong had mild symptoms. According to a Botswanan health Minister, all the unvaccinated people there are asymptomatic (granted, it's not many people so may just be a coincidence). The vast majority of confirmed cases so far are fully vaxxed or boostered. I know some on here would love to see the unvaccinated punished with a horrible killer variant but it doesn't seem to be this one.

https://www.mmegi.bw/news/omicron-cases-show-mild-or-no-symptoms-lelatisitswe/news

brickster69 · 12-12-2021 07:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118310833#Comment_118310833

Everyone is learning a lot quickly but still time is needed to see how serious it is for everyone. That is the main thing, and not a lot anyone can do about it apart from speculate on that.

Wolf359f · 12-12-2021 07:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118310873#Comment_118310873

I think a sample size of 16 people is too small.

We should see decent data from the UK and Denmark with how serious or mild it is.

The fact bad news travels faster than good news, bodes well for it being milder. If hospitals were seeing a massive surge of seriously ill patients, we'd have heard or will very soon.

igCorcaigh · 12-12-2021 07:04PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118310920#Comment_118310920

True. The speed at which this is transmitting means any action we take now is too late, or irrelevant in the near term. It's a gamble, even though the odds look fairly good.

It takes big numbers to discern small, but perhaps significant, trends. Fingers crossed.

Micky 32 · 12-12-2021 07:11PM

More soundbites, fingers crossed there’s something to this :

https://twitter.com/mihaivioreanu/status/1470045420265127939?s=21

The Omicron variant

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