The Omicron variant

Rebelbrowser · 29-11-2021 04:06PM

Just looking there at stats, South Africa had case positivity yesterday of 3.7%. As recently as last September there were at 21%. Clearly, early days, blah, blah, blah, but that doesn't exactly smack of a Super Mutant Omni-killing Variant?

29-11-2021 04:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240264#Comment_118240264

Including several that pre-date the first known cases in Africa. Could get interesting.

29-11-2021 04:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240264#Comment_118240264

Australia has had among the strictest set of restrictions on the planet, yet Omicron still managed to sneak into the country. Anyone who thinks it's possible to control the spread of a contagious virus has lost all sense of perspective.

We couldn't stop Alpha or Beta becoming the dominant strain.

We couldn't stop Delta becoming the dominant strain.

And we won't stop Omicron from becoming the dominant strain (if it ends up outcompeting Delta).

The idea that further restrictions are warranted based on the existence of a new variant is irrationally impulsive and doomed to fail.

Donald Trump · 29-11-2021 04:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240283#Comment_118240283

That would be the WHO rather than the Irish government.

And I think the confusion hinged on the definition of the word "airbourne"

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n913

Donald Trump · 29-11-2021 04:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240434#Comment_118240434

The idea that you think anyone is imposing restrictions under the impression that they can avoid it forever is "irrationally impulsive".

Restrictions are merely to slow it down so that we can have enough ICU beds for the anti-vaxx idiots instead of them all catching it at the same time and using them all up for the regular people who need them.

ACitizenErased · 29-11-2021 04:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240389#Comment_118240389

They're saying they expect SA cases to triple next week but their positivity rate has been stagnant for the past 3/4 days.

Irish Stones · 29-11-2021 04:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118232895#Comment_118232895

Actually more than one.

It's the first man and his whole family of 5.

Deeper Blue · 29-11-2021 04:22PM

According to Jonathan Van Tam: "If vaccine effectiveness is reduced as seems pretty likely then the biggest effects are likely to be in preventing infections"

It's not like the vaccines are great at preventing Delta infections so I don't see how omicron could be much more of an issue

29-11-2021 04:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240466#Comment_118240466

There's no evidence as yet to suggest that it causes more severe illness.

Imposing severe restrictions based on scant evidence is disproportionate and wholly irrational.

I'm in favour of vaccinations and sensible precautions and so on, but if we're to adhere to "we're following the science...", then perhaps it's best to wait for the science to prove that there are substantial additional risks.

Furthermore, it will take quite some time for it to become the dominant variant (if that's the trajectory) - well past the Delta December wave - so ICU should be readily available thereafter anyway (as well as an abundance of booster shots done throughout the population) and natural exposure.

Also, there's a difference between reduced efficacy from vaccines (in terms of catching the infection/mild symptoms), and reduction in severe illness. Having the population exposed to very mild symptoms but still with massive protection from against hospitalisation and death etc., is a very slimy use of the phrase "lack of vaccine effectiveness".

Wibbs · 29-11-2021 04:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240170#Comment_118240170

At the same time as the PPE shortage the HSE advice displayed on their website was that masks were only of value for those caring for covid patients, or for covid patients themselves. They posted extremely contradictory information. They also had a slew of advisors wheeled out to say that masks were counterproductive. Until of course they weren't. Wash your hands like you've got OCD and cough into your sleeve ballsology was the order of the day if you were a moron in a packed tesco stockpiling a bogroll mountain. Then we had the chief handwasher professor type telling people at a press conference that hand hygiene was all and that asymptomatic spread wasn't a concern a month after actual research published in respected scientific and medical outlets showed that it most certainly was. Something a dribbling imbecile with a search engine could have found out with one click. Oh and misrepresented the main Alpha symptoms as a runny nose and sore throat while he was at it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmKfS2TkrSo

They were most certainly not saying that masks were important for public health. Quite the opposite and mandatory mask wearing was resisted at the start. To say otherwise displays either a bad memory, or a wish to reinvent the past.

But let's forget the dim and distant past of 18 months ago shall we? Today we're told that transmission seems to magically drop away at the school gate, that transmission is an issue in shops and on the bus so you must wear a mask, but again magically drops away in a full pub or nightclub so you don't have to. Well until midnight rolls around and then bejaysus, look out. It seems we have a new type out there, the Gremlin variant. We don't need to look into the past to see utter bloody nonsense and contradictory "advice" and protocols in plain view.

Irish Stones · 29-11-2021 04:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118233136#Comment_118233136

He arrived in Italy on November 12th, and we were notified on 27th, two weeks later.

cbreeze · 29-11-2021 04:31PM

I'll get worried when O-mega comes along. They will have run out of the Greek alphabet and then what will they do?

