Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

47 deaths a day is absolutely miniscule in the UK.

The reality is, the stats already prove greatly reduced mortality. Most of those dying with covid are vaccinated - the caveat is that they are all over 50.

The death rate in over 50s has declined 10-fold compared to same group unvaccinated. So vaccines do work, and the link between cases and deaths in UK is 1/10 or lower of what it was previously. The surge is not coming.

Also - your assumption that deaths would double every 12 days to be 600/day by September - deaths dont double by themselves, they are related to the cases (though much lower than prev waves). Your ridiculous assertion that deaths will be 600/day by september implies that cases will be over 512k PER DAY. For reference the UKs highest prev peak was 82k in the middle of christmas wave (no vaccines) and that was an outlier, the trend then was around 32k per day which is where they are now.

Think they're opening back up the drive through testing centre near Christ the King girl's school in Cork. Was closed for ages but now there are some national ambulance vans in there and people are doing things, probably setting up again.

Unfortunately the HSE are using Vanilla.

The only dogma here is yours, hell bent on seeing the UK fail for some reason despite the widely accepted success of vaccines. The vaccine work, we are seeing it work already.

You're right that nobody knows *for sure* how things will unfold, but statistics can tell us the bounds of whats possible or not.

600 deaths per day and 500k cases per day is not possible. As you said, it simply wont happen - so there are no lessons to be taken from that, because it hasnt happened and it wont in future. Its a scaremongering type prediction. The UKs deaths previously peaked at just over 1200 per day, the vaccination impact is looking like we'll see at most, 1/10 of that. So double where we are now to ~120 a day.

Your prediction of 600/day was unsubstantiated nonsense based on nothing

It works like that until you run out of people.

When more than 9 out of 10 adults in the UK now have some form of antibodies according to PHE you have to say it's pretty much game over. Natural infection plus vaccination will get them to 95-98% coverage fairly soon.

We aren't far behind. Vaccines are estimated to have prevented 46k hospitalisations in over 65s alone. In Europe its very close to be becoming endemic and that needs to be recognised. It's still potentially dangerous to a certain cohort of people but vaccinations are more effective than flu and mortality rate is currently lower in Covid than flu in the USA anyway (as a result of vaccine). Haven't seen stats for Europe

Also needs to be an eye on vaccinating the rest of the world soon. Uptake will be lower and access to vaccines is going to be a huge issue going forward in the developing world

Someone earlier was talking about cases "doubling" every two weeks. This only makes sense if there's the assumption of exponential growth. However there's no evidence for this in the UK data at present. In fact if we take the data at face value, current growth in the last couple of weeks is not even linear.

Another point to note is that we're not seeing the sharp rise in deaths with which previous waves have been associated. Either the lag is much greater (previously it has been about two weeks) or else the link has largely been broken.

We tend to think of the UK as taking a big risk and Ireland learning from this experiment, but it may be that we're biased due to having had restrictions for so long. It may be Ireland that is taking the risk.

Something having doubled doesn't mean exponential growth. A number could rise linearly (as seems to be happening in the UK currently) over a period of time and still double at some point but it would not be exponential growth.

Consistent doubling (or some other multiplier) over a time period, does indeed mean exponential. I've already shown how the values have consistently doubled over a given time period. Thus, exponential.

If you take a linear example, let's say deaths increase by 1/day. They double from 1 to 2 on day 1. Then it takes 2 days to double from 2 to 4. 4 days to double from 4 to 8. And so on. That's not exponential. The doubling time is getting consistently longer.

Deaths going from 9 to 16 in 15 days. Then 16 to 38 in 15 days. That's exponential. The doubling time is (practically) consistent.

We’re going to need to get seriously huge levels of vaccination by the looks of it, or some % of some cohort is going to just keep ending up in hospital.

We've a huge advantage in the sense of our uptake being very high and conspiracy theory buy in seems very low. I think we can get carried away with how big that is because there’s a noisy group of a few hundred people, who are very active on social media and a lot of crazy from the USA being heard over here. It seems to be completely unrepresentative of reality.

It’s probably lots of things. Im hopeful that the good weather might keep us outdoor for a month or so as the vaccines get to really high levels.

I'm scheduled for a second shot of Pfizer soon, and more of my family and friends seem to be heading towards full vaccination or first doses or Janssen 1 dose, so hopefully as the summer progresses this grim picture will get a lot brighter.

If I was in my early twenties I would be partying every second day and taking new girls out. This is what your life for. Not for that miserable existence young people (and not only young) experienced in the last 1.5 years. Tony and his crew of pretty much useless academics can just f off.

The spikes are also likely to be in that age group due only being relatively recently reached by vaccines in the U.K. and only just beginning to be here.

Hopefully the HSE will fly though the age groups.

The 35-45 “bulge” is really huge btw. That’s our largest demographic. So the likelihood is they’ll get though younger cohorts much more rapidly.

If you look at Ireland’s population, our “boomers” are 30 years younger than the US equivalent. So you’ve a different profile of rollout. The same is true with comparisons with Germany etc