Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Well this is it. We should have opened sooner and followed the UK example of opening up in the summer. This kip was too afraid.

Honestly I feel this would make a huge difference to people's perception of NPHET.

The current iteration of NPHET has failed spectacularly and none of them have any credibility remaining.

If they're going to keep a NPHET-like body they need a complete revamp, starting with new faces and a ban from the airwaves and Twitter.

At the moment they're rewarding failure by keeping the same people in place.

Yep and tell the media to stop getting soundbites off assholes like McConkey as well, I pay as much heed to him as I would to the beggar shouting in the middle of the street.

Looks like those who carry on with Xmas plans are acting "irresponsibly" if you go by what Tony is saying .

Tony asking people to stay at home and work from home. We need to cut discretionary social contacts, whatever the hell that means. Yeah, that message is just going to be roundly ignored.

He flat out lied to Dobbo when he said he was always in favour of antigen testing. He doesn't want the great unwashed using them because "reasons".

My word he just oozes condensation from every pore.

Well now, there is another HPSC report about June to November we can use to extract some of these values.

Total admissions to ICU: 400

Underlying conditions: 322

No underlyings conds: 78

Total vaxxed: 139

Unvaxxed/unknown: 261

If we assume it to be correct that 97% (or 98%) of vaccinated admissions to ICU have underlying condition, then we can say with some certainty that the total breakdown is like this:

Vaxxed w/underlying: 135 (33.75%)

Vaxxed w/o underlying: 4 (1%)

Unvaxxed w/underlying: 187 (46.75%)

Unvaxxed w/o underlying: 74 (18.5%)

This difference is pretty stark. Now, these are moving numbers. A lot of the unvaxxed may have come from earlier in the study, so it's in unfair to say for certain that being unvaxxed make you 18.5 times more likely to end up in ICU.

If we normalise the ratios, the ratio of healthy vaxxed people in ICU is between 1:33 and 1:50. The ratio of healthy unvaxxed people is 1:2.5.

1 in 2-and-a-half. That means that if you are healthy and unvaccinated, you are between 13 and 20 times more likely to end up in ICU than a vaccinated person.

If we apply these numbers to today's ICU figures, we can say that there are 20-25 people in ICU today who are unvaccinated and have no underlying conditions. 20-25 ICU beds that would be available to use if these people had gotten a vaccination. 20-25 families not worrying about whether their loved one would die alone on a ventilator with no visitors allowed.

Of course, these numbers were collected from June on, when practically everyone with underlying conditions had already been fully vaccinated. So if we can say that the 187 unvaxxed with underlying who ended up in ICU, came from (e.g.) the 5% who didn't get vaccinated, then we can say that being unvaccinated with underlying conditions probably makes you 27 times more likely to end up in ICU. Though likely way more than that.

Again, applied to today's ICU numbers, if vaccination of adults was at or near 100%, we would have between 50 and 60 people in ICU.

Going to a staff Christmas policy is a pain in the posterior anyway!

You can hardly have a public health advisory group without the CMO.

He's making statements that should ONLY be coming from government IMO. Outside of the public health message of wash your hands after you wipe your hole he really has no remit to tell people what to do and who to see. And before the usual "it's just advise" he is speaking as if he has the authority to tell people what to do. Stay home, cut discretionary contacts, don't use antigen tests, he's way out of line here.

Debatable, I wouldn't care if he got sick.... he is ignoring global advice to get a vax that absolutely does help.

The most interesting part to me was his mention of having difficulties with booster take-up in the over 60's because of ' hair appointments'.

Right but you said you previously thought he was smart guy. He asks a question about what people who aren't vaccinated should do, and your response is that you don't care if he ends up in intensive care (and dies, presumably).

You don't know to what extent him being vaccinated will help the world, or what his motivations for asking the q were, so I think a bit of perspective is needed on your part.

Some of the sleuthing I did this morning found that in the vaccine trials only 40% of immunocompromised showed a weak or insufficient immune response after. Which is poor compared to the 95%+ for the rest of us, but it does mean significant protection for that cohort. And speaks to the importance of 3rd (or even 4th) doses for this group. It's not foolproof, but it'll make a huge difference.

Yeah a irresponsible Christmas sounds more fun than a meaningful Christmas