Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

ArmaniJeanss · 09-12-2021 3:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118295692#Comment_118295692

The 'enforcement' or lack of it is only part of the problem really. It's unlikely that anyone will be stopped for the reasons you suggest.

What about issues which go beyond merely getting the past the border. For example I'm wondering would it nullify your health insurance if you had an accident/incident in a country which, strictly speaking, you hadn't entered legally? Has it become the fault of your own lawbreaking recklessness?

[Deleted User] · 09-12-2021 3:09pm

It wouldn't just be Irish / EU / non-EU people showing ID. And with the UK talking about taking away passports or driving licenses from people who do drugs, you could find yourself being a British citizen with no means to easily prove you're legally in your own country.

Wikidy · 09-12-2021 3:24pm

There will always be edge cases unfortunately. Eg daytripper stopped on a bus. Not to mention most buses going to Donegal go through NI.

I'd imagine that an unintended consequence would be less non-eu tourists visiting NI especially from US. I'd imagine most would fly in to Dublin. Any bureaucracy will lead to hesitancy, just easier to head south/west instead of North.

Capt'n Midnight · 09-12-2021 6:03pm

The UK replaced the Erasmus scheme with the Turing student exchange programme.

This has now been outsourced to Capita who will be getting £6.9m to run scheme. My expectation based on Capita's previous attempts is that they will break it badly ruining chances for UK students to study abroad.

Strazdas · 10-12-2021 12:32am

Some people making the interesting point today that Johnson being exposed as an obvious pathological liar to the British public is not necessarily good news for Brexit. If he's lying through his teeth now, did he lie to them about Brexit in 2016? We here on the forum already know the answer, but the penny may be starting to drop cross channel.

Peregrinus · 10-12-2021 2:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118298867#Comment_118298867

There can't be many people in the UK who aren't already aware that Johnson is a liar. He was famously a liar long before he ever became party leader and PM. Arguably, he was chosen as party leader precisely because he is a liar — he has the knack of telling people the lies they want to hear and being forgiven for it. The Tory party saw this as something that might be useful in squaring the Brexit circle (which it was).

But his knack may have failed him on this occasion.

murphaph · 10-12-2021 8:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118295692#Comment_118295692

When I take a day trip to NI with my Irish son and German wife I will just tell the wife to say she's Irish if anyone asks. We're not filling out any forms.

pixelburp · 10-12-2021 8:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118296977#Comment_118296977

Wouldn't it still require agreement with foreign institutions to be involved with this reciprocal setup? Much like those temporary visas offered to drivers to work Xmas, one wonders what appeal the UK might have to continental students at this point (unless I'm misunderstanding the scheme). I can't imagine (say) German reporting of brexit has been so flattering the average college student might want to visit a country experiencing a self-caused brain drain

Seth Brundle · 10-12-2021 8:52am

UK economy flatlined in October, manufacturing badly affected by supply chain issues. More bad news for Johnson...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/uk-economy-almost-flat-lined-in-october-new-figures-show-1.4751912

Peregrinus · 10-12-2021 8:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299248#Comment_118299248

Yes, obviously the Turing Scheme will require buy-in from educational institutions in other countries.

But this need not be reciprocal. the UK government will provide up to £100m/year to enable students at UK universities to study or do work placements abroad, at or under the supervision of foreign universities. The carrot for the foreign universities is the £100m; they get paid to take the UK students. If the interaction with UK universities fosters relationships that facilitate traffic the other way, and if the foreign students are keen to study in the UK, and if somebody is willing to pay the UK universities for that, great, but that's not essential to the scheme.

Erasmus worked differently; the host universities received little or no money for hosting students. The carrot for them in return for hosting students was that their students could in turn go to other universities - not necessarily the same universities as were sending students - for relatively little money.

The design of the Erasmus scheme represented a net drain on UK educational finances. The UK has many excellent universities, and lots of students from other countries were interested in studying in the UK partly because of the quality of the universities and partly because they already spoke English, and so living and studying in the UK was easier for them than in some third country whose language they did not speak. But UK university students were (relatively speaking) a parochial and monoglot lot; they were less interested in studying in abroad and they had a marked preference for English-speaking host countries, of whom not many participate in Erasmus. The upshot was the about twice as many foreign students came to the UK under Erasmus (largely at the UK's expense) as UK students went abroad (largely at the expense of other governments). Turing is designed not to replicate this feature of Erasmus; UK will pay for UK students who go abroad, rather than for foreign students who come to the UK.

The UK universities are not keen, obviously, because (a) there's no money in this for them and (b) they miss out on the enriching experience of having foreign students in the mix.

