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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I never said the Jet wasn't a factor, I said the strength of the jet changed the type of storm that would form, but didn't necessarily dictate the intensity of the storms.

    You keep putting things into buckets 'I was only talking about baroclinic conditions' when in reality, there are lots of different ways storms can form, but there are a couple of decisive factors.

    1. Interactions between hot air and cold air (high vs low pressure systems)
    2. Convection - Heat engine condensing water vapour releases heat which fuels more convection which creates a 'heat engine' that generates a storm

    A weaker Jet stream meanders more, and changes how air is moved around the atmosphere, and can cause tropical air masses to come into contact with air dragged down from the poles

    And hotter SSTs and hotter atmospheric air temperatures, combine to provide more moisture to fuel the heat engine. Cyclogenesis influenced by the jet stream can either help or harm the cyclone from forming. Strong Jet streams can cause strong vertical wind shear, which prevents powerful cyclones from forming by dissipating the energy from the heat engine, but a strong jet stream can also push air masses together and create frontal storms

    The general rule however, is that the more energy there is at play, the stronger the storm. Energy comes from either the temperature/pressure gradient, or from heat content in the SST/atmosphere

    Storms form in the lower parts of the atmosphere, and get their energy primarily from the Ocean, land and Tropospheric heat content. Stratospheric jet streams help to move the energy in the troposphere around, but aren't generating the energy that forms the storm itself.

    Climate change increases the energy budget globally, and it also can lead to a wavier jet stream/weaker polar vortex which can cause tropical air to interact with polar air masses

    And none of what I said precludes any and all of the natural processes. It plugs into these processes and makes some events more likely and where those events occur, there is more energy available (higher SSTs and higher atmospheric water vapour to fuel those heat engines)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    You're backtracking in circles now. We don't get hurricanes in Ireland. The conversation has been about typical frontal/baroclinic storms. You even cherrypicked 2013/14 as being the most active winter on record, yet still ignored the data posted by Oneiric and me to show that your claim is false.

    You don't seem to really know what it is you're saying. The sentence

    Cyclogenesis influenced by the jet stream can either help or harm the cyclone from forming

    for example, doesn't make sense. Cyclogenesis is the formation of a cyclone, so you're saying, so how can it affect itself?

    The general rule however, is that the more energy there is at play, the stronger the storm. Energy comes from either the temperature/pressure gradient, or from heat content in the SST/atmosphere

    Again, back to the fact that our storms have been getting weaker, not stronger. There is also little evidence to show that tropical cyclones have actually been getting stronger, outside of improved sampling and measurement methods.

    Maybe you could answer Oneiric's numerous requests for a comment on his simple little decadal table he's posted a few times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Interesting revelation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    The attempt to create a picture of planetary climate using individual weather events and data sets is a particularly dismal way to approach the Earth science of climate as its procedure does what Galileo and Copernicus once objected to when dealing with conclusions of this scale and scope-


    ". . although they have extracted from them the apparent motions, with numerical agreement, nevertheless . . . . They are just like someone including in a picture hands, feet, head, and other limbs from different places, well painted indeed, but not modeled from the same body, and not in the least matching each other, so that a monster would be produced from them rather than a man. Thus in the process of their demonstrations, which they call their system, they are found either to have missed out something essential, or to have brought in something inappropriate and wholly irrelevant, which would not have happened to them if they had followed proper principles. For if the hypotheses which they assumed had not been fallacies, everything which follows from them could be independently verified." De revolutionibus, 1543 Copernicus

    A hypothesis in solar system research is entirely different to one taken on by experimental theorists as the original meaning was to interpret observations to suit a narrative whereas a hypothesis is now generally considered a guess leading to a predicted conclusion.

    "I know; such men do not deduce their conclusion from its premises or establish it by reason, but they accommodate (I should have said discommode and distort) the premises and reasons to a conclusion which for them is already established and nailed down. No good can come of dealing with such people, especially to the extent that their company may be not only unpleasant but dangerous." Galileo

    The complete disregard for the warnings of genuine innovators is a feature of present day participants in Earth sciences yet this disregard is what has gotten humanity to the dismal position it now finds itself in.

