Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

17597607627647651580

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭cheezums


    I was listening to that yesterday, the traveller was talking all the rumours and misinformation that some travellers believe. One of them was that the vaccine turns you magnetic and cutlery will stick to you. Not a million miles away from some of the rubbish spouted on this forum on a daily basis. Misinformation is absolutely rampant nowadays unfortunately. It's sad so many people hear something on a facebook group or whatsapp and instantly believe it without even attempting to fact check it which in most cases can be done in seconds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,333 ✭✭✭bloopy


    It is already happening to an extent.

    I'm finding that those who gone to the extreme on this whole thing are starting to not get invited on nights out. It is too much hassle with arguments and complaining if you are in a venue that might not be sticking completely rigid to the rules.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Its a bit lazy to go back around to be fair.

    I mean we've already blamed the travellers, would have thought they could have come up with some new bogeymen to distract everyone.

    Guess it will be turn of shebheens again soon, followed by another round of the unvaxxed when the boosters are rolled out and then a new rap version of "we all partied at Christmas dont ye know"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    The vast majority can't because we have barely started on the over 70s so this is really not much of a plan. Outcomes for the younger groups generally do not mean hospitalisations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭crossman47


    Other years are an entirely different scenario. We have never run out of ICU beds. Yes, people have been left on trollies . These are sick but are admitted immediately if urgent treatment is needed. This is what triage does but it would run out of road if Covid was let run riot.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,643 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Nope, that rubbish is why we aren't actually going to solve the problem

    Obesity is the cause not the symptom.

    Obesity is a result of poor lifestyle choices.

    The only reason morbid obesity was a lower stat in ICU is because so few are actually that size. They dont survive long.

    Whats the stats readjusted for a BMI of 30???

    There was a very interesting report published I'll link it here

    https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19_and_Obesity-The_2021_Atlas.pdf


    As we show in this report, increased bodyweight is the second greatest predictor of hospitalisation and a high risk of death for people suffering from COVID-19. Only old age rates as a higher risk factor. The unprecedented economic costs of COVID-19 are largely due to the measures taken to avoid the excess hospitalisation and need for treatment of the disease. Reducing one major risk factor, overweight, would have resulted in far less stress on health services and reduced the need to protect those services from being overwhelmed.

    We show that in those countries where overweight affects only a minority of the adult population, the rates of death from COVID-19 are typically less than one tenth the levels found in countries where overweight affects the majority of adults. We also show that the drivers of overweight – especially high levels of consumption of processed foods – are associated with mortality from COVID-19.Lastly, we show that COVID-19 is not a special case: a number of other respiratory viruses lead to more severe consequences in people living with excess bodyweight, giving good reasons to expect the next pandemic to have similar effects. 


    Interestingly, a study in the UK found that for people with a BMI of 35 to 40, risk of death from COVID-19 increases by 40% and with a BMI over 40 by 90%, compared to those not living with obesity. Other data found that in intensive care units, 7.9% of critically ill patients with COVID-19 had a BMI over 40 compared with 2.9% of the general population.

    If we are serious about relieving the pressure on the health service for the next few years, one simple measure could help us achieve that



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    As I say, I'm mostly talking about other countries who don't have the luxury of a 90%+ vaccination rate.

    Using surge capacity is normal for us, but ICU patients specifically on A&E trollies and dying in hallways, is not. We scrape through by the skin of our teeth with ICUs full to the brim. And it's quite likely we will this year too.

    I've already said exactly what you said in my previous posts. That Ireland's current situation is not far departed from a typical Winter, so based on current figures we can just get the head down and get through.

    But if we had lower vaccination rates, it wouldn't be a typical Winter. Even as it is, the burden being placed on our health system by 10% unvaccinated, is immense. If that was 15%, we'd have to forget about coping and think about new measures.

    That's the reality for many EU countries at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 726 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    Fair play Bertie. We've a couple of house parties arranged this weekend after the staff Xmas party had hoped it would be a late one in Dublin city centre but the twitchers have won out again so needs must. Life goes on 😊



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 209 ✭✭Ah_well.


    The vaccine turns you magnetic and cutlery sticks to you! 😂😂 How can anyone believe that ? I’m sorry you can say misinformation is rife and damaging. I’d agree but theres no excuse for swallowing that . You’d have to be Neolithic man to believe that .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 209 ✭✭Ah_well.




