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Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,433 ✭✭✭franglan


    Anyone still on GAN? Absolute disaster currently in on BABA too. Might just uninstall my degiro account here for a bit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91 ✭✭all the bais


    Bought Visa at $200 yesterday. Have no idea how this Amazon fiasco will play out but worth a shot



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 890 ✭✭✭jams100


    GANs investor relations conference set out long term targets:

    2023 Rev 225-250M

    2026 Rev 500-600M

    Long term EBITDA of 30-35%

    Look at their performance over the coming 24 months in perspective of the guidance they issued. Don't look at the daily/weekly shares price.

    I've added another bit yesterday. The CEO added around these current prices a number of weeks ago which should give a little more reassurance.

    If they hit those targets over the next 5 years the stock should be (imo) ~$25 (That's 20% growth per year, but would probably happen quite happen in a short space of time. (The longer the base, the higher the space).

    That 20% per year is all based on them actually executing. Hence why I will watch over the next 12-24, months


    EDIT: Just saw the CEO (Smurfit sold $500k of shares a few days ago, not a great sign...He still owns $24million however)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Pray for me.

    Down over 5% overall today and growing, mostly down to BABA. (40% of my portfolio)

    My portfolio is only up 3% overall in a massive bull market which worries me. BABA I am down 5k. ****! 🤑



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,610 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Still in GAN, but profited from that a few times before so may load up again. Sold half my BABA a few weeks back, still think theres more room to fall on that. So those 2 arent pulling me down that much today. However, everything else is, my portfolio currently down 2.7%, only LG, ABF and PSTH(!) in the green



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    I'm getting hammered today too on both BABA and Twitter. Still up on both, the great thing about buying cheap. I wonder how low will BABA go. Might buy some more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 890 ✭✭✭jams100


    And Smurfit sells another 155k shares ($1.9M).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭Pinsnbushings


    I just saw that aswell..I'm bag holding a 40 percent loss at this stage not massive money but still, time to cut losses and jump too?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 890 ✭✭✭jams100


    I'm not happy about him selling, so won't be averaging down (yet).

    Fundamentally the stock isn't too bad at current prices, so going to hold and see what happens with insiders.

    It's only about 3% of my portfolio anyway so won't do too much damage for me. I do like the general gambling sector esp in America. (Big TAM). Given good guidance out to 2026, if they hit their numbers then there's a good payoff here (*if*).

    Going to hold for now and see how they execute, I hope Smurfit is done selling now, not good watching a CEO selling shares when you think they are fairly valued. (Makes my nose itchy)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭Pinsnbushings


    Not pretty viewing, what kind of positive reasons would a ceo be selling at 52w low share prices if he didn't think it was going lower? Everything in the sector has been taking a hammering though.

    At least its giving me a balanced portfolio as my gan losses are wiping out my cloudflare gains. Was tempted to sell both yday as they are making me a little nervous for the opposite reasons.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,664 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Don't worry too much about CEO sales, could be anything, tax bill, diversifying, buy a new house/yacht. He still owns plenty



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,284 ✭✭✭bcklschaps



    I had some GAN but fortunately got out when things started to turn.

    I think the US gambling story is still intact, but I prefer more pure gambling plays as opposed to gambling product provider companies like GAN.

    The whole gambling sector is taking a hammering, right now. I have Draftkings, Penn national and Flutter. Well underwater on all of them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 890 ✭✭✭jams100


    Correct, but you also shouldn't ignore it completely either. He's on a pretty big salary ($2m) so really he shouldn't be selling shares. (Obviously there could be many reasons he is selling (Medical expenses etc.). One to keep an eye on, if other insiders were to start selling I'd then get worried. We'll see over the coming days / weeks if he's done selling.

    Also its a little strange as he bought shares back in Aug for like $13 and two months later sells shares for $12.20. Just something to keep an eye on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 238 ✭✭TalleyRand83


    Anyone else having a bloodbath?

