Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Sure, I see the ever increasing housing list and housing crisis cries too.

The logic of calculating future supply and demand requirements by (average household size x population growth) only makes sense if you also accept that the present demand and supply situation is accurately represented by the (average household size x current total population).

Would you accept that?

I understand the calculation you have done, and how you arrived at the conclusion "it leaves us needing housing for nearly 50k people".

I am just saying that the claims you are making based on your calculation would only have any validity if the current total stock of habitable housing x current average household size also showed a deficit of housing for nearly 50k people.

Which oddly enough it doesn't. It in fact shows we have a fairly significant surplus.

Hence by your calculations there should actually be very little difficulty in getting supply where it supposedly needs to be.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to say future housing demand is very simple, its average household size and population growth, you can't argue with the figures and simultaneously say, pfft ignore the figures, I don't care what average household size and current population is, you can't argue with the headlines.

Have you anything to back that up and does it take into account housing demolished or inhabitable and that are built in areas that have little or no infrastructure??

Sure. It's pretty simple.

According to the most recent calculation, the total stock of habitable residential dwellings in Ireland was 2,052,429.

Not sure where the average household size of 2.5 you mentioned came from, all official sources I have seen say it is 2.75 (eg the Housing Agency)

Total housing capacity = 2.75 x 2,052,429 = 5,644,180 people

Total current population = 5,011,500 (your figures which I'd broadly agree with)

Capacity for 5,644,180 people minus 5,011,500 total people = 632,680 spare capacity or 230,065 spare houses (632,680/2.75). Some way off a 50k deficit as you suggested.

Using your 2.5 figure you get housing capacity of 5,131,073 and 119,573 spare capacity or 47,289 spare houses. Still some way off a 50k deficit.

If I made a mistake in the above, let me know? How are you coming up with the claim we are 50k houses short based on population figures and average household sizes?

Lol indeed. 🙄 🙄

LOL indeed. That’s pretty funny.

Worded it incorrectly putting it mildly I would think.

so approximately 1000 new apartments built in 2016 rising to approximately 4000 in 2020 versus approx 8500 houses in 2016 rising to approx 16,500 houses in 2020.

so that is a relative outperformance of apartments as a % of new build stock going from 12% to 17%.

and you think this 5% difference in new build stock is going to cause the average household size, calculated over the entire housing stock and population, to drop from 2.75 to 2.5?!

LOL indeed. I think that is the biggest straw I’ve seen you clutch at yet.