Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

One way or another, another lockdown won't work. We know the primary spread occurs in close quarters; within households, in busy indoor spaces.

The fact of the matter is that there has always been an 80/20 issue with covid. That is, 80% of the infections are caused by 20% of the people. Those who take the least caution, who have the most close contacts. Those who held parties in their homes, who went to lock-ins, who ignore the need for covid certs.

There would also be a significant crossover between this 20%, and people who won't take vaccines.

So in the event that another lockdown went into force, the ones that we're locking down for - the unvaccinated - are also the ones least likely to bother restricting themselves. How would that message be sold? "You're locking down to protect the health service from the people who are too selfish to do it". Like a lead balloon. The demand would be to push back on the unvaccinated rather than punishing the rest of us for their selfishness.

There is a considerable surge capacity open to us, and the private hospitals are there too. Even if ICU numbers keep rising, they're not (yet) rising in the familiar exponential ramping curve that signals a loss of control. And they're unlikely to. This will be another jump to a flatline that will be maintained.

At 92% adult vaccination, to see an exponential surge would be massively out of step with everything we know. Even our current case levels are somewhat inexplicable in the context; most other countries with less vax rates have much lower case loads. The only explanation is our open mixing with the UK, who have similar but level ICU & hospitals numbers as the ones we're approaching. The UK has the equivalent of ~500 people in hospital in 80 in ICU, and has done for about 2 months.

So we will top-out as well.

I don't know why people are talking about lockdowns, it isn't lockdowns that are the problem, it is the far more insidious "restrictions".

Health service under its annual winter pressure and all the clapping on balconies not curing cancer fast enough, what do you do? Well maybe you bring back in the 11pm pub closing times to protect A+E departments, how could anybody argue against that? Don't you care about our front line heroes?

Kicking fathers out of hospitals, sending children home from schools, stopping people going to watch music or sports, all these have been done without being in LOCKDOWN, so why couldn't they be done again?

The world has never stopped for any pandemic in the past ( only temporary) Life will go on.

Restrictions are still here, they never left.

Horrendous for a country with such high vaccination rates since early Summer

Norway have relaxed all restrictions too

As have the Swedes

Yes. Rampant in my school. My kids have it, now I have it too. Went for the PCR test for myself just to be sure since I'd be exposing a lot of people if I were an index case, but the kids' rapid tests came back negative so not too worried. Most parents of children in school using rapid tests too, so you'd kind of wonder a bit if there's not a number of undetected Covid in the lot. I'm vaccinated but immunosuppressed and high risk so can't relax completely about it.

If they're symptomatic and rapid tests come back negative they should be fine, I know it's hard not to worry though

Put a charge on getting a covid test. That will put a stop to the vast majority of pointless testing.

What’s the point of the vaccines if we need another lockdown? There’s no way another lockdown will happen imo, short of a new catastrophic variant.

The people who spend every waking moment on these threads won't know what to do with themselves if it happens. I hope they've stocked up on tissues.

So are you back from rehab then? 

Irish people now of the view that to be safe and keep others safe, get tested.

They no longer social distance or do anything to reduce chances of getting covid. They then think they're amazing citizens because they get a free test.