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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,985 ✭✭✭Russman


    I'm not being argumentative, I'm genuinely curious here, when you say living with COVID, do you mean ignoring COVID or accepting that some things about how we live our lives will be a bit different than they were before ? Like adapting our lives to live with COVID until it becomes endemic in the background.

    The plan was vaccines, nobody knew quite how effective or not they would be in real life. I don't know what the plan is now. Presumably they're hoping with the apparently much increased protection from boosters, the plan is now a 3 dose vaccine regimen. Who knows.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,295 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    OK, I'm probably being a bit thick, but you're saying that teachers are out because members of their families have tested positive, and therefore fall under the "Household close contact who is fully vaccinated must restrict movements for 5 days" rule, which is new?

    And you're then suggesting that these household members somehow got it indirectly due to spread in primary schools, which masking would reduce?

    It seems a bit far fetched.

    I mean, I don't want to be assuming bad behaviour on the part of teachers or their families, but is it not more likely that they're out because they (or their own household members) caught it from their own (adult) social contacts, or their kids picked it up from social contact out of school?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Well they do, and it would be great if they did it more and better therapeutics are becoming available soon. But what's your plan from this point forward? We should have opened sooner, but didn't, 5th December, hospitals near capacity and a more infectious variant coming (that may be milder but unknown right now, also may decrease vaccine efficacy), what's the next step? If it's open up, what do we do with those needing hospital care, if it's more restrictions, on what and why. If it's "everyone should be healthier", great, we should, it will take years to make a dent in it, what till then?

    The way I see it is that we're over half way down a tunnel and can't really go back so need to press forward keeping the hospitalisations under control till it should start alleviating itself in Spring then fully open. England is going full bore with boosters and bringing back masks, that should be an indication to everybody, Boris will not have liked to bring back the mask mandates and England has a higher tolerance than other countries for letting people die.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭Danye


    I’m not saying they don’t lower your infection or transmission rate but I am querying how effective they are, or how effective they claim to be?

    I always thought that no vaccine could ever be described as being 100% effective, ever, yet we had people, who are highly respected and who now have huge media profiles who were claiming exactly that.

    And again, my own personal genuine experiences is most of the people I know who have been infected have been vaccinated. I genuinely know of 2 couples were both women were vaccinated and their partners weren’t. Neither of the partners got it. One of the women is in an awful way and she has been signed off work with long covid until the new year. Her unvaccinated partner, who would be obese, is fine.

    A lot of it doesn’t make sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    What nonsense is this - test a quarter of the population every week:



    whatever about the practical issues with this, what purpose does it serve? Isolate if you have symptoms, and give out 3rd doses at rapid pace. Testing is pretty pointless at this stage in the pandemic.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,295 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Danye wrote

    I always thought that no vaccine could ever be described as being 100% effective, ever, yet we had people, who are highly respected and who now have huge media profiles who were claiming exactly that.

    Who, specifically, are these people? There were plenty of people* who suggested (pre-Delta) that we might get herd immunity from widespread vaccination, based on the data from the clinical trials, but I don't recall anyone saying that the vaccines would be 100% effective on an individual basis, at least after the impact of Delta was known.

    As has been pointed out quite often, we are seeing a reproduction number of around 1 from a virus whose basic R number is somewhere upwards of 5. How else would that have been achieved, considering that fairly few people (like 2% of the population) have been confirmed cases?

    * myself included, although I have neither any kind of media profile nor any amount of respect



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Some vaccines give a sterilising immunity, it's still not 100%, but close to it, antibodies in the blood attack the virus quickly before it has a chance to multiply and pass on to others (but you stick your finger in someone's nose, you can still get it), the COVID vaccines have a high antibody count soon after receiving a dose (like much much higher than needed), but this drops off over months (seems to be an evolutionary quirk in our immune system to coronavirus such as colds) which means the virus can get in and multiply and then pass on, protection against severe disease is still there (for most) and doesn't wane anywhere near as much as the ability to stop transmission. It's thought this is because the vaccines aren't specifically targeting the respiratory system so the virus can build up there before the immune system sees the virus and starts attacking it by which time it has a foothold already. Nasal vaccines may help this (but at the disadvantage of not offering as good protection against severe disease) and would likely be targeted at those less vulnerable to the effects of COVID.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭the kelt


    No problem, I’m coming from the same outlook I believe as you. I don’t believe in ignoring COVID, we can’t, we accept some things to live relatively normally with COVID, for example masks, doesn’t bother me in the least apart from when I forget the bloody thing and restrictions in terms of foreign travel etc.

