Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

It's not clear that will happen at all, as we rapidly draw closer to 90% of adults. Part of the assumption in that is that the relationship between cases and ICU rates will stay the same. For full population comparison they are only at 61% whereas we are at 64% and rising.

As I said " going by " his " maths " ! Never my strong point

But I do think at the rate we are going we will hit 100 or over in ICU before we come out of this wave .

Fair enough . Have to say I was so busy looking at the study to see where you had found the 2 month waning that that got missed, apologies so .

Edit have reread your post again and can't find encouragement for vaccination really there , so I think you need to clarify that .

On the graph there is obviously going to be more risk of breakthrough infection for the oldest in the group which will skew the data for the younger ones .

Don't know why they didn't just keep it separate for each age group. That would make a lot more sense , no conflation.

No , it is not obvious that without vaccination , asymptomatic infection will provide immunity for variants, but with vaccination has been shown to be the most effective .

There has been a study published a while ago that does indeed show that vaccination in those previously infected does appear to provide very long lasting immunity . Not a reason to go out and become infected but would be of hope to those concerned about a possible mild breakthrough infection post vaccination .

I am also just pointing out the fact that this UK study among others still does not take into account long term immunity of tcells and memory b cells . Until they do along with antibodies , we will all be anxiously waiting and wondering to see what happens next .

Good read though , thank you for posting .

Don't want to be speculating about it really .

Suffice to say imo it is not flattening yet .

As I said not a cause for panic as much slower burn than previous waves .

If you can say to me in 6 weeks that I was wrong , I will be happy about that too.

Even if it did peak at 100 that's well within the capabilities of the health system.

Might be of interest to people here. An algorithm by some Oxford project to calculate your risk of dying from COVID-19.

Risk Calculator | QCovid™ risk calculator

My risk of dying is 0.0008%, my risk of hospitalisation is 0.02%. This is based on previous data so factors in social distancing etc.

Stop spreading fake news floorpie, my detailed analysis of your situation indicates you are an extremely high risk individual and should be locked up ;-)

Meanwhile elsewhere the Irish media were recently reporting that COVID was getting ready to tear through the younger cohorts and that up to 20% of those that catch COVID might expect to suffer from Long COVID.  

It's going to be difficult to ignore:

1. Solicitors love Long COVID. At this stage, we all probably know multiple Long COVID candidates and notice that they are beginning to form a long queue. Note: this is an entirely rational response to the turmoil they have been put through. However please get ready to pay for their future years of suffering due to this virus. You can take solace by remembering that those solicitors are protecting our public safety, as your stranded 25+ year-old children play Xbox in your spare bedrooms! 

2. Our government's efforts to equate societal depression due to their lockdown strategy with the actual symptoms of Long COVID. What's that, "brain fog", you say?!

"After that it will be open away?"

Respectfully, but after what we have seen this past 18 months, how on earth can you be so naive?

There will need to be booster shots etc but lockdown and such is over.

The damage done will take years to recover from and the wall of money that was pumped into the economy has distorted things in a way that is hard to predict the outcome.

Most people have antibodies now, that's as good as it gets.

Sorry are you referring to me ??

You are so wrong .

Jeez hope it doesn't.

Would like to see how it adjusts for that .