Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

It has been pointed out that EAs do not have sway on the price, a lot actually use a strategy of going in under what they think a property is worth to garner interest it is the demand and lack of supply that sets the price. The EA gets very little in the way of commission if a house sells for 50k more and its actually in their interest to sell quicker at a lower cost to get the next house going so if there is going to be another bubble it will not be the EAs fault.

It has also been pointed out that the price garnered for a property is down to supply/demand, size, location and quality. Demand is hard to measure the exact same house in the same location and lesser quality may get more due to there being more demand for that house. Proof is in the pudding see what the house gets, if it goes for more then you have to admit that your supply vs demand is the over riding determinant factor on the price.

Will interest rates rising have as much impact as would otherwise be the case in a 'normal' market? It seems to me - and maybe this is all anecdotal - that for the houses that people back in Celtic Tiger days would have borrowed to the hilt to pay for, let's say the €600K+ segments, this time around people are mainly financing with a large cash element, and the average mortgage amounts are lower compared to properties of the same selling price as in years past. Are there any stats on this I wonder? If the cash element is larger/mortage amount is lower, higher rates are not quite as scary I guess.

Given the length of time to get from sale agreed to sold to the property price register, the 8/9 per cent increase figures are based on properties sale agreed at the start of the summer, maybe before in some cases. Things were hot on every single property I enquired about back then - eg one house was 40k above asking when I called about it the day it was listed. Absolute madness.

I took a break from looking at that stage and have recently started again and houses that are priced realistically (ie highly) are going for around asking in most cases from what I can see. The mad bidding now is on houses that, based on the trend in 2021, are priced too low to begin with.

Long winded way of saying I would guess that the CSO will be reporting increases leveling off (albeit at a very high level) towards the end of the year.

Have been helping a relative progress a house purchase in Cork, and when we went looking during the summer supply was tight. However difficulties with the title has stalled the purchasing process for the moment which made them look again at the market and supply and value have definitely improved.

They've already lined up viewings of houses that could save them 20% of what they went sale agreed on a month ago.

A very good thing for your friend there are no other interested parties in the market looking to buy at this time who might bid the prices up.

From another thread:

"Latest property we’ve stoped biding on was listed at 475k and we walked with 6 others still actively bidding (according to EA) currently on 520k… estate agent was glowing with the fact there were 6 battling it out"

"Similar story, two I viewed recently:

Listed for 380 current bid 455

Listed for 375 current bid 433

Both almost 20% over asking and not gone sale agreed yet"

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058202484/looking-to-move-wtf-is-going-on-with-prices#latest

Blatant lie from the minister about the CB approving of the Shared-Equity scheme

A lot of people no longer want or will put up with an apartment - that is one of the fundamental shifts in the market due to Covid that has driven house prices up, so yeah, probably peak apartment, but I don't think that indicates an impending price collapse. However, it does appear the intense upward price pressure is reducing in markets like Australia and the US so I would say we have probably plateaued pricewise, for the moment.

When I went viewing with them in June and July interest was really intense. The first place they were interested in went into a protracted bidding war but three months later still hasn't gone sale agreed. I reckon there were engineering issues that would only show up on survey.

The house they did go sale agreed actually only had one other bidder and only went agreed at the asking price. This is Cork though and I'm not that familiar with it. I'd said I'd go along with them to their next viewings so it will be interesting to see what interest is like compared to coming out of lockdown.

The inference from me is that they are getting out before inflation kicks in as costs are already running hot and show no sign of slowing. Perhaps an absolute peak in the market though I feel there is road left to run in terms of increases in prices, but there is scope for an almighty correction.

We bid on 5 houses in the period of January - April 2021. Outbid on all 5. €1-€1.5m range.

Over the past 2 months all 5 sales have fallen through and be re-offered to us. 3 we were no longer interested. 2 we are considering. Of the 3 that we were re-offered and not interested in, 2 are still sitting on the market. 1 just resold at €175k below the original SA price.

The two we are considering are currently €100k-€200k below the original SA price (and our own previous bids) from March and have been there for the last couple of weeks.

There’s definitely something unusual going on. Have had 3 different EAs telling us the ‘sale agreed’ fall through rate is ridiculously high at the moment. It’s gotten to the point where I don’t want to get into bidding wars because I’m 70% sure the person I’m bidding against is just going to pull out anyway. Tricky time to be buying.

We’ve narrowed our search down to primary one area now, and at one time there’d only be 3-4 properties of interest.

Starting to become clear now that the same person was sale agreed/highest bidder on 3 of the houses at the same time. Very hard to trust any counter offers when that kinda stuff is happening!