Will (or indeed should) the UK ever rejoin the EU?

In Greece parents leave their kids in hospital as they can't feed them.

In another generation the EU will be a lot different. Greater ever union will be further down the road. Can't see the Brits wanting to join it.

As Guy Verhofstadt said " To survive in the long-term, the Eurozone will need a proper banking union and a fiscal union."

In a simple answer, No they won't rejoin even if Labour get back in.

Ireland will now be facing big questions regarding the EU itself, will Ireland have to join the EU army because that's the direction things are going, that's what macron wants increased militarization and an EU with proper power.

At the moment Poland is defying the European court of justice saying it has no jurisdiction over the polish supreme court. The EU has no real power here because it cannot send around the EU police force or army to enforce its edicts . That's why macron wants an eu army

When was it ever a "trading agreement" - the very first treaty said it was a political project - furthermore, how could it possibly be a single market without common rules enforced by a common court and freedom of movement of goods, services & people?

And why would Ireland ever want to go back to a place where the UK starves Ireland, deprives it of medicines, blocks trade,wages economic & propaganda wars - to force Ireland to submit to the will of a vicious corrupt British elite?

No thank you.

Impossible to say now whether Brexit will benefit the UK or not, it is simply far too early to make any assessment. Covid of course has muddied the waters with every problem in the UK being used as a middle class hissy fit and by the Pro Remain sections of the media to say ' I told you so'. It will be a generation before any of us can look back and make an honest assessment. Regardless of the motives for leaving and the rights and the wrongs of it, leaving a trading bloc like the EU and untangling from it was always (and it would be the same for any country) going to cause a period of substantial adjustment.

Impossible for the Irish to have a rational discussion on it as we have so firmly staked our claim to being good little Europeans and blowing smoke about how good the EU is and awful the Brits are and it is a little tedious.

Like most things the reality is much more nuanced. Ireland and many other member States have big decisions ahead about where the European Project goes in terms of ever reducing national sovereignty and big decisions like an EU army etc. Clear as day that the power lies with Germany with French support and there is a clear push to increasing EU power. If that is what people want fine but rational and logical discussions need to take place. A recent simple example is the massive u-turn on our tax policy, personally I think it is morally the right thing to do but anyone under any illusions that it was an Irish decision is deluded, clear and simple messaging from the EU, Macron etc made it absolutely clear that Ireland had no room to manoeuvre on this one and we did what we were told despite it being directly against a core Irish sovereign policy.

Ireland isn't in a place to have these discussions now as all we seem concerned about is watching and hoping that Brexit turns into a sh*t show so we can be proved right. We have to move on.

Personally I hope the UK prospers and in time as the middle class hissy fit recedes they need to move on. I have doubts as to increasing EU powers as ultimately history teaches us that policy will be driven largely by German needs with the French tagging along.

I read very little actual of any sense in any sections in the Irish media or on message boards of this nature that is actually asking wider questions about where we go with the EU but plenty of tedious and boring 'Brexit disaster' commentary making out that the UK is falling apart at the seams due to all the morons who voted for Brexit. This has been going on since 2016 and after 5 years you might think we could move the discourse on a bit.

I think whatever's left of it might re-join one day, but before the EU would even have them back they'd need an overhaul. A switch to a decent democratic voting system full PR would be great but those in power in the UK have resisted that for generations.

I'm just really grateful to be here now, way better. At this point it's starting to affect those middle class older voters who were so keen on it in the first place (and, ironically, the least vulnerable to having their jobs/businesses turned upside down as a result). As gaps appear on the supermarket shelves and fuel becomes more scarce, but you must never underestimate the British electorate's ability to blame anyone but themselves for the consequences.

The UK will never give up sterling the UK will never accept the Schengen Area.

Unless the EU it self’s changes then IMO I don’t see the UK will ever re-join the EU in its current format.

UK elected governments come and go EU Presidents come and go people’s opinions change much can happen in 10 years.

As regards economics, the UK has raised the highest trade barriers in history with 50% of its trade. Outside of wartime, it's actions are without precedent. I seriously seriously question your economics knowledge if you can even suggest that won't have severe and uncompensatably bad effects on the UK economy. Seriously.

As regards the French - you go and believe whatever you want about Macron - if he truly is that powerful then we should be quaking in our boots and glad we have the EU to protect us from him & have him on our side.

As regards the Irish border - the UK was fully entitled to leave with or without a deal - Ireland however is perfectly entitled to say "UK shall keep its commitments to no hard border or else there will be no beneficial trade deal for the UK". You say that the current solution is unsustainable - when it is by far the most sustainable solution. A border with 300 crossings which took up 1 third of the British army and a large amount of the North sea wealth to maintain won't be sustainable. The only 2 other sustainable options are UK re entering the single market or a United Ireland.

