Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

I concur Leroy42.

The Tories have nothing beyond self-interest. They'll make loaded, bad faith arguments and will take the worst possible course for all concerned.

They are still basically using NI, and Ireland frankly, as a wedge to try and chip away at the EU.

Whether that's chipping away at cohesion among EU members to try and damage the EU politically, or trying to create a condition where the EU bends it's trade rules to suit the UK, i'm not sure which. But i don't think the Tories care much either as one result may lead to the other.

Why would they? If the plan is to cripple the NI protocol, they can just do nothing. No solutions, no implementation. Try to weather any EU escalation (that's the only real control) - and see if they can encourage the population of NI to vote against the protocol in 2024.

About the "diversion of trade" thing, Raoul Ruparel has the following (slightly disturbing) comment that it was from the May agreement and worked more meaningfully within the "backstop" draft - but wasn't changed together with the change to the "front stop".

Raoul Ruparel (@RaoulRuparel) Tweeted:

@SamuelMarcLowe @TomMcTague It was just lifted from the original May Protocol (think it was Art 18 then). EU made a mistake in not redrafting it given change in Protocol. The trade diversion line was meant to avoid the type of routing Sam says under the backstop. But obviously makes less sense given redraft https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1445311054301605893?s=20

I disagree. The uK needs something to blame, and they also cannot let NI be doing better than GB. That is the big issue with the protocol. They aren't in the least bit worried about either sausages, DUP politicians or the union itself. Many have come out to say that losing NI would be a price worth paying for BRexit.

Remember that Johnson resigned from the cabinet under May stating that no PM could ever have a border in the Irish Sea, then promptly went and delivered one.

Without Art 16 what has Johnson and Frost left to blame? How can they expect to convince that the pain and issues suffered by GB are worth it when NI is sitting pretty? And if NI continues to do reasonably better, then Scotland independence becomes an even bigger probability.

Covid also plays an important factor. All the economic support measures that had to be conjured up need the money to come somewhere.

This has emerged more and more over the last 2 weeks as the Political problem the Tories have with Northern Ireland.

While there was fuel shortages at stations nationwide, Northern Ireland alone had none, same regards food shortages. The protocol's success and Northern Irelands lack of issues makes the Brexit related issues of the rest of the UK stark. It is as you say the control group, and doing fine.

So if Northern Ireland is highlighting whats going wrong, it becomes the issue Johnson has to deal with and drag it into the dirt with the rest of the UK.

But how do you say things are so bad in Northern Ireland we need to invoke Article 16 while there are no public examples that can be given? The DUP will always whinge, but without headlines on Newspapers no one in UK will see issues. And if article 16 is invoked, and the EU respond and tighten things quietly, people all across the UK will be asking what was worth this?

One thing I disagree with is the "nothing is going to be triggered". UK likes to have its symbols that it waves in front of its brexity population. "Triggering" A16 is an easy symbol to do. You don't need to do very much after, you could do exactly everything you planned to do anyway - but you can go back to your people to show you've done something.

Well they did unilaterally extend the implementation dates. So they are not against testing the EU resolve.

As mentioned in Fash's post, triggering A16 is all PR and has very little real impact. Frost can slam the table in the HoL, Johnson can give a speech saying the UK has had enough and its time for the EU to accept the will of the people (ignored the will of people who effectively voted their approval of the deal in 2019 election).

And then nothing much will change, but all the journalists spend their time watching people go in and out of meetings. And that all the shortages etc will be over one the EU finally agree to a proper deal.

Actually he'd love to go into the next election with Brexit still being an issue - Labour wants brexit to go away as an issue - Johnson wants his culture war.