Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

You'd have to think hospital numbers and cases are levelling off now.

If 45% fully vaccinated sounds mad, consider that unvaccinated people are about 20% of the population now. In other words, the unvaccinated are overrepresented in hospital numbers by 250%.

As we know from previous press conferences, there's a bit of devil in that 89% detail though. "Being treated for covid" doesn't necessarily mean that they were admitted to hospital for symptoms of covid. For some it means they were tested on admission, had covid with symptoms, and are therefore being treated for it. Or that they developed symptomatic covid in hospital. "Being treated for" could mean they're getting paracetemol and antitussives.

Even if the original reason they were admitted was a broken leg.

They seem to be. Cases rising ever so slightly, but well within the bounds of a normal statistical drift. Hospital numbers have remained stable or dropped 3 days in a row now.

So roughly:

1.7mil unvaccinated / 3.1mil vaccinated (1.82 multiplier)

127 unvaccinated in hospital (vaccine aside), we would expect to see 231 vaccinated, but we've only seen 110.

32 unvaccinated in ICU, we would expect to see 58 vaccinated, but there's only been 7.

Obviously it's very rare for under 12's to need ICU care, so removing them from the unvaccinated population would see an even bigger difference.

It would be great to see the age's and vaccination status of cases and hospitalizations as it would be needed to really see the impact from vaccinations.

One day is not a trend. 3 days is a trend, but it's too short to make any longer predictions. On first glance, hospital numbers appear to have stabilised, but you need to have been through a full 7-day cycle because the discharges and admissions themselves peak and trough over the course of the week.

35% of the whole population are not vaccinated, but there are just four covid-positive children in hospitals. So for the purposes of determining the vaccinated population, we need to exclude the under-18s. Which is kind of hard now. So at best guess, somewhere between 75% and 85% of the adult population are now fully vaccinated. Which means that around 20% of the adult population are not vaccinated, yet represent 52% of the hospital admissions.

Just in terms of age in hospitals, its vague but this is all they gave:

Hospitalised Cases

63% 50+

31% 19-49

6% 0-18

ICU Cases

58% 50+

42% 19-49

@godzilla1989 wrote:

The 95% efficacy rate was based on attack rates over 3 months. So you want to divide by 91 instead of 365. Gives 17 people a day.

Indeed, those values were also calculated on older variants with lower attack rates. Efficacy against Delta is believed to be more like 88% with attack rates in household settings of ~50%. If you take a 50% attack rate and 3 months, then you have a ceiling of about 186,000 vaccinated people who could develop symptoms. Or about 2,000/day.

Outbreak info slide here from HSE

Those nursing home numbers aren't great.

The outbreaks range from 2-47, so one pretty big one

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-19outbreaksclustersinireland/COVID-19%20Interim%20Weekly%20Outbreak%20Report_Week32_2021_17082021_V1.0.pdf

With over 500k pfizer doses having being delivered this week and Nursing home residents very close to 8 months post second dose, one would think now is the time to just go in and get them all done pronto!

Focussing on the size of the pool of unvaccinated vs number in ICU is missing the point. Saying "vaccines are x% effective" is also missing the point. The fact is that, even though vaccines do reduce the likelihood of symptoms upon infection (and you should get it if you're an at-risk person), they do not prevent infection adequately overall. It is unknown if they prevent death in people who do become symptomatic (even though this meme is trotted out in media every day). Most importantly, the effectiveness of vaccination wanes quite quickly.

Here is some very good data released this week that analyses effectiveness during the Delta period vs before, from UK: finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf (ox.ac.uk)

Figure S4 on page 29 shows the way in which efficacy decreases, by age group. E.g. in the 35-64 age group, 75 days after 2nd dose of AZ, it's not effective at all. Vaccines are extremely effective in people who were infected at some point prior to vaccination. Extrapolating each trend line forward does not show promise for any vaccine. It's even worse when you consider that these odds ratios are based on symptomatic cases.

As such, infections will continue and vaccinated people will continue to have severe outcomes. And this is with restrictions still in place! The only solution is to stop focusing on total vaccination, as this wont work. Booster shots should be prioritised, and given to at-risk people only, and all restrictions removed.