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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #12842
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820001#Comment_117820001

    A small fraction of our daily contacts occur in Stadiums, festivals and bars. It’s either that we have more contacts on average or we are genetically more susceptible to the virus



  • #12843
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117819774#Comment_117819774

    I dont follow

    Ireland is far more cautious than the rest of Europe



  • #12844
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820569#Comment_117820569

    Tony Holohan didn’t stop being CMO, de Guscun remained head of the NVRL. Etc. They have day jobs



  • #12845
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117819492#Comment_117819492

    There is no probably about it

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-had-eu-s-most-stringent-lockdown-this-year-analysis-finds-1.4557746?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fireland-had-eu-s-most-stringent-lockdown-this-year-analysis-finds-1.4557746
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-to-reopen-pubs-by-july-as-coronavirus-lockdown-nears-end/

    DUBLIN — Ireland, which for months has maintained the toughest pandemic restrictions in Europe, has finally charted a path back to normal — which means it’s almost time to hit the pub.

    At that time in May Europe were more relaxed than we are now!!!

    https://www.thejournal.ie/public-wanted-stricter-lockdown-esri-5473598-Jun2021/


    IRELAND’S COVID-19 CONTROL measures have been consistently less restrictive than the majority public opinion wanted, an Oireachtas committee will hear today.

    Behavioural economist Professor Pete Lunn, who tracks public behaviour for the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), will tell the justice committee that the “overwhelming majority” of the population supported the public health measures and would have preferred them to be more, not less, restrictive.


    And there's why



  • #12846
    humberklog
    Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 10,829 Mod ✭✭✭✭humberklog


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820586#Comment_117820586

    Yeah mind you large events (indoors and outdoors) were considered Super Spreader events in the past.

    Here's a graph I came across today, looks to be up to date. Interesting enough although I've had graph and data fatigue for at least 6 months.

    E98cPr4XEAYhDdk.png




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  • #12847
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820057#Comment_117820057

    Delta makes up over 90% of polish cases has done for over two months.



  • #12848
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820586#Comment_117820586

    Possibly be that Irish are more inclined to go for a test or ask for a referral or be referred for a test if just feeling a little under the weather.

    I



  • #12849
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820661#Comment_117820661

    Our testing rate is not the highest though



  • #12850
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,542 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    The reality is that if the hospital numbers that are in hospital were there because of covid we wouldn't be opening up, in my local area there is a multiple of the cumulative amount of cases we have had since this started, so far I have not heard of anyone seriously ill, living with covid.....



  • #12851
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,402 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820643#Comment_117820643

    Eastern Europe has always tended to lag in waves compared to Western Europe. There's the week on week growth, I would suspect over the course of the next month the chart you linked may be inverted to some extent.

    image.png




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  • #12852
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820636#Comment_117820636

    University Oxford monitor covid19 restrictions. I wrote about it here.

    https://seanmcm.medium.com/how-strict-have-the-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-been-in-ireland-22c80ea06222




  • #12853
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,701 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Over this last month or so, covid has got real for me.

    When you watch it on the news, and hear of deaths, it's sad but basically numbers that go in one ear and out the other. Of course I took it all seriously and got the jabs asap.

    About a month ago my brother caught it and was hospitalised. He was very ill for about a week, but thankfully he recovered but is now at home with oxygen. He struggles to climb the stairs and recovery will be slow.


    And today i just heard of the death of a next door neighbour, who has a holiday home here. He was fully vaccinated. I'm in shock tonight and it just shows that even the vaccinated have to take some care if they are old and perhaps frailer than most.



  • #12854
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Close to 2 years into this now and still no real scientific evidence that lockdown is a strategy guaranteed to work…

    Plenty of evidence that countries using harsher restrictions actually seem to get hit harder by waves. Likely due to less natural immunity and people going a bit crazier after months of freedom removed.



  • #12855
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820870#Comment_117820870

    Knowing Ireland had the strictest suppression measures but very high case numbers I wonder was it a real life example of the Peltzman effect?

    Knowing that NPHET removed all personal responsibility from Irish citizens and ordered closures of businesses,outdoor amenities etc, did people subsequently end up living life and socialising in the home and in more confined unsuitable environments where the virus could spread more easily?



  • #12856
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,039 ✭✭✭Polar101


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820643#Comment_117820643

    And 615 in Northern Ireland. Those EU graphs leave out our nearest neighbour, who are a major contributor to any waves over here.

    Edit: Source was this: https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/covid-19-statistics (page 8 on dashboard)



  • #12857
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Again, why are we higher cases but higher vaccinated population?



  • #12858
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,402 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821287#Comment_117821287

    Compared to who?



  • #12859
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821296#Comment_117821296

    I was reading that Ireland has very high level of cases per capita, but also one of the higher vaccinated rates in Europe. Did you not hear that? Maybe I picked it up wrong.



  • #12860
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,402 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821386#Comment_117821386

    You didn't pick it up wrong, I heard the same.

    I was asking you, compared to what European country (cases per capita)?

    Or do you just hear that and don't bother to see why that is the case or even look at countries doing worse or better than us in Europe?



  • #12861
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I don't really see anyone doing anything stupid, bar a few incidents like around the recent matches and we're at like 90%+ of adults vaccinated.

    It's extremely frustrating to see the coverage of this kind of concluding 'oh woe is me, Ireland's obviously doing something stupid.' I'm not sure what else we can do?

    Hospitalisations are much lower than in January, but the case numbers are worryingly high. We're basically following the same path, albeit at a lower level, the UK is on, which is way out of line with the majority of the EU at the moment.