Seth Brundle · 10-12-2021 10:23am

The UK's Parliamentary Science and Technology Commitee discuss the loss of the Galileo project to UK scientists (the UK pre-Brexit opposed opening Galileo up to third countries and now themselves is one so...).

https://twitter.com/Scientists4EU/status/1469089249932763152

Does that these questons are being asked possibly shows that they were not considered by the SCT before Brexit (like so many other things)?

Seth Brundle · 10-12-2021 10:47am

I also noticed that the Express has an article titled "UK trade has shrunk since Brexit while EU thrives - data". The article starts as follows...

BREXIT, according to its backers, was meant to create endless opportunities. So far, however, the UK has failed to make the vote profitable, with the prospect of "global Britain" quickly fading according to recent data.

...and continues...

Both [the UK and the EU] suffered losses when the pandemic hit in 2020, but only one has recovered.

The UK has not seen its trade bounce back since the official exit date of January 2021.

...

Trade agreements negotiated by Ms Truss have done little to boost the UK's imports and exports, with experts criticising the amount they will prospectively bring in.

She has so far secured arrangements with Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

Altogether, they will barely contribute to UK GDP, between zero and 0.16 percent respectively.

For a newspaper that is so anti-EU and pro-Brexit, this indicates a massive shift. The Express famous for its vitriolic headlines regarding Merkel, the EU and the Irish must really be hurting to have published the above.

(I won't link to the article itself but it is currently the lead article on their homepage)

pixelburp · 10-12-2021 10:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299609#Comment_118299609

That's quite an astonishing shift in language from a paper who, as you say, would frame everything with an aggressive tone in favour of Brexit. Long way to go before it starts openly criticising brexit as a concept, but you never know I suppose....

Leroy42 · 10-12-2021 11:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299505#Comment_118299505

I am sure they did consider it, just as they considered trade. However, the overriding view, and that was touched on with the last question, was that the EU needed the UK more than it needed them and the EU would simply fall apart with the UK and as such the EU would do whatever it could to keep the UK close.

When the UK talked about a close relationship, they never meant from their side, they meant from the EU. My feeling throughout, including Camerons attempt to get special treatment, is that the UK always felt that at some stage the EU would give in and accept that primacy of the UK. The German car manufacturers for example.

So there was never a need to work out a what if scenario such as Galileo, as it was always assumed that it would never come to pass.

If now, the UK haven't really put forward a plan of how to deal with post Brexit trade. There are no long terms plans in place, no ideas on how to attract the best talent from abroad, how they will sell themselves to internaational investors etc. Just a belief that everything will work out, because Britain!

timetogo1 · 10-12-2021 11:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299660#Comment_118299660

I got the impression from the last question that the guy was expecting the professor to say yeah UK is the best, they will suffer. His reply was great though. Yes there is an impact on the EU, they have the skills but the change will increase the cost and time. Kind of sums up Brexit in a nutshell.

[Deleted User] · 10-12-2021 11:13am

I sometimes wonder if the Express throws in one or two sensible articles a couple of times a year so that they can point to them if anyone raises their otherwise utterly one sided coverage.

ancapailldorcha · 10-12-2021 11:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299711#Comment_118299711

I think people tend to assume that the press and the Tory party are one and the same. While they're both almost identically aligned, they're not completely identical. The press ultimately exists to sell itself. If stories about the UK lagging behind the EU multiply, people will just switch paper if the Express isn't covering it.

It's still a serious shift though.

cml387 · 10-12-2021 12:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299848#Comment_118299848

It's hard to know what newspaper a typical Express reader would change to!

It is a remarkable article, however I would read it more as a message to the government for more up socks pulling to go out and sell "Global Britain".

I doubt the Express has changed its mind on the concept of Brexit.

McGiver · 10-12-2021 12:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299505#Comment_118299505

In the words of the now Gove classic:

"I think the people of this country have had enough of experts"

ancapailldorcha · 10-12-2021 12:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299946#Comment_118299946

On the concept, certainly not but they'll not wait one second to screw the Tory party over if it means good headlines and sales.

cml387 · 10-12-2021 12:24pm

The right leaning papers would never abandon the Tory party (with the notable exception of The Sun who backed Tony Blair in 97, but rapidly returned to the fold thereafter).

What they would do is turn on the leader, and only then if he/she is an electoral liability.

ancapailldorcha · 10-12-2021 12:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300089#Comment_118300089

In this particular incarnation of the party, they are one and the same. The closest thing there are to principled Tories are those who cowardly abstained in controversial votes. It's like a feudal court where positions are handed out based on loyalty and little, if anything else.

storker · 10-12-2021 12:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299636#Comment_118299636

They've probably decided that Boris is now too much of an embarrassment (even for them) and are sharpening knives, and Brexit looks like the best stone too whet them on. But after Boris has been (metaphorically) chucked in the Thames with it around his neck, I wouldn't be surprised if they revert to cheerleading Global Britain and Taking Back Control and chuck Brexit's economic failure down the memory-hole.

storker · 10-12-2021 12:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299660#Comment_118299660

@Leroy42 "So there was never a need to work out a what if scenario such as Galileo, as it was always assumed that it would never come to pass."

