Following on from
this thread
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Only if FF change their leader and realise they won't be the main party in the coalition.
Ah they will change leader alright. Main party would depend on seat numbers.
FF won't want to be a mudguard and SF need FF much more than FF need SF.
So after 6 weeks of whining about a two bit appointment, sf/IRA move literally one point.
Not exactly something to shout about. Looks like they have topped out.
FG/DUP, FG/ Hutch, FG/Dinny's puppets, this is easy,
Did you read the article? Two different poll results were released..
Not really, we are a long long way from the next general election. Current government would have just about enough to be re-elected.
Seems like the government have completely lost the youth vote and middle age vote.
If SF can mobilise the youth vote like before they will win the next election comfortably.
I reckon FF will do the right thing and oust MM and join a coalition with SF.
Mary Lou as our first female taoiseach.
An election is years away. One thing though, it puts big pressure on SF. Expectations are high too high IMO.
And even if they got 30% in a GE they would still fall 20 odd seats short.
People see SF and FF in a coalition but if FF grassroots think things are bad now, what on earth makes them think that being a junior partner with SF will make things better? Honest question.
I can definitely see a situation where both FG and FF sit it out, if these polls numbers are true in 4 years time, and I don't believe SF will get that high a poll come the GE, then it will mean it will be up to SF to get Labour, the SD and a bunch of Indos on board to form a government. No easy task at all.
SF will find it hard to break into a lot of traditional FFFG areas where there are well known names who will still get a seateven if national poles are poor .We saw in the Dublin one recently Sf were well out of it .Unless some of the left wing groups come together the seats are too spread out for any party to get close to 65 or 70 seats that make forming a government easier to put together .
Best thing for FF and FG would be to just let it go and let SF into power.
But they are too stubborn and stupid to realise this.
After the confidence vote we need to understand why FOI requests are being 'blocked' by our so called democratic government. Many journalists have been bringing this issue up.
It must be difficult to give up a power addiction. The FFG junkies will do anything to get that power fix. They have been hooked now for 100 years.
Some interesting stats on this Twitter thread. ..
There was an interesting interview yesterday on Newstalk's On the Record with Gavin Reilly when they talked about the rise of SF in the polls.
Even at these numbers, they said that at most they would be topping out at 60 seats and would need two other parties to form a government. (You need 81)
It was also said that good SF polling numbers will come at the expense of other similar left-wing parties, as in they will eat up their vote, which means a centre-left coalition is all the more difficult.
They also talked about SF's record in the north which is less than stellar and the GE of 2020 which was more of an anti-establishment vote rather than a ringing endorsement of SF policies. At the moment SF has an aura of infallibility about them, which is easy when you are in opposition, but in government a very different story (see SF in NI for example of how ordinary they are).
I realise this is not the SF thread, but if we are talking poll numbers about SF and the government, it is worth listening to that discussion on Newstalk yesterday.
His summary is interesting and I would agree with his, 'SF are populists' remark.
Very clever by Leo, he can do all the leaking himself 😁
60 + remnants of FF(probably rebranded as Democratic Ireland or some such moniker) =70 +5 independents and confidence and supply from SD or Labour, on the other side I'd guess FG down in the mid 20s , transfer toxic with spoilt brats in charge
It is very rare for any party to hit 81 seats. I think Fianna Fail did it once in my lifetime.
The Fine Gael record for the past 10 elections.
2020 = 35
2016 = 50
2011 = 76
2007 = 51
2002 = 31
1997 = 54
1992 = 45
1989 = 55
1987 = 51
1992 = 70
Average over 10 elections = 51.8
SF 60
FG 20
FF 10
..
That is 90 TD's.. who are going to make up the other 70?
Talking through your hat.
If the numbers are there all of the left will row in behind an SF-led government. They would be under massive pressure from their supporters and grassroots members, even ones not over-fond of SF to do so, given the opportunity to for a government without FF or FG may not come again.
A government without FG and FF is almost certain to be a one-off, given the complete lack of ability and experience on the opposition benches. Beyond the normal mess they would make, there is a real risk of significant long-term damage to the country.
Ireland for ages was an outlier where FF regularly before 1977 achieved an overall majority. Simply put the PRSTV system produces coalitions. FPTP like the UK produces an overall majority.
What we have now are coalitions. This government was a coalition, the last one was (even though it was a minority government technically), the next government will be a coalition.
If SF are going into government, they will need probably another 20 seats if not more.
Where are they going to come from?
On a very good day, the SD's could get 10. Labour maybe 7 or 8 but in reality. That still leaves them short.
SF+Labour+SD+Indo's/PBP
That is your next government probably and it's going to be as unstable as anything, mark my words. Would give it two years.
We have a generation of people faced with the prospect of retiring into homelessness.
We're experiencing significant long term damage.
Why shouldn't the Greens be involved? If it's a choice between another FF-FG arrangement and an SF-led left coalition my money is on them going with the latter.
A SF-led government would easily solve that problem through a significant increase in emigration and the consequent decline in population.
Yeah we might end up with hugely expensive but hugely dysfunctional, unfit for purpose public services. Oh wait......
We might end up with a massive national debt. Oh wait......
We might end up with croynism and corruption. Oh wait......
We might end up with ridiculous rates of personal taxation. Oh wait......
We might end up with excessive and unsustainable level of public expenditure that there's no appetite to tackle. Oh wait......
We might end up with over generous and unsustainable welfare rates (I include pensions here). Oh wait......
We might end up with a govt that prioritises welfare recipients over working people. Oh wait......
We might end up with a dysfunctional housing system that will takes years to fix, that's if we even bother to try. Oh wait......
etc etc etc
i still think the next government will be primarily sff, plus a few others, we ll see
Maybe the Troika will be forced to return......like the last time it had to come as a result of an experienced and competent govt and opposition....
That is true, but the thing is SF could well just eat up the left vote. We saw it in the last election where left-wing TD's lost out because of the strong SF turnout.
E.g.
Dublin West, Ruth Coppinger, and Joan Burton lost out as SF had a big 1st preference vote. You can see them running two candidates there next time and no way would either her or a new Labour TD get back in there. Indeed the Greens are vulnerable there, as there are enough votes there for 1 FG and 1 FF TD with the possibility 2 SF TD's on a good day for SF.
Dublin Fingal
Lousie O'Reilly had enough votes there for herself and a running mate, Labours Duncan Smith snuck in for the last seat. That won't happen next time.
E.g. Dublin South West
Paul Murphy is a goner next time out, as Sean Crowe with 30% of the vote has plenty for him and a running mate.
E.g. Dublin South Central
Brid Smith or Joan Collins looks to be a goner next time out too, as Aengus O Snodaigh had a whopping 39.3% of the vote.
Moral of the story. The left-wing vote will collate around SF, which is good for SF but they won't be many other like-minded SF TD's left to do a deal with.
Certainly, Labour or the SD's won't have 25 seats between them. In fact, they may only have about 10-12 seats, which still leaves SF many seats short.
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