    Post edited by Orion402 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    80% of the global population may already have been affected by climate change attributed weather events

    Its not a particularly controversial finding to anyone who has been paying attention

    According to a new study in Nature Climate change


    Non paywalled version of same report




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I see Ireland is well in there as having had impacts. Just wondering what these are, Akrasia? I certainly haven't felt any, but maybe I'm in the 20%.

    You've still ignored Oneiric's table, hoping it will get forgotten about.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Eamon Dunphy on his latest podcast episode discussing climate change said “we know now from all that we can see and even the most ignorant person can see we’re in a crisis and time is running out”




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Electric vehicles: Ireland ranked fourth most expensive country for charging (irishtimes.com)

    Just not really worth the while for alot of drivers is it? Even with diesel at an all time high of €1.60+ per litre it doesn't make much economical sense to switch to an EV at the moment. Ranges still below 300 miles whereas a decent diesel will get over 500 miles.

    We were promised cheaper electricity as we would be less dependent upon foreign oil and gas when we started littering our hillsides with turbines. Another broken promise - all we have is the promise that supply cannot be guaranteed over the next five winters.

    And still, the carbon taxes rack up, and the temperatures aren't changing either (temperatures should be going down as a direct response - afterall this is the implicit aim of such measures). We're all getting the dirty end of the green stick.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    "temperatures should be going down as a direct response"

    Wow.

    Wow.

    I guess they don't make you do any science tests to become a moderator of a science forum

    Ireland's CO2 emissions have begun to come down, but nowhere near to the level we need to be at to be playing our part in stabilizing Atmospheric CO2

    As long as CO2 concentrations keep going up, global warming will continue to get worse, we will actually need to begin sequestering Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere before we can expect temperatures to start to fall




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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    When was the last time you drove over 500 miles in one sitting ?

    “temperatures should be going down as a direct result”

    Your talking shite again !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Just today! Only one fuel up before I commenced, took five minutes to fill and pay which cost €51.48. Got just under 900km from the fill which equates to two charges of a small EV to get same distance (and would cost €44.72 on my home electricity bill) taking 12+hrs charge time (2 x 6.25hr charges). So you see, it really doesn't add up to any benefit at all having an EV.

    Cause and effect - carbon taxes are being increased to stop emissions, therefore less emissions should mean temperatures should respond to same less emissions and thus fall. Otherwise, what is the point of carbon taxes. If that's shite talk to you, then you really mean that carbon taxes are shite measures.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    If it wasn't for Co2, we'd still be in an ice age:

    "Scientists have often wondered how the planet could have emerged from the periods in which ice and snow covered everything, including the oceans. According to Bekker, increases in atmospheric oxygen levels resulted in low concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as methane and carbon dioxide. This ushered in global glaciations by maintaining surface conditions below the water-freezing temperature. 

    Volcanoes also continued to erupt on the frozen planet, building required high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to exit from climatic catastrophe by warming the planet and melting the snow and ice."

    Rise of oxygen on Earth: Initial estimates of | EurekAlert!

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    From The Guardian...

    Earlier this year, the physicist Christoph Buchal and I published a research paper showing that, in the context of Germany’s energy mix, an EV emits a bit more CO2 than a modern diesel car, even though its battery offers drivers barely more than half the range of a tank of diesel. And shortly thereafter, data published by VW confirmed that its e-Rabbit vehicle emits slightly more CO2 than its Rabbit Diesel within the German energy mix. (When based on the overall European energy mix, which includes a huge share of nuclear energy from France, the e-Rabbit fares slightly better than the Rabbit Diesel.)

    Adding further evidence, the Austrian thinktank Joanneum Research has just published a large-scale study commissioned by the Austrian automobile association, ÖAMTC, and its German counterpart, ADAC, that also confirms those findings. According to this study, a mid-sized electric passenger car in Germany must drive 219,000 km before it starts outperforming the corresponding diesel car in terms of CO2 emissions. The problem, of course, is that passenger cars in Europe last for only 180,000km, on average. Worse, according to Joanneum, EV batteries don’t last long enough to achieve that distance in the first place. Unfortunately, drivers’ anxiety about the cars’ range prompts them to recharge their batteries too often, at every opportunity, and at a high speed, which is bad for durability.

