Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Yes , unfortunately that list grows every week 🙄.

To be honest I prefer to try to engage , as some people, even though we may not agree on all things Covid, do have good points and as long as it remains civil , it is good to hear another perspective .

There has been a lot of insulting and meanness on the thread in the last while.

I would say we are all guilty to a degree but everyone needs to look at why they are bothering to make life more difficult than it already is by fighting on the internet ,and I don't mean just arguing a point . Nothing wrong with that .

We all will not agree , I know , but there doesn't have to be hate .

To start with there's the headline, deeper into the article it says, "Mr Holohan warned deaths per day have been increasing very slowly at approximately seven per day, or 200 deaths per month" , right so this conversation has probably been put off for a long time but as morbid as it is they need to have a discussion as to what is the acceptable level. Now I know every death is awfully sad, I fully understand that but the conversation needs to be had, what is the end goal, what does living with it look like, because ultimately some people will indeed die.

I've a major issue with the following as well, Prof Nolan's random number generator back out,

"Nphet’s modelling shows that if Omicron becomes the dominant variant over the coming weeks and the vaccines are not as effective as they have been with the Delta strain then there is high risk of a surge in virus transmission over Christmas.

He said the most pessimistic but plausible scenario show there will be 750 to 1300 people in hospital due to Covid and 200-400 will require critical care."

How on earth can he possibly predict this, there won't be full data on Omicron yet for another while, so how on earth can anyone stand over these figures, it's a complete guess.

Well under the last set of hospital predictions, let's come up with more new graphs based on incomplete information.

“The NPHET believes that these are a targeted set of measures focused on those activities and settings that are likely to have the biggest impact over the coming weeks, while maintaining as much economic and societal activity as possible,” Mr Holohan wrote.

Show us the evidence dude, or gtfo

You're own numbers from the last two weeks would not support this!

Can I have a thumbs up ?

seeing as the majority of these posts are for that

It's quite simply beyond belief at this stage. I'd have more respect if they said that restrictions are needed until we have more data on the new variant rather than producing projections again....all while his most recent projections are way off.

So yesterday 48% of those in hospital with covid are unvaccinated.. and 50% of those in ICU with covid also unvaccinated.. speaks volumes!!!

on the up side, 1000's going for 1st/2nd vaccine of late

There were graphs printed here yesterday from the Gauteng province in SA which showed exponential rise in cases and somewhat in hospitalisation, so there is data out there about the effects of Omicron.

Our population is so different, older yes, but more vaccinated .

You are right that they keep shooting themselves in the foot with these off the cuff predictions of numbers and modeling which is out of date by the time it is produced .

It would be better to leave those predictions to the briefings at this stage.

When is the next briefing btw ?

Why do they say indoor venues have to operate at 50% capacity?

It's really disingenuous, how many venues could actually operate at 50% capacity, especially at short notice?

Olympia, 3arena, bordgais, gaiety, whelans, vicar street etc. would basically all be closed again under these proposals as they've already sold tickets. (They are basically closing pretty much all indoor venues).

It's an absolute farce, especially with 92% fully vaccinated and other countries like England getting on with things

Why are we seeing the letter? Why is it public? Surely it goes to government to consider, then whatever is announced is for the public?

These letters / announcements from Nphet are being taken as de facto decisions by the public. It's ridiculous at this stage. But what to do about it? I've written to my TD to complain about Nphet's public-facing activities, but I don't know what more I can do. I'm only (counts) one person.

They dont know if they're all omicron because the cases haven't been sequenced - back in August they have been predicting a new wave of infection in South Africa in December also.

Unfortunately when you set the bar at the start as no deaths are exceptable in a pandemic your really setting yourself up for a long slog. People say but “it’s a pandemic” we need lockdown, restrictions, mandatory vaccination , mask kids etc but won’t talk about deaths. It’s not nice nobody wants to do it but when the bar is set so high as no deaths it’s very hard to move on.

Infairness to the government I think that they have moved on a bit they don’t hammer home the amount of deaths anymore. In the beginning 3,4 deaths was making headlines now hardly mentioned. If we could do the same with cases we might have a chance.

@stephenjmcd wrote:

That's 1,025 people in hospital, give or take 275. And 300 people in ICU, give or take 100. As a confidence interval that's huge, and basically says that their estimates are very unstable.

And that's the pessimistic projection.

Even by their own sh1tty models, there is no good reason to call for further restrictions.