    Hospitalisations, particularly ICU and deaths per capita are probably the more useful item to track. Our vaccine rates however are very comparable to a lot of Nordic countries, Belgium, Spain etc, so while they're extremely high we're not unique in that.

    This wave seems to have very much started in the UK and has moved into countries with most contact with the UK either by proximity or travel patterns. We saw this before, waves start in the Western European countries, get controlled and then kick off in Eastern Europe. That can only really be down to travel patterns and delayed spread.

    I'm not really buying the behavioural explanations. The behaviour here hasn't been high risk. It just really hasn't. You can point to a few exceptional circumstances like matches and so on, but compared to many places we haven't been doing anything crazy and have by and large been very cautious, yet it's still spreading.



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  • #12862
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820707#Comment_117820707

    It's not the highest but it may be the most triaged. We're kinda always focused on testing people who are suspecting they're symptomatic who've called a GP or self referred, and we seemed to spend little time actually getting baseline readings, information on geographic spread, types of environments and all of that.

    We should have always had a significant element of random testing. Setup stall outside Aldi or something and just ask for volunteers. It would be as useful as anything else. I don't really understand why that wasn't the case from the very start and I saw it mentioned on these forums too and people were sort of given patronising responses.

    I mean, other than triggering self-isolation responses, the tests don't cure COVID. So, it would make a rather significant amount of sense to go out and do some random testing and see if we can ascertain what the baseline levels are in the population.



  • #12863
    Toodles_27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 184 ✭✭Toodles_27


    I think the fact that Ireland has not embraced and come on board with antigen testing may be playing a part in our higher case numbers.

    In other countries people use antigen tests provided by their respective governments either at home, before school/colleges/work or in pharmacies. LF test will only provide positive result for the period of time someone in infectious. PCR positive window is far greater.

    There is no way of knowing how many ppl in other countries are testing positive with a self administered LF test and just not bothering with a follow up PCR test. Why would you? Seems like a waste of time and resources? If you get a positive result, you follow public health advice regarding isolation etc.

    Personal responsibility and not being treated as if the population is stupid may be where we are again the outlier of Europe. That and our proximity to the Uk.



  • #12864
    Lumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,279 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Even if true Covid rates are 2.5x our reported rates from non random testing, you'd need to do 1,000 random tests to find one case. Small numbers make for bad statistics, and we currently have some of the highest rates of infection in the whole pandemic.

    Plus it's practically difficult to eliminate sampling bias, would it not tend to attract hypochondriacs/worried well and exclude people for whom subsequent isolation is disproportionally expensive and inconvenient?



  • #12865
    techdiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭techdiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821547#Comment_117821547

    Very true regards antigen testing. I can't understand the opposition to it. I was feeling a bit ropy, but nothing that would raise a flag but I did an antigen test. It came back positive. If I didn't have access to an antigen testing I probably wouldn't have known and as such could have spread it around more. As a result of the test I'll now be isolating.

    How many potential cases could that save and by extension perhaps even hospitalisation and death?



  • #12866
    Toodles_27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 184 ✭✭Toodles_27


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821718#Comment_117821718

    Exactly same for me and our family. CMO’s reluctance is unfathomable and possibly criminal at this stage.

    Not saying it’s perfect but it is certainly a tool in the armoury that we are not utilising, particularly with schools/colleges returning. It can only help.



  • #12867
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821718#Comment_117821718

    It is the efficacy of antigen v PCR tests and people assuming they have a particular status. NPHET never liked that scenario and have always opposed them.



  • #12868
    Toodles_27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 184 ✭✭Toodles_27


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821756#Comment_117821756

    I’m aware of the question off efficacy however, they worked effectively and their results were confirmed by PCR for every member of our family and extended family who were noted as close contacts.

    In addition my husband who is fully vax never displayed symptoms and as a result was advised that he did not need to isolate and could continue about his business. I mentioned to contact tracer that regardless we would be doing an antigen test before he left for work every morning just as an added precaution - and I was berated and had to listen to a lecture from him on the phone about how they don’t work and can’t possibly be reliable! I was being irresponsible! Who was it hurting??? It could only help!

    Antigen should be used in addition to PCR in the battle against Covid. Most countries - who are doing better than Ireland - use them readily. We remain an outlier in this regard.



  • #12869
    techdiver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭techdiver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821756#Comment_117821756

    But here is the thing. If you start from the point of correct assumption then you mitigate that. We know PCR is better but what you do with antigen tests is catch more cases that otherwise wouldn't be caught as people won't routinely submit to pcr.

    I don't see embracing antigen testing as having a downside or making things worse.



  • #12870
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117821203#Comment_117821203

    I don't know, I thought it bizarre that an aerosolized virus suddenly stopped being infectious in a supermarket.



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  • #12871
    Lumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,279 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Toodles_27 wrote

    Antigen should be used in addition to PCR in the battle against Covid. Most countries - who are doing better than Ireland - use them readily. We remain an outlier in this regard.

    I sort of agree with you (I was posting similar a few weeks ago citing Germany and Denmark), but to counterbalance that the UK has relied (if that's the right word) heavily on antigen testing and it doesn't seem to have helped them that much.

    Case in point: the Boardmasters super-spreader event.

    https://www.boardmasters.com/info/site-rules
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cornwall-58309660

    I think what annoyed people most about the NPHET/antigen communications debacle was the sense of being lectured like children. I know that's been a criticism levelled at Tony since at least last autumn by some people, but not so much at the others. It's like the wheels came off and they started shooting from the hip like a bunch of Sinn Fein councillors.



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