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,012 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Coppers opening from 6pm to midnight. Nice to see them call the Governments bluff. Close them or dont €€



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,012 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    The modeling is laughable

    400k covid cases in January

    We've had only 500k cases in 19 months. Why will nobody call them out on this nonsense .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,153 ✭✭✭mollser


    🤣ffs! We're being taken for absolute fools😆

    I would say, that Nolan's original modelling for this wave looks to be pretty accurate actually, cases peaking in 2/3rd week of Nov and I think his hospitalisations model looks accruate too. I really wish the govt held their nerve this time, rather than driving a hole new level of uncertainty and fear (amongst elderly mainly). Uncertainty which is absolutely driving a whole new level of socialisation in anticipation of more restrictions. Again their lack of behavourial gurus is letting them badly down, also with the complete focus (perhaps by the media...) on the pessimistic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 726 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    It's complete nonsense made up rubbish in an attempt to scare people, again. NPHET and the government have been constantly on the airwaves and TV over the last 24hrs playing with peoples emotions. We haven't even got a journalist worth their salt to call them out on it not a single one complete bunch of nodding dogs. Predictions like that would get laughed out the door in the UK.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,732 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    I thought it was 200,000 yesterday



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,878 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    Its ridiculous that they're never called out on it. They have their regular spokesman Fergal Bowers on RTE just quoting them verbatim without question.



  • Posts: 676 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Glynn was predicting 200,000 and Holohoop was predicting 400,000. You couldnt make this **** up. We have had over 500000 cases in 19 months. I love to know where they are pulling these numbers from



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Based on 12,000 cases a day and it's their most pessimistic set of numbers. From what we have seen to date on modelling it will be way out but it is unquestionably being used at present to scare people into modifying their behaviour. Meanwhile 83% of over 80s have had boosters and 35% of over 70s.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,457 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Sure didn't they predict 2000 deaths between July and September back in June?

    Any chance there's a journalist in the country that might actually call them out on their useless models?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,503 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    Sadly the likes of Bowers, Richard Chambers and Gavan Reilly don’t really think it’s appropriate to call any of NPHETs decisions or projections into question.

    It’s explainer journalism on behalf of the government. Their job is to translate policy, not question it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Yes if you look at the headline numbers there is little change but dig a little deeper and things are looking more positive. I can only supply figures for Scotland so here you go.

    Yes overall case numbers are rising in Scotland, however this is being driven almost entirely by infections in <14's. The cases rates here have gone from 400 (31st Oct - end of half term) to 720 this week. The case rates in this age group are still increasing rapidly.

    In age groups 20-50+ the case rates (<300) also increased this month by circa 100 but are now levelling off

    In the older age groups 60+ case rates are all decreasing and all are at quite a low level now at around 100 per 100K

    With hospitalisations, these peaked in Scotland around 1100 on 20th Sept at they are now at 770. (case rates peaked at 6400 on 3rd Sept)

    Death rates also peaked around end of September at 23 per day, they are now falling rapidly and are currently at 7 per day

    So yes Scotland is not out of the woods yet but things are looking brighter.

    in terms of introducing further restrictions, there is a discussion on this (behind paywall but you get the idea)




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Modelling scenarios are not predictions.

    Its nearly 2 years of this stuff and people keep still jump to the same old nonesense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,457 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Wasn't our glacially slow reopening meant to stop us from going backwards?

    Yet they pulled the rug out from everyone days before the 22nd Oct and here we are less than a month later going backwards already.

    How the **** are the people that advised us to do this (i.e NPHET) still dictating policy in this country? They're clearly not fit for purpose and new ideas are needed. It's actually scandalous that these lads are still employed.



  • Posts: 676 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You have to laugh. Holohoop was on The Last Word predicting 400,000 and Glynn on RTE news predicting 200,000. These 2 gobshites work with the same group and both are predicting different numbers 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    BMI is a funny thing. I'm 6ft 2.7in height, and 16st. i do a lot of Core and Weight training, plus farming and cycle a lot. I've trained everyday this year for well over an hour, sometimes up to 3hrs, bar 7 days. When I train I push myself.

    I'm mid 40s and healthy and my BMI comes in at overweight 28. But there isn't a pick of flesh on me, I'm a very strong build. Rugby flanker type. When I tell my work colleagues I'm borderline obese, they laugh and say they're all fcuked! About 7 years ago I went on a very fruit and veg based diet, was 14st. Everyone said I looked miserable. I picked up an awful lot of colds etc. I was running 8 miles daily. We can't all do the cross country look, I'm just a big boned man. My late father was the same, big wrists, hands, arms, shoulders etc. I eat really healthily. My 5 a day at the least, fruit, veg, meat. No sugars (chocolate, fizzy drinks etc). I go to a chipper once a year. No white bread, i use stone ground brown like McCambridge.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,025 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    But they are predictions because the whole point of modelling is to envisage how a situation will develop. Whoever is doing these projections really needs to answer what they are basing these numbers on and what data they are inputting to get them - also has this data set been verified to be somewhat accurate before they used it. It’s not acceptable anymore for this random number bullshit, if you are going to state there will be 200000 cases in December you can fuckin well come out and display the methods you used to calculate it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    We use them here as a primary driver of public health policy. One of the issues with ours since summer is what they are taking into account, what values they use and their tendency to focus on the most pessimistic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,457 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Modelling scenarios are used to dictate policy and are for all intents and purposes the same thing as predictions



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 726 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    We'd need some actual journalists in the country first for that. Vincent Browne is the last decent one i can remember and he's retired.



Advertisement