    But not what we have been doing, the most restricted country in Europe throughout this entire pandemic over all, asking people to limit their movements to drive numbers in hospitals down and reward then by imposing even more restrictions.

    The plan was vaccines, hasn’t really worked out as planned so the plan now it seems is more vaccines…….. when that doesn’t work out, what next, oh emm restrictions and restrictions remaining when the rest of Europe opens up and eases, restrict when we shouldn’t ie during summer months and try open up more when we shouldn’t ie what we done.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    It's probably best to judge the effectiveness of the vaccine based on actual data rather than a couple of anecdotes. The data on vaccine effectiveness against serious illness is absolutely clear - vaccines work very well. It's a pity they don't stop transmission quite as well as we hoped, but without vaccines we would now be in the most severe lockdown we've ever had because delta is so transmissible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    If we didn't have such a high vaccine take up we could be back in full lockdown like Austria or a 5am to 5pm curfew like the Netherlands or having to consider mandatory vaccines (highly unlikely here and the UK due to the high take up %).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    The booster programme is in 2nd gear when it should be in 5th gear. Excuses that people were not yet at 5 months. My parents were up to 7 months and are mid 70’s.

    I am late 40’s and should be offered it next week but the chances of that happening are next to none - perhaps in 6 weeks time the way it is going.

    While Paul Reid and Tony H and the NPHET crowd are wagging their fingers at us, the slow pace of boosters is down to them. It is not a supply issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭the kelt


    I know, I don’t have an issue with vaccines, kinda backing up a point I made earlier today, raise any questions at all and kinda labelled anti vax here.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    This is just my opinion of course, but I believe we've become far too focused on antibody levels, their peaks after vaccination(or infection) and their waning levels a few months in which leads to more positives/infections. What we should be looking at are not infection rates, but the severity of illness that results in the infected. And that is much more down to immune system memory kicking into action because of vaccination(seems to be more unreliable after "natural" infection), a mechanism that when faced with the pox again recognises it and mounts enough defences against it and in time to stop it going beyond mild snotters or no symptoms in the vast majority. Exceptions would be the very old and immunocompromised whose immune systems are less effective at producing immune memory and they'd need boosters alright, or if covid mutated enough to evade those immune memories.

    For me, again my opinion, I think it's a fools errand to keep pursuing constantly high antibody levels and boosters to keep them high(save for in the vulnerable demographics) and I can't see the logic. It's unsustainable and no vaccine ever(or infection) causes that in the body. If you had measles or were vaccinated against it you are "immune" to measles for life(viral infections vary on this length of protective memory. EG tetanus is more like ten years) and if your blood was tested for measles antibodies two months after infection or vaccination yep they would be high. A year later? Ten years later? They'd be way down and you'd need to dig deep for them, but you'd still be protected from symptomatic disease from measles. Now I could understand the antibody thing if it meant a massively reduced transmission rate and we could ringfence outbreaks and drive the pox extinct like we did with smallpox and are nearly there with polio, but as it stands that's never going to happen. Unlike those two examples there are too many reservoirs for this pox, including animals, the vaccines are leakier, covid can spread before symptoms arise, there are asymptomatic infections and transmission protection is too low and we don't have the luxury of a century to attempt it.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Exactly. I actually think we should cut back testing capacity and use the swabbers and facilities to vaccinate people instead. Getting third doses into arms is critical at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,923 ✭✭✭Bananaleaf


    Yes, I suppose that is kind of what I am saying. And that

    It probably is far fetched. I don't come here claiming to know the answer to everything.

    I'm sure adults are picking it up from their adult social interaction.

    But all I can tell you is that in my job (second level teaching) we have gone from 2-3 members of staff being absent to almost 20 each day, now that the close contact rule has been brought in. Which, to me, at second level makes no sense as we are masked. But you see, if the rule has to be in place for one, it has to be there for all and I'll be the first to admit that if second level teachers were made exempt from that rule, there would be war (I'd be happy to be exempt)

    All I was suggesting is that the possible train of thought from government (yeah yeah, I know, 'they don't have a train of thought) is that if they can mask the older of primary school children they can go back to not needing the isolate rule.

    Is this the right and most effective way to go about doing so? No. Is it the cheapest? Yes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,453 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    We’ve what, 94% of the population vaccinated and yet we have 4k plus new cases everyday for over a month now if not longer? They’re all not unvaccinated.

    image.png

    Not all unvaccinated, but still make up a sizeable chunk of daily cases ~50%. That figure excludes anyone under 12, who of course would also be unvaccinated.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,471 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think labelling it as "rewarded with freedom" and "punished with restrictions" is a bit weird, the adult population aren't children, we should understand what's needed and why it's needed to combat a novel virus that disproportionality effects those with weak immune systems and are older from dying off in droves without feeling the need to be rewarded for it.

