FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

Only if FF change their leader and realise they won't be the main party in the coalition.

So after 6 weeks of whining about a two bit appointment, sf/IRA move literally one point.

Not exactly something to shout about. Looks like they have topped out.

People see SF and FF in a coalition but if FF grassroots think things are bad now, what on earth makes them think that being a junior partner with SF will make things better? Honest question.

I can definitely see a situation where both FG and FF sit it out, if these polls numbers are true in 4 years time, and I don't believe SF will get that high a poll come the GE, then it will mean it will be up to SF to get Labour, the SD and a bunch of Indos on board to form a government. No easy task at all.

Best thing for FF and FG would be to just let it go and let SF into power.

But they are too stubborn and stupid to realise this.

It must be difficult to give up a power addiction. The FFG junkies will do anything to get that power fix. They have been hooked now for 100 years.

There was an interesting interview yesterday on Newstalk's On the Record with Gavin Reilly when they talked about the rise of SF in the polls.

Even at these numbers, they said that at most they would be topping out at 60 seats and would need two other parties to form a government. (You need 81)

It was also said that good SF polling numbers will come at the expense of other similar left-wing parties, as in they will eat up their vote, which means a centre-left coalition is all the more difficult.

They also talked about SF's record in the north which is less than stellar and the GE of 2020 which was more of an anti-establishment vote rather than a ringing endorsement of SF policies. At the moment SF has an aura of infallibility about them, which is easy when you are in opposition, but in government a very different story (see SF in NI for example of how ordinary they are).

I realise this is not the SF thread, but if we are talking poll numbers about SF and the government, it is worth listening to that discussion on Newstalk yesterday.

Very clever by Leo, he can do all the leaking himself 😁

It is very rare for any party to hit 81 seats. I think Fianna Fail did it once in my lifetime.

The Fine Gael record for the past 10 elections.

2020 = 35

2016 = 50

2011 = 76

2007 = 51

2002 = 31

1997 = 54

1992 = 45

1989 = 55

1987 = 51

1992 = 70

Average over 10 elections = 51.8

If the numbers are there all of the left will row in behind an SF-led government. They would be under massive pressure from their supporters and grassroots members, even ones not over-fond of SF to do so, given the opportunity to for a government without FF or FG may not come again.

Ireland for ages was an outlier where FF regularly before 1977 achieved an overall majority. Simply put the PRSTV system produces coalitions. FPTP like the UK produces an overall majority.

What we have now are coalitions. This government was a coalition, the last one was (even though it was a minority government technically), the next government will be a coalition.

If SF are going into government, they will need probably another 20 seats if not more.

Where are they going to come from?

On a very good day, the SD's could get 10. Labour maybe 7 or 8 but in reality. That still leaves them short.

SF+Labour+SD+Indo's/PBP

That is your next government probably and it's going to be as unstable as anything, mark my words. Would give it two years.

Why shouldn't the Greens be involved? If it's a choice between another FF-FG arrangement and an SF-led left coalition my money is on them going with the latter.