Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

No. The implementation of Brexit was always going to be a harm minimisation process; there is no realistic form of Brexit which benefits the UK and makes its situation look attractive to continuing member states.

Varadkar said this morning that he is very confident that the UK will offer to extend the grace period so it looks like Oct 1st is off

The grace period will never end at this rate

I've seen a lot of talk about that. The Brexiteers not realising that EU drivers do a lot of drop offs and collections within GB itself - they don't just deliver a big load to one warehouse and head straight back to the Continent.

Yeah I remember reading the same joke, at the time i thought it was pretty good satire but it really seems like it may become reality which is brexit in a nutshell.

The grace period was extended unilaterally, the EU did not agree to this. The EU has a legal case against the UK but it was paused over the summer. This legal action will be advanced further if the UK do anything to provoke the EU into feeling that the UK are trying to pull a fast one

Yes, it does strike me as making the EU look extremely weak. Sure the UK are clearly proving every day that not only was the deal itself a crock, but that Brexit itself is a disaster and they are doing everything they can to avoid having to actually face it, but it does seem that the UK is being allowed to bend and ignore rules simply because they are important and trade is big.

What does that say to the US, China and the likes of India? Make a deal, complain you didn't get exactly what you want, and simply ignore the bits you don't like and the EU will simply push everything into the never-never.

So the UK are extending grace periods which to me means they have to stick to EU regulations of all products that could enter the EU market which throws a spanner into their drive to be individuals and their race to change their specs to suit what they want.

In addition to this they have delayed their implementation of imports checks into their country meaning any person company or country can still export to the UK any products without any standards or regulations as they will not be checked upon import to UK.

This will mean the UK flooded with cheap crap, home businesses will not be able to compete with the influx of cheap products especially if they are trying to keep up standards for EU countries.

This will lead to UK businesses not being able to survive and reducing the export share of UK goods and products. Thus giving a greater share to closer EU businesses who will then be able to take over where closed UK businesses have left meaning an export of wealth and a reduction in size of the UK GDP.

Not weak - the EU are doing everything in their power to avoid confrontation in NI. If there was no GFA or peace process, they would be telling the Brexiteers to get stuffed.

No, I don't see it as a positive either. It definitely suits Ireland short term, the government here just want things to continue as they are, the Brits stop their shouting at us for wrecking their glorious Brexit (they are getting their way here, so will be a while before they spit the dummy out again), all is quiet up North, NI border stays open etc. I am unsure if the govt. here actually care much now (IMO) how or when UK implements the NI protocol, but I think the situation is very unstable.

The UK made a unilateral decision they were not going to implement any more of the agreement until October. Nothing happened, indeed the EU stopped legal action against them. Now they've are pausing things as they are indefinitely, another unilateral decision breaking the agreement.

The next step will be to start to phase out "Protocol" related document checks and the like at the ports and see how the EU responds to that action.

An NI business can't be "banned entirely from future access to the EU market"; that's the whole point. There are no controls of any kind on trade in goods across the NI/RoI border, so such a ban could not be enforced, and of course the EU has no right or ability to operate within NI, fine NI firms, etc, etc.

The EU's recourse, if noncompliant goods start entering the Single Market via NI, is not to take action against individual NI firms, but to take action against the UK, in the form of enforcing the Protocol.

The EU's in quite a strong position here, because we have an unquestioned right to enforce the Protocol - the UK has freely signed up to it and chosen to be bound by it. So we don't have to prove that noncompliant goods are entering the SM, or get the UK to agree or acknowledge that they are, or anything of the kind. Because non-enforcement is simply forbearance by the EU, we can change our policy and enforce it at any time when, in our own judgment, non-enforcement is having consequences for us that we don't like.

It seems to me - and I think not just to me - that the UK's strategy for quite some time now has been belligerent, performative denial of its obligations in an attempt to provoke a confrontation with the EU, so that the painful consequences of Brexit can then be blamed on EU intransigence, bullying, etc, etc. The EU strategy of not enforcing the Protocol in full until events make it necessary, but also not saying what events would make it necessary, seems to be to be quite a wise response to that. The EU will decide if, and when, and over what, there will be a fight, which prevents the UK from selecting a battle-ground that will play well to the certified loon wing of the Tory party.

Wouldn't it be the WTO who might take exception to the British open borders situation? The EU doesn't really have to do anything, does it really make any great difference to them whether Britain allows anything and everything into the country? (I'm asking, I am not sure).