    Meme from reddit that kind of sums it up.

    image.png




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭Danye




  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Living with Covid means no sectors of the economy being restricted in any way whatsoever. Nor social distancing being a thing.

    Focus on ventilation in enclosed areas and schools and (free, unlimited) antigen testing for when someone feels under the weather for whatever reason, and isolating if positive. Mask mandates at certain times of year or to manage a surge. Develop treatments. Meanwhile get on with building the appropriate hospital infrastructure and capacity

    If this goes on for 5-10 years as has been suggested by British government scientific advisors, ‘living with Covid’ CANNOT mean any restrictions on economic activity whatsoever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭Danye


    I agree. But with stories like that out there, it’s easy to see why people might become reluctant around the vaccination program / boosters.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,917 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    I am confused.

    My friend's 10 year old tested positive today (yes -after week 1 of mask wearing).

    So before - as in say two weeks ago or so - the principal would have texted his pod/table, antigens all the way, byt everyone keeps going as long as they have no symptoms (not the positive child obviously).And prior to that, all at his pod would have to go for tests - but that's it.

    So now that they have masks -his pod still get informed, still get antigens and keep going as is??

    I don't see how the teacher or the masks really feature in this?I understand it was different in Sept/Oct but of recent weeks?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Fair enough, I think people looking at memes on Reddit a bit weird. Actually Reddit is weird.

    Also the reply above which has nothing to do with what was said in the post you quoted but off on some other tangent altogether is a bit weird, you raised the advantages of the vaccine uptake and I agree with you.

    The public and adult population get it in the main, hence the fact for the last 2 weeks people have been asked to do their bit and reduce hospital numbers and they did.

    Very basic behavioural theory examines what reward does for people in terms of human nature and behaviour, especially in terms of bringing people with you, getting buy in.

    You might find the labelling a bit weird but that’s human nature unfortunately, also I don’t recall stating the words you quoted “rewarded with freedoms” and “punished with restrictions” at all, perhaps you’re think of some other post, but I believe the lack of basic knowledge of human behaviour throughout this whole pandemic to be lacking considerably.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    That report says 13% of all cases were not vaccinated in the four weeks to November 20th.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,295 ✭✭✭✭Lumen




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,923 ✭✭✭Bananaleaf


    Can't comment on primary schools but in secondary, that was always how it was done (we were all masked from day one)

    The change came for us when they did away with the 'close contacts isolate rule' and that is when principals stopped informing parents of positive cases at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Did you read the thread? The conclusion is the virus is milder. That doesn't seem to fit your posting style.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    My plan is to leave people die tbh. Lots wouldn't agree with it but this predominantly kills the very old and the very sick, so I don't see why 99% of people should have their lives curtailed to save lots of people who have either lived theirs or their survival outlook isn't very good even without covid around anyway.

    Mitigate the hospital spread by having some dedicated covid only treatment centres, and vaccinations, antivirals etc are there for those people or anyone else who wants to, but outside that, let's just go back to normal imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 545 ✭✭✭Crocodile Booze


    Edgy. Extremely embarrassing for you, but edgy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 568 ✭✭✭72sheep


    So interesting times ahead chaps. Vaccines are still preventing death amongst that unchanged vulnerable cohort (i.e. 80+ year olds and and those with <insert your preferred quantifier here> underlying conditions). However the reasons for targeting the unvaccinated are not converging:

    - Omicron ignores vaccination status

    - Vaccines do not inhibit transmission (per Tony Holohan remember)

    - The “unvaccinated are dominating hospital ICUs" story has disappeared without explanation (probably with some relief as they were never able to qualify this strange statistic)

    - …

    I’m feeling the need for a new Long-Covid-is-going-to-rip-through-the-younger-cohort type narrative. Over to you RTE’s Brendan O’Connor ;-) 


    Speaking of which, both his mature lady agony aunts yesterday had a story to tell about how they were accommodating unvaccinated family member peers over Christmas. Will leave it as an exercise for the amateur mathematicians here to work out the probability of this scenario being true.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The problem is the vaccinated loons who think that because the got two bangs of the jab, that they are bulletproof. This is not the case, they can transmit and get the virus. Science has shown us that the vaccines begin to wane after 3 months. Hence any person who has had their second jab over 6 months ago is no longer well protected.

    Science shows antibody levels wane after a few months, but protection from serious illness and death remains high. This is reflected in the realities today. Society has never been as open in the last 18 months than it is now, positive test results are very high, yet hospilatisations, ICU numbers and deaths remain low and half of those are in the unvaccinated.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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