    Really annoyed at myself for jumping out of the "safer" stocks about two weeks ago and concentrating my picks down to 23, am sure in the long run it'll be okay but feel a bit gutted to be stuck on: TDOC, PLTR, BABA, FUBO, PELO, FVRR, DKNG as feel like there is definitely a few dogs in this pile.

    The couple I shed to focus on growthier names have of course all steadily risen while my portfolio drops

    I have massive faith in others that have pulled back that I'm holding like DOCU, CRWD, PYPL, MELI just feel like I should pause for a few weeks rather than keeping up the DCA'ing

    With my first proper 12 month of investing coming around in Feb I expect to be down, shouldnt really matter as I'm planning on holding for 5+ years but its just a psychological box I wanted to tick especially after being up around the 10% for nearly all of the last 9 months



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I'm in the green overall by like 0.5%. I was up 12% and I have a sizeable portfolio. BABA is like 40% of my portfolio so I'm getting pummeled and I have Lemonade, Draftkings, Crispr too and they're all getting hammered too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 238 ✭✭TalleyRand83


    It any little downwards bumps since start of the year I kept jumping to buy a little more to lower average, still have a bit of cash on the sideline but maybe might let the knife fall as they say. Seems my little exercise of trying not be a mini mutual fund (I was in 45 stocks) came at the worse time possible



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,610 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    I have been unable to login to degiro since before noon, either on the webpage or the app.

    Scared to try again now...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,284 ✭✭✭bcklschaps


    Yeah, Degiro appears to be down. Very frustrating just watching Asana in freefall...and I can't get out of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭massdebater


    That's a lot of BABA! Do you sleep at night? 🤔



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,162 ✭✭✭LawBoy2018




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    And I'm buying more. Another 20 shares soon. :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭massdebater


    Curious why you believe in them so much? Or you don't think there are better opportunities available? The last year hasn't been kind to them at all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,391 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    Jack Ma largely still underground. So Baba is damaged goods in my view. It will bounce back but long term I couldn't have confidence in it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Thinking of getting into it at the first sign of a bounce



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    They're a mammoth. 250k employees. Used by a lot of Asia. Cloud revenue growing. It's a risk I'm willing to take.

    I don't see many other places I'd like to put 40% of my portfolio in. I have about 30% in BRK.B.

    From Nov 2014 - December 2015 it declined 50%.

    June 2018 - December 2018 it declined 40%.

    Everyone is pessimistic when the trend is down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,664 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    You've obviously done more research than the rest of us on them, and I admire your conviction, but don't be blinded by your conviction.

    Big companies have gone bankrupt or disappeared in the past. It's not impossible for BABA to never go back there.

    I'd never go 40% into one position personally, the risk of one company wiping out 40% versus the potential gain isn't worth it IMO. Not when every stock in the market has been on a tear



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Wealth is preserved via diversification

    Wealth is gained by concentration

    I'm aware it could go to 0. If it does, it was a risk I was willing to take.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,391 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    Ouch, no I'll vote with shedite here, theres conviction and there's doubling down on a stock that has been on a horrible downtrend with more downside potential still, while the main indexes are all at ATHs and ready for a 15 or 20% pullback. I'm very heavily exposed to NIO who are in not too much a different area to baba (just more in bed with the ccp so less likely to face the wrath similarly to baba and jack ma), but in any case I'm certainly not going to double down with NIO, and risk catching a falling knife. There are times to be brave and trust your blind conviction, but I really don't think now is the time, I'll happily leave gains on the table with NIO to play it safe here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 970 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    As you are also invested in BRK, you seem to be forgetting Buffet's 2 rules about investing -

    Rule Number One: Never Lose Money. Rule Number Two: Never Forget Rule Number One"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,235 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    They may be his rules but Buffet also said:

    The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient

    And Buffet has lost lots of money too. :) Charlie Munger is in big on BABA.



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