Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

My experience is the opposite - certain doctors want to blame everything on obesity. My previous GP blamed everything on my weight - I was overweight but not obese. ("I'm having trouble with symptom A" "lose weight and it will go away", "Condition B has flared up again" "that'll be because you put on weight".). My new GP has a broader perspective, and while she doesn't pull any punches about my weight either, she's more likely to look into other potential causes - and as a result a couple of issues have been sorted, leaving me more brain space to deal with my weight.

I've a similar story about an extended family member but everytime they end up in A&E etc they're told first and foremost it's down to lifestyle.

Everyone knows being out of shape is bad for you. It's not the doctors fault if there's medication out there that can help with the issues being unfit/fat can cause.

They'd be unethical loons if instead of prescribing those meds they instead said go eat some vegetables and workout more, now get out of my hospital.

The only specified locations for masks after 22 October are transport and retail, everywhere else seems to be all about personal responsibility but it's all still contingent on cases being low enough.

Hmm, NPHET still predicting 2500-3000 cases a day this month, 500-700 in hospital and 80-130 in ICU. That's their optimistic projection!

Yeah that seems strange .

Quit stalking him.

And Orla Hegarty, Aoife McLysaght at al!!

And medical facilities also

So, that's coming from the letter of 25th August. What that letter says is;

So, technically speaking the models are kind of out of date by the time the advice is given. That said, we all scoffed at the previous models, and then it turned out that the mid-range scenarios were actually fairly close to the money. So it may very well be that NPHET are expect a schools bump.

The letter also explicitly sets out the five pillars they believe are necessary for the lifting of all restrictions;

1. Two weeks have passed after we hit 90% coverage of 16+ (We'll hit this pillar well before the end of September)
2. An assessment at the time that circulation & impact of the infection is at a manageable level
3. Hospital numbers are low OR reducing
4. There is a plan in place to ensure continuing capacity in regard to contact tracing, testing, sequencing, etc.
5. "The absence of a new variant of concern with significantly increased potential for one or more of the following: greater transmissibility, increased virulence or vaccine escape."

In reality the only open question will be #3. The reason 22nd of October was chosen is because all of the models suggest that one way or another, hospital numbers will be down or dropping by that date.

#5 is an emergency brake. At present there are no variants of concern that are poised to displace Delta, and thus it is incredibly unlikely for one to appear and spread in the next 6-8 weeks. Nevertheless it would be negligent of them not to include that.

I can see that argument alright, but I'd say the majority of people WFH in shared accommodation already absolutely hate it. The next step is a landlord putting one of these hellscapes in the shared sitting room and selling it as a dream rental for busy young professionals.

Hopefully that would be outlawed and stamped on, because nobody wants that.

What they should look towards is providing grant money for the conversion of unused small commercial spaces (e.g. old shops) into a shared working hubs so that people can have a workspace five minutes from home. Give people more options than "your bedroom or the office two hours away" and you get to keep all the benefits of widespread home working.

So ,as of today it seems there are 4 main models for the next 6 weeks or so.

Is there anywhere where the general public can see them along with what they are predicated on and what variables are taken as the most important?

And what about the earlier models ?Are they similarly archived anywhere online?

@muddypuppy wrote:

I was referring to the models back in July (?) that had everyone thinking NPHET were off the deep end. The images in that Twitter thread have been taken from NPHET's most recent projections, which as I mention were already a bit out of date by the time the advice was published.

At the moment, we seem to be tracking quite strongly against the most optimistic projection from the most recent models. Which is nice. If that holds, we can expect to peak in a couple of weeks at < 500 in hospital and < 100 in ICU.

So I believe ICU beds and all that with it are quite expensive to set up from reading posts around here…What about standard hospital beds? Could we not have created/set up more in last year or so? Or is that silly suggestion? I know it is not that simple but could anything have being done realistically?