Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

Ok here is some independent analysis done on Baba's results last week -

Diving into different segments of Alibaba's e-commerce empire, the only real profitable segment is "customer management," which is essentially online ad revenue from merchants on Alibaba's platform. That segment only grew 3% in the third quarter. While some would attribute that to difficult yearly comparisons and the Chinese economy, even Alibaba acknowledged competitive pressure played a part, saying the slowdown "resulted from slowing market conditions and more players in the China e-commerce market."

And on the cloud business -

However, the cloud business is still unprofitable (although slightly profitable on an EBITA basis) and only makes up 10% of revenue, so success requires some faith Alibaba will turn this into a larger and profitable second main business. Additionally, that growth rate is still below all of the major U.S.-based cloud companies, even though they are all larger than Alibaba's cloud today.

The "I could be wrong" is the bottom line here, trust me our egos won't matter the fook if we are right and you are wrong, but your pocket absolutely will. I don't like to spread FUD but I think its vital to have your trading ground rules and chasing losses with the serious potential of catching a falling knife are almost always driven by emotions rather than rational facts.

I'm getting battered today and yesterday.

Anybody buying these dips yet?

Growth stocks getting pummelled...picked up some Upwork and Alteryx, both looking cheap compared to others...hope i won't regret.

compared to last year my portfolio is much diversified , still heavy on Green stocks would like to get rid of some of them.

Especially when it comes to Chinese companies... See TIGR for ref. (ouch).

Your probably right, it will probably recover but your getting a lot of red flags from China...from Jack Ma "disappearing", possible covid cover up, tennis player disappearing. They are just a couple of recent events that spring to mind. Bottom line (imo) China don't and won't give a f**k about the average investor they are a communist country and they'll do whatever to preserve that, even if that means pulling apart a giant like Baba. Again, its likely Baba will recover and be higher in a year or twos time. But there are many stocks that will also be significantly higher in two years time that would allow me to sleep easy at night, AMZN, GOOG and PYPL for example. Like others I wouldn't have one stock be 40%, even 10% would be the limit for me.

My question to you is...Would anything make you sell this stock?

I'd be reluctant to sell many stocks but there's always a line somewhere

I use to be a big China bull, but the more I read about them the less convinced I am. My biggest problem is with Xi Jingping, the leader. His approach the last 20yrs, a China who embraced capitalism absolutely was good for China, and hopefully will be continue pushing China for the next 5 or 10yrs, but what's really soured me is the way hes abolished presidential terms. Dictatorships who hang on beyond their welcome always tend to become very erratic in their control, especially as they age. Chinas growth rates have been exceptional the last few yrs, but mostly from the shear scale, their population is aging particularly fast due to the 1 child policies of the 90s, and a Japanese style deflationary event could well hit them hard at some stage next 10yrs, mix that up with an erratic aging dictator who won't leave, and all bets are off for China. I'm still happy with the likes of my NIO, NIU, Bilibili etc, but won't be adding to any of them moving forwards.

I don't believe the Chinese story for two reasons. To explain why, just look at two of it's neighbours Japan and Korea. Both of these countries have already achieved what China is supposed on the verge of achieving - become a fully developed country. Now look at how Japan and Korea did it -

• Consumer consumables (cars, electronics, etc) made by local companies which started out cheap and cheerful but reliable then went up the value chain (Japan - Toyota, Nissan, Honda, JVC, Panasonic, etc, ) (Korea - Hyundai, Samsung, Kia, etc) What are the Chinese equivalents. China is now the workshop of the world but mainly manufacturing products for Western companies. As costs rise, China is as vulnerable to offshoring now as the West was 10/20 years ago.
• During their rise, both Japan (70's/80's) and Korea(90's) had significant budget surplus's. China in contrast has been funding their current rise thru debt - they have huge debts. So their current model (funding growth thru debt) cannot last much longer. How is their economic model going to adapt as relations with the West deteriorates and all Xi cares about is hanging on to power.

I am certainly not a bull on how this is going to play out.

China versus Ireland. Using USA Dollar $ to Compare

Debt per Citizen - China $3,635 Ireland $49,294

Debt as a % of GDP - China 45.58% Ireland 67.96%

Have a look yerself BB.

China Debt Clock - National debt of China (worlddebtclocks.com)

This is the bit I like;

If you spend $1,000,000 a day it would take you 30912 years and 0 month to spend all China debt.

I'm looking at transferring my Stocks and Shares ISA to one that'll allow US stocks to be held. Any recommendations of brokers that are good value? I'm looking at IG, does anyone on here use them and if so would you recommend?

Sold about €2k of Teledoc shares yesterday - the only bloody thing that's up today