Just because we have to listen to fabricated British narratives that it is "not working" - when the UK cannot set up GB borders because they would result in total chaos and the UK refused longer transition periods for NI to make it look bad - and the UK tries (and failed) to spark loyalist violence and the UK needs to bring forward its nonsense attacks on the protocol because the fuel, food & worker shortages etc etc are becoming too obvious to ignore - and the negative comparisons

On British BSE infections - you haven't been paying attention - it's back again & foreign markets for British beef are collapsing. That's EU & China gone - so obviously unscrupulous people will be more than happy to look to the now unprotected market next door with access to the EU.

Same economics effects work for UK sewage-seafood - they've lost their EU markets and Ireland is now unprotected .

Time will tell on the economics front but you are continuing to assume that all the UK is doing is increasing trade barriers.

The border agreement is a fudge, yes Brexit caused this problem but the Irish, EU and the UK signed a ridiculous agreement to try and tick every box, it will continue to cause problems until all sides agree a border (and not it doesn't have to be a big fence with soldiers) has to exist. They exist across the world. Yes a United Ireland gets rid of the problem and that may fix it but that is for the North to decide on. The reality is now the North is in the UK and the UK is outside the EU so therefore a border in some shape or form has to exist.

As for BSE one cow in Somerset , seriously?? Ireland had a BSE cow and China banned us for over a year if I remember correctly and only recently reinstated us. China being that paragon of food safety and an open free society, it's political....

Further on the economics argument: it isn't simply a question of trade deals either. The UK shrunk its market (for supplies, visa-free ready manpower) from 500 million people down to 70 million. Previously it could rely on logistic system redundancy shared with that 500 million - HGV drivers could come and go, etc. Now, that it is alone it needs to build massive amounts of otherwise useless and resource draining redundancy and storage at every step of its supply chains. All of that needs to be paid for by the British.

They also need to pay for tens of thousands of public and private sector customs agents plus their accommodation and other business expenses plus pay for vets etc.

Parroting Brexiter slogans of "you just have to wait 50 years" and "nobody gave true brexit a chance" is simply a denial of the basics of economics. I suppose as an faith based ideology it is something it shares that with communism.

I think Fash the issue with so much discussion on here and you are following the pattern is a lack of middle ground perspective.

The arguments for economic self harm that Brexit brings through increased trade barriers with the EU are sound but there is no willingness to see it may bring other benefits. And then you post comments above about empowering our corrupt secretive......etc etc and expect me to take it seriously and then one cow in Somerset turns into a plague of BSE infected meat.....just like Ireland didn't become a BSE infected hole when we had one cow with BSE a couple of years back.

And then your comment on loyalist criminal smuggling gangs, what are you talking about ?? They are hard at work currently, I believe there are only two options for the border. You either have one or you have a United Ireland and that is not our decision. Either way we will have a drugs / smuggling problem as we do today.

Brexit whether you like it or not has happened. We as Irish people can either continue on our current path of pouring scorn on it and forget the benefits of having 65 million people plus next door to us who are more than happy to buy our goods and visit us for holidays etc etc or be a touch more mature, take the higher moral ground and see how we can work with it. Ultimately I know which I would prefer to see but if you want to continue down the path feel free to do so. I just don't see how it benefits Ireland especially considering the shared history of these two islands.

For me it is time to change the tune but you do what you see fit.

1. As regards brexit "benefits", while I'm sure certain sections can argue for intangible benefits (just as North Korea can argue for the intangible benefits of not being connected to the rest of the world), from an economics perspective, there is no version of reality where brexit makes economic sense - unless a magical world of Narnia or a super wealthy undersea and populous Atlantis just off the shore of Scotland exists. Otherwise, no - the benefits are at best tiny the economic costs are vast as are the political and other costs - the inability to influence EU legislation affecting British manufacturers & service providers (and around the world), to speak internationally on behalf of Europe, to offer freedoms to its people and to valuable and sought after migrants who can go elsewhere, to send refugees back to France, to hold hassle-free international court cases, the loss of stability and push for independence of UK regions etc etc

As regards BSE- tell that to the Chinese who banned British beef. Again where is all of that worthless and partly BSE infected beef going to go now? Are you honestly suggesting it will not be sent to Northern Ireland? Are you honestly suggesting that the UK is (and will continue to be) operating the NI protocol rigorously?

Any border region brings particular opportunities for smuggling based on the customs arbitrage - that is a consequence of brexit reintroducing differing customs areas - are you suggesting that the loyalist smugglers are not going to exploit the opportunities of lowered checks?

