The Coming World War

Russia may well have the largest tank army in the world, but it can only afford to take them out for a bit on a Sunday.

One of the biggest threats to Russia is its dwindling population and the migration of Chinese to the Russian Far East.

Would it be in Russia’s national interest to have an ever more powerful China on its border, one which has resolved its South China Sea and Taiwan issue and can focus on expansion inland in Asia?

Whatever about the exact scenario outlined by the OP, I have no doubt that the climate change crisis will result in world war at some stage, probably earlier than many would expect.

As land and natural resources get scarce, the grab will be on and the idea of solving the worlds problems for all of mankind won't stand a chance - it's not off to a great start at the moment anyway. It will be' might is right' and countries with little resources of their (our?) own and with a heavy reliance on other countries for energy provision and sustainable economic development, will loose out first.

When the going gets tough, those who have the energy and resources will keep them for themselves and if they need any more, they will go wherever needed to get them.

You can add Iran into the axis of Russia and China. They won't be buddy buddy but they have a common "enemy" in the EU and the US and would coordinate with each other to the detriment of "The West" whenever such opportunities arise.

I didn't mean to demean the Russian people, comrade. Just pointing out that Russia cannot afford to run it's very large army on a war footing for very long.

Sorry the new quote system apparently doesn't allow me to split quotes.

Regardless, to address your final point, you seem to be forgetting that us poor benighted victims of said bully do have nuclear weaponry of our own capable of delivering a more than sufficient riposte. The strength of these authoritarian regimes is also their weakness - if you don't need to answer to the populace (at least directly) then at a certain point it becomes expedient to just lie or distract them, rather than endanger your own luxury.

Firstly I don't think that you can lump China and Russia together. From a foreign policy point of view the only thing that they have in common is that they both tend to veto the same things on the UN security council (they usually back up other authoritarian regimes). In terms of temperament they are poles apart. Russian foreign policy under Putin tends to be quite impulsive and reactionary. In contrast, China are always playing the long game. The idea that they would combine forces in a joint strike is .... not credible.

Now, will China eventually attack Taiwan? I believe they probably will in time. They are very conservative though. They are going to incrementally ratchet up the pressure over years and years. At the same time they will take soundings from the Americans to see what their appetite is like for actually defending the Taiwanese. The last thing that they would want to do is hitch their wagon to the unpredictable Russians. They are far too risk averse for something like that.

I find the attitude that it's the natural order of things that certain countries will forever be vassal states of Russia to be very disturbing.

It used to be the natural order of things that Ireland would forever be a vassal state of Britain.

Also OP, "hypersonic", "hypersonic", "hypersonic"🙄 - do you know how an ICBM works?

So that's a yes - vassal states, not independent nations.

Remember that in WWII Ireland was considered by many to be essential for Britain's security, and Churchill at war's end said that he had considered invasion? Would that have been OK? for the greater good and all that - sure who cares about a few hundred thousand dead Irishmen in a war killing tens of millions?

The idea that Russia needs to control or influence territory beyond its borders is laughable. It has the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. The idea that NATO presents it with a threat of invasion is also laughable.

As regards access to the open sea - a lot of unfortunate geography there, but that's tough. It doesn't give them the right to control or invade Norway, Sweden, Turkey or anywhere else. You conveniently forgot to mention Kaliningrad, also.

PS - misrepresenting history is not big or clever. The allies did not "invade neutral Norway" they attacked German forces which had already occupied Norway.

I abhor both nonsense and the doctrine of "might is right" which leaves little in your posts to admire.

I see the USA were having war games in the South China Sea and just completed 10 days of military exercises with asian allies in that region to deter China from attacking Taiwan. Some here say they might not bother but they are not doing all them drills for nothing. I personally hope no big wars happen for at least 60 years then after that I am not as bothered. I am sure there will be changes and the odd spat but hopefully no WW3 or Nukes fired. That's the last thing the World needs right now or anytime really.

Since Taiwan doesn't have diplomatic ties with a lot of countries China has taken the opportunity to repatriate them and have done so in the hundreds. Probably a scary prospect for any Taiwanese abroad.

Haha, good spot. My sloppy use. I should have said what the article did which is "extradited". Which basically means the charges are arising from the Chinese side be they legitimate or otherwise so China is actively looking for these people to be sent to them for sentencing. That's an even scarier prospect than what I first implied.

Repatriating, which I used would have implied that they came to the attention of authorities in other jurisdictions and sent back to the native country which as far as Taiwanese are concerned while abroad is recognised as China for the most part but if China haven't been actively looking for them they've a better chance in this instance of getting sent to Taiwan.

Not only that but all 66 approx of the US's submarines can pop up outside Beking and fire off a few nuclear rockets. They are also all nuclear powered and thus more advanced than Russia's and China's diesel subs. Then you start to include Japan and other US allies and all those subs add up.

On the China side only 6 of their 76 subs can actually reach the US coast. So if it ever went nuclear China would be basically wiped off the map. So would a lot of other countries from the fallout so in reality its a no-win scenario and China are too clever to go nuclear regardless of how bad they want Taiwan.

That's good so no WW3 anytime soon so good.

The larger danger from a potential conflict would be for unrestricted cyber attacks. There aren't the same conventions covering those as there are for regular means of warfare. You could have large facets of modern society severely damaged or destroyed at the speed of light, Banking records wiped out, electrical grids ruined, telecommunications knocked out. Potentially with much graver long term impacts than bombs being dropped.

I see more sabre rattling by Russia recently. It has two Nuclear bombers pertoling the skies of Belarus and they were using drones to shot down other drones over Crimea but yet Putin claimes he has no interest in invading Ukraine but then why have all them Russian troops on the border. I think he thinks Biden is a week president and this might have been easier but he is wrong. Still it could be worse. You can't help but wonder what Trump would have said and done if this had of happened under him and would Putin would have assured Trump nothing was going on but then invade quickly anyway or not.