And it might not have been if the UK-not-in-EU-but-in-EU-wonderland had come to pass, which is what was being sold pre-referendum. Then there was the handbrake turn in the direction of a hard Brexit and it was too late to discuss the new set of issues it presented. Unless of course there had been another public vote on it but they couldn't countenance that because "democracy".

KildareP · 10-12-2021 1:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300154#Comment_118300154

Whoever replaces Johnson won't be able to counteract reality, though. Who'd want to take over the office of PM right now?

Johnson's ability, thus far, is being able to give the impression he was "Getting Brexit Done" when he was doing anything but. Throw GB-NI paperwork in the bin, he says assuredly, as he signs into law the very systems underpinning the need for said paperwork.

The fact he wasn't "Getting Brexit Done" is now starting to catch up, and fast.

And blaming the big bad EU for disregarding Global Britain would have worked if it wasn't for the fact he and his wider party has been caught blatantly disregarding the very rules and regulations they themselves were bound to abide by. Can't blame the EU for that.

What can a new leader do differently, if not admit Brexit has not worked out well for the UK and the party must clean up its act?

Their first achievement would be to likely cause an irreversible split through the very centre of the Conservative party as they'll have to swing one way or another to carve a way forward.

Johnson was widely thought to have taken the shortest premiership in history title. Whoever takes over now will be doing so at a time when the Conservative party is damaged, a lot of the EU trade exemptions are about to expire and the threat of Art 16 and an ensuing trade war becomes every closer, and Covid looks dead set to take off again.

That's one hell of a hill you could very quickly find yourself dead on as the new PM...

Capt'n Midnight · 10-12-2021 1:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118299248#Comment_118299248

It's to fund UK students abroad. This means dealing with each country's individual rules and regulations, lots and lots of different new processes.

But it's being done by a outsourcer that has spectacularly failed to deliver on hiring and training people for the armed forces, following well defined processes that go back hundreds of years. They got £2.3Bn for that.

Now they're only getting £6.9m for to look after the students.

Leroy42 · 10-12-2021 1:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300206#Comment_118300206

I think the move to had Brexit was actually just a doubling down on the dream. If by leaving gracefully we could get EU to agree to X, imagine if we threatened to simply walk out? Imagine if we refused to pay the outstanding finance obligations, or put barriers on trade?

Surely the EU would totally cave and make us not only equal partners, as in 27/1, but actually just let us make all the decisions.

"easiest trade deal in history", the first meeting would be in Berlin not Brussels. I still believe that throughout the entire process they simply assumed that Ireland would be thrown under the bus. There was no way the EU would risk trade with the UK over Ireland.

It is not that they didn't have the time to carry out risk assessments, they simply never thought it was even a possibility

Even now, after signing the deal, Frost is making threats and demands as if somehow they have any actual control. 'We will trigger Art 16' is a line trotted out frequently. And everytime they do, they seem to expect the EU is fall to its knees and beg for the UK to stay.

Not that it could ever have happened, but really all the Brexiteers really wanted is for the EU to beg the UK to stay. To make them in charge, to accept that the uk really was the leader and the only natural country to lead Europe. And they are still waiting for that moment. It was because Cameron was too weak. Then TM was a Remoaner at heart. Not Johnson is being scuttled by an EU seeking revenge.

It was Donald Tusk being mean. It was Varadkar being a leftie, it is now VdL.

If only all of these problems could be sorted, then, then, EU would finally see the only real future lies with begging UK to please offer the EU some hope and to lead them forward.

[Deleted User] · 10-12-2021 2:16pm

Honestly, I don't think this will be resolved. They're not going to be rejoining the EU. I think associate membership is unpalatable for them and they won't take it. They look like they're going to make a total mess of international trade - I mean, they're already threatening a trade war with the US : https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59597310

So, I really think you're looking at a declining UK that will be too stubborn to change and the next general election is potentially as far away as 2024, so there's plenty of time for a lot of damage.

Strazdas · 10-12-2021 2:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300727#Comment_118300727

Indeed, it's hard to see how the 'regime' can change tack, even under a new leader. It's completely dominated by Brexiteers / right wing English nationalists (Chris Patten made this point yesterday in an interview, saying it's not a Conservative Party he recognises).

yagan · 10-12-2021 3:05pm

Anyone I've seen sporting a copy of the Express in England looked bewildered.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Comments