    Are electric vehicles really so climate friendly? | Hans-Werner Sinn | The Guardian

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    €51 euro for a fill what do drive a lawnmower ?

    Where are getting the cost of charging from ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It looks like they've also introduced a tax on personal pronouns.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Kia Rio 1.1L Diesel, gives 65~77MPG depending on road type driven. So a step up from a lawnmower.

    Cost of charging based upon what my earlier linked Irish Times article says. Remember two full charges required to get anywhere close to the range one tank of €51 diesel that a Rio 1.1L diesel can deliver.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Yes, this is a fundamental part of climate change. CO2 is powerful enough of a driver of climate, that it can end ice ages. We're technically still in an interglacial period, but the last time CO2 was as high as it is now, there were no glaciers on Greenland, and there were trees growing on Antarctica, and ocean levels were 20 metres higher than they are today.

    But nothing to be worried about, it's all being exaggerated....

    We're at the beginning of the impacts of climate change. Its already bad for lots of people around the world, but this is just the beginning



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Mine are: she/he/her/him/it.

    This list may change tomorrow depending on my mood and level of self-absorption.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Unlikely you will see Alarmists show compassion to current human suffering. Saving the poor and starving is no longer trendy, that's small picture stuff.

    When I said lets tackle the arson issue with forest fires, Akrasia response was "So lets do nothing"... I was thinking too small, the guy with the jerry can of patrol isn't an issue worth our time!

    More people die from cold than heat, again not an issue!

    More people die from malnutrition/starvation than those who die from crop failure (often loosely tied to AGW), again not an issue.


    The fact that the alarmists are on here, using carbon to fight for carbon reduction says it all!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    If they were serious about Carbon ending civilisations, would the argument be for no cars. Rather than a move from cars with direct carbon out put, to those with ~5% less indirect carbon out put?

    Corporations are merely cashing in on the green wave, the deeper you look into them the less sustainable the alternatives are. Going green merely means to extend the divide between rich and poor, as your reduced carbon foot print is miniscule or non existent.

    Carbon tax is a disproportionate taxing system that is championed as a good thing, it's pure lazy tactics from the government and is a difficult to challenge, if you say no to green tax...well now you support Trump, are science denier and anti-vaxxer . It's indiscriminately reducing the wealth of the lower classes and distributing to upper classes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    There is enough food created to feed the world. You just admitted there that AGW is causing crop failures and such, maybe you missed the brief but the “alarmists” are being alarming about AGW so to say that they don’t care about issues is false. Humanity’s problems are being mostly caused by humanity, war, famine, etc. Humanity has the ability to tackle global warming now and make the world a better place but it’s the nay-sayers that are blocking it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The fact that greenwashing exists and our lack of action so far is literally the entire point of the campaign that we need to act on climate change


    Action not words, sustainable development, equitable action.

    In a world where the global elites can increase their wealth by trillions of dollars in the middle of global crises like pandemics, wars and environmental catastrophes, we have 'useful idiots' all over the place fighting for their 'right' to exploit, murder and destroy in the name of economic liberty



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    'Green energy' is not going to make the world a 'better place'.

    For that, we need a global wide communist system, and this will not be achieved while we have corporate approved 'liberals' pretending to be communists... until, of course, they come face to face with the real thing.

    And I'm all for the real thing.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Not a one day record, not a one week record, not a one month record, not a one season record, but six months of record cold... The South Pole just had its most severe cold season on record - The Washington Post

    However the alarmists are quick to diss the record as a mere blip: "While impressive and unexpected, scientists characterized this record as a mere blip and curiosity as both Antarctica and the planet continue to rapidly warm amid escalating extreme weather."

    Yet a few hot days in south west Canada is empirical evidence of global warming. The double standards are indeed strong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Re. California and rain, this seems to be the narrative now:

    1. Hot and dry, leading to wildfires = AGW
    2. Wet, leading to vegetation-growth = Also AGW

    Nothing to do with the known effects of increased rainfall in northern California during a La Nina. It's a joke at this stage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    The article covers the risk of mud slide because the trees and vegetation are gone.