Donald Trump · 29-11-2021 04:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240545#Comment_118240545

Wibbs, not everything is binary. And to imply it is is highly disingenuous.

Just because they need to make exceptions and priortise is not a justification for free for all anarchy.

ACitizenErased · 29-11-2021 04:45PM

Fantastic thread here. A South African scientist calling out that clown Ding.

https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1465303487114321929?s=21

.42. · 29-11-2021 04:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240553#Comment_118240553

Give it human names like the Alan , Bob, Charles or Dave Variant.

Beware of the Karen variant.

choronzonix · 29-11-2021 04:53PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240545#Comment_118240545

I recall an active sneering in the media at people who had begun wearing masks early on in the pandemic, that they were wasting their time. The infamous comments by Luke O'Neill on the Late Late comes to mind, for example. Tubridy asks him why there's panic about mask wearing and he responds "they've watched too many horror movies".

Wibbs · 29-11-2021 04:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240578#Comment_118240578

I have no idea what being binary or not has anything to do with anything. Though it does seem the government advice seems to think the virus is. Relatively unlikely to get around a packed pub or school, but much more likely to get around a bus or your local tesco. And who the hell is calling for a "free for all anarchy"? I don't know what post you just read, but it certainly wasn't the one I wrote. Keeping the schools open is political, keeping the pubs and clubs open is political and economic. It's not scientifically valid if they wanted to keep transmission rates down.

Indeed I think the economic and educational and psychological future well being of the vast majority of Irish people who will only experience a mild illness from this pox, especially after vaccination is more important than shutting everything down. I just wish they were at least trying to be honest about that. If we had the spare hospital capacity - which we don't because of decades of government, civil service and union mismanagement - I'd be opening the country up more.

landofthetree · 29-11-2021 04:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240389#Comment_118240389

We aren't be told the full story. Same last year with Delta.

Its lockdown on the horizon. Then 6 months to get the new vaccines out. Then a new variant again. It will never end.

Wibbs · 29-11-2021 05:03PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240672#Comment_118240672

Unless this virus actually mutates into something that starts killing more people and more people under 50(and I'm 53) I for one will ignore any lockdown if and when it comes. I will continue to wear masks indoors in public places and practice hand hygiene and the like, but I'll be damned if I will follow another lockdown.

Roger_007 · 29-11-2021 05:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240553#Comment_118240553

They could borrow last year’s unused storm names from the Met Office!

No need to worry until we get to Varient Patricia!

BuildTheWall · 29-11-2021 05:30PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240659#Comment_118240659

Your man Luke O’Neill is just a mouthpiece of the Government and whatever “public health advice” is in vogue on that particular day. How people still can’t see that I’ll never know.

youcancallmeal · 29-11-2021 05:37PM

I see some experts are speculating that omicron has already been in circulation for some time now. In general though I'm seeing a lot of experts with positives appraisals of what we know so far i.e. mild symptoms, vaccines work against it, no hospitalisation spike in South Africa. Of course they all footnote this with the warning that we don't know for sure yet and all the fear mongers latch onto this.

Rebelbrowser · 29-11-2021 06:24PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240672#Comment_118240672

But why?. I never get in this narrative who people think are profiting from such lockdowns. And yes there are some, but most people, including most wealthy / influential people, do not want lockdowns. There isn't a Bilderburg Group somewhere planning this.

Lollipop95 · 29-11-2021 06:27PM

Headline in the Daily Mail saying that global experts are stating that this variant will be good for the world. Possibly pandemic ending?

lbj666 · 29-11-2021 06:29PM

I suppose we are going to learn about its behaviour here sooner than expected given it looks like its in the community in Essex for 2 weeks.

I see the UK have reduced booster gaps to 3 months which sounds a little bit hasty.

joseywhales · 29-11-2021 06:55PM

The massive negative bias toward the who just goes to proves the old adage of "don't shoot the messenger", maybe they should preface every statement with that. Well we can't blame nature so we must blame the first human system that can take responsibility, I mean if they didn't exist many more people would be dead, there would be even less global cooperation. But we can all sit on the couch and moan about one or two of the thousands of decisions that the who or nphet or the government or <insert authority here> make , it's like blaming your parents because they weren't perfect. Imagine if none of these bodies existed. Worse still when it goes beyond accusations of incompetence into the land of conspiracy theory. It makes me wonder when your outlook is that people take positions of authority only for their own selfish purposes, then what do you do to the people in your life with whatever small power you have. If your expectations of people are so low.

Don't shoot the messenger but do shoot the messenger RNA