As regards options, again there are 5:

1. An Irish sea border (which the UK chose);

2. An economic purgatory which the UK cannot survive;

3. A United Ireland;

4. No brexit;

5. A SM brexit (giving up control).

Those are the options facing the UK. It is, as you said, not for Ireland to choose on behalf of the UK. Of note, the only way for the UK to avoid a United Ireland and no brexit for long is to maintain a sea border. A hard border in Ireland would be rejected by the local population and kick off a relentless push on both sides of the border to bring about a United Ireland, would cost a fortune in military assets for the UK to patrol & would be occurring at the same time as the complete economic collapse of the UK & the final shredding of any international standing and friendships it had.

And I'll change my tune when the UK stops duplicitously reneging on agreements and trying to **** over Ireland. If the UK needs to be broken for that to occur - then so be it.

Edit: I would also note that in order for brexit to have been a success, the EU needed to be destroyed. When that didn't happen, there were only the 5 "humiliating" forms of brexit mentioned above. Brexiters real issue is with the humiliation that any form of realistic brexit brings to the UK - and the fact that admitting brexit was a stupid idea is itself humiliating.

- and what else do you call trying to duplicitously renege on various treaties in breach of international law to force Ireland out of the single market/to subject it to British control and to threaten to reignite violence if they do not get their way other than "trying to**** over". Why, when even the Americans & Kiwis amongst others have condemned UK behaviour, are you excusing it?

I am perfectly happy to see UK succeed - but not at expense of Ireland. As the UK wishes to force Ireland to bear the costs of the choices of its political elite, you are damned right that I view this as a "them or us" situation - where there is no cost too high that they need to bear for their own decisions. These are their choices- they need to live with them and they need to bear the cost - not us. If the cost to ensure that Ireland remains free and does not acquiesce to a permanent border through the country is the complete economic collapse of the UK (a mere 7% and falling of Irish exports) - that is price I'm happy to see the UK pay for its freely made choices.

Prior to EEC/EU membership, Irish exports were 90% to the UK and its currency was tied to sterling. Ireland was not independent. The UK decided to join the EEC - and Ireland was obliged to follow. The UK initially decided to join Schengen, Ireland followed, the UK then thought again - and Ireland copied it. If the UK made its threats to Ireland to starve the country and wage an economic war at that point, Ireland would have been forced to its knees.

Ireland hasn't changed the relationship with the UK - the UK has. Did they think or care about Ireland when they decided to brexit in the way they did? Answer: obviously not - they thought they could force Ireland out of the single market and back under the control of corrupt British elites.

And those loyalist gangs are going to be much happier with no checks to the GB mainland, high food standards in Ireland/the EU and customs differences to arbitrage.

Now imagine if instead of that border being in a few ports it was spread out along a couple of hundred miles with over 300 crossing points.

So I fully agree with your point that Ireland needs to force the UK to comply with its obligations to fully operate the NI protocol to ensure that doesn't happen.

You can say the NIP is a "load of nonsense" - but it (i.e. an Irish Sea border) is the ONLY solution to a non-SM brexit where NI remains in UK, there is no return to a border in Ireland & Ireland remains free. It's all well and good to say you don't think it's a perfect solution - but then you explain (and defend) your choice.

Ireland's demands of the UK were very simple and limited - and the UK immediately promised them - "no hard border" . The NIP was the only solution the UK could come up with and accept- what else would you want ireland to do? Invade the UK? Occupy Northern Ireland?

Johnson put himself in his position by advocating brexit, forcing through the hardest of hard brexits AND wanting a withdrawal agreement. He didn't have to sign the withdrawal agreement - he and his 80 seat majority could have left with no deal - "no deal is better than a bad deal" - remember that?

"No hard border" was the price Ireland wanted in return for the UK having a withdrawal agreement - they got the withdrawal agreement they wanted, now they must pay the relevant price.

So what it your solution: you honestly believe that Ireland should accept a hard border? Obviously those 300+ crossing points would need to be reduced (again) to something manageable - which routes would you block? The same as last time?

A border through Ireland will obviously be militarised - how many minutes would pass by at the 300 crossings dividing villages from their hinterlands before the first British customs official forcing checks on locals who don't accept brexit or believe they should be part of the UK gets shot? Do you think it would be more or less than 5 minutes? Why?

How much smuggling would there be through this border? How quickly would GMO foods& British BSE beef take before being found in every town in Ireland? What would the criminal gangs do with all the money they made from that? Start a charity?

If any Irish politician signed a treaty accepting that, how long do you think that politician would stay alive? Longer or shorter than Michael Collins? How long would their political party stay in existence? Do you think it would be gone and lost forever within a week or a month?

I'm very interested in your response.