    “regrowth” “La Nina”… do you ever slip in your own spin?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    You don't seem to understand this Danno. The World is warming. The brutal heat in Canada this year was newsworthy because it is the continuation of the warming trend. If climate change wasn't established science and the planet wasn't known to be warming, then this would have been reported differently, but we don't live in your fantasy world, we live in reality.

    and this kind of extreme weather will become much more 'normal' as the planet heats up. Every other latitude of the planet other than Antarctica is significantly warmer than average this year. All of this was in the article you linked to but you ignored that part because it wasn't what you want to believe

    It is noteworthy that Antarctica was colder than normal this year, and I'm sure climate scientists are looking to understand the reasons why, so they can improve our understanding of global climate systems. One cold winter in the coldest place on earth is not an argument against global warming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Except that it is not true that "every other latitude of the planet is significantly warmer than average this year". South America had a brutal winter with snowfall across southern Brazil - snowfall in regions not seen in decades. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/south-hemisphere-america-cold-winter-outbreak-fa/

    While SW Canada had it's heat dome, there was a much bigger cold dome over Argentina and S Brazil. It is you who lives in a fantasy world where every single human action and cow fart is another inch towards the end of days.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Your linked image is not on that page - but now that you have posted it and I would question the accuracy of it - probably something to do with satellite estimations of temperature... The DMI 80N (Arctic region) temperatures have been below average pretty much all summer long:

    Summer is Day 151 to 242 inclusive...

    From: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    Someone is telling porkies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Yes admitted.. well done, the more you post the more insignificant your contributions become.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Post edited by Banana Republic 1 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The hyperbole is ramped up a notch as the media outlets jostle for position ahead of COP 21. It'll be a feeding frenzy of clicks for the next while. It's like Christmas and Valentine's day for Hallmark all in one. Business will be booming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    It’s actually COP 26, at least get some of the facts right.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,633 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    No university gets funding that depends on their success in making better climate predictions with space weather or solar factors and without CO2. No government funded research aims to find out if natural forces are more important than carbon dioxide. No team is offered two week foreign junkets 26 years in a row if they show that CO2 is largely beneficial and irrelevant and the IPCC is a one-sided propaganda tool.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    What could these natural cause be ?

    These guys are the propaganda merchants. The big cheeses from big oil face Congress today, but we already know who butters you’re bread.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Reading the Phoenix Mag the last few weeks I see Enda Kenny is now a lobbyist for more destructive and useless windfarms while ex-green party councillors and Labour TD's are now lobbiests for Data centres etc. - says it all really!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    2021 is only the 5th warmest on record according to the world meteorological agency



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Only the fifth? That's not good enough, gonna put an extra nugget of coal on the fire tonight to see if I can tip it to being the warmest ever - got two months still at this to go! Fairly optimistic of the WMO to call it with November and December still to go...




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    What they say: About our fuel sources (sseairtricity.com)

    SSE Airtricity - proud to be Ireland’s largest provider of 100% green energy

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    What happens: SSE Airtricity to raise energy prices from December 1 (rte.ie)

    SSE Airtricity said it will again increase its standard household gas and electricity prices from December 1, becoming the latest energy provider to raise prices in recent weeks.

    The supplier is increasing the price of its electricity by 9.4% and the price of its gas by 9.8% from December.

    ...

    SSE last increased its prices in September, when it upped the price of its electricity by 10.6% and its gas by 10.7%.

    ...

    The latest increase will add around €115 a year to the average household's annual electricity bill...

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So, with 100% green energy as they clearly state they provide, these charlatans are still increasing prices! We were promised that with renewables we'd be more energy independent and therefore much cheaper. We were lied to. SSE are traditionally one of the more expensive retailers of electricity. Joined them a few years ago and couldn't wait until the 1yr contract was up to switch back to another provider.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    It's a well-known fact that the price of wind has gone up due to the pandemic. It's all to do with supply and demand. The price of rain has also gone up due to shortages after the amount that fell in Germany.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,597 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Airtricity don't generate electricity, they buy it from the energy market who are free to sell the energy to anyone at market price. The fact that fossil fuels are going up in price is driving up the cost of energy for everyone. If Ireland was more reliant on Gas, your